509
FXUS66 KMTR 161255
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
555 AM PDT WED JUL 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 347 AM PDT WED JUL 16 2025
- BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND BEGINS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
- LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.|
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 347 AM PDT WED JUL 16 2025
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
THE MARINE LAYER IS AROUND 2000 FEET THIS MORNING, WITH STRATUS
BLANKETING THE A GOOD PORTION OF THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST.
STRATUS IS ATTEMPTING TO SNEAK INTO SOME OF THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTH
BAY AND INTERIOR PORTION OF THE EAST BAY, BUT IT'S PROGRESS SEEMS TO
HAVE HALTED BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. FOR THOSE UNDER THE BLANKET,
FOG AND PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. BY MID TO LATE MORNING, YOU GUESSED IT, STRATUS SHOULD BEGIN
TO RETREAT TO THE COAST LEADING TO SUNNY SKIES FOR THE INTERIOR.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL, WITH INTERIOR BAY
AREA HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WHILE COASTAL OR STRATUS
INFLUENCED AREAS ARE CLOSER TO THE MID 50S TO LOW 70S. FOR THE
CENTRAL COAST, INTERIOR HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 90S
AND IN THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S FOR COASTAL OR STRATUS INFLUENCED
AREAS.
FOR THOSE ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. RH RECOVERY
LOOKS TO REAMIN POOR TO MODERATE, WHILE WINDS REMAIN ONSHORE.
DIURNALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
ALONG THE COAST, MOUNTAIN GAPS/PASSES, AND ALONG RIDGETOPS.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 347 AM PDT WED JUL 16 2025
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
COOLER WEATHER ON TAP THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH THE MARINE LAYER
COMPRESSING TO ABOUT 1000-1200FT AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING GETS
SLOWLY PUSHED OUT OF THE REGION. A WARMING TREND FOLLOWS FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTWEST,
WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP THE MARINE LAYER TO ABOUT 1000FT OR SO.
STRATUS WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS PROMINENT DURING THIS PERIOD, SHOULD
RETURN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING RETURNS. THIS
SHOULD A GRADUAL COOLING TREND AS WELL PUTTING TEMPERATURES CLOSER
TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 545 AM PDT WED JUL 16 2025
ALMOST COMPLETELY WIDESPREAD CIGS ARE AFFECTING THE REGION WITH
LIGHT WINDS. INLAND CLEARING BEGINS IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING WITH
MOST TAF SITES GOING VFR IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE HAF, WHICH KEEPS CIGS THROUGH THE THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS LOOK TO STAY LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
INCREASE INTO LATE THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. EXPECT WINDS TO
REDUCE INTO EVENING AS MVFR/IFR CIGS BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND FROM THE
COAST AND FILLING OVER MOST AREAS BEFORE EARLY THURSDAY.
VICINITY OF SFO...MVFR CIGS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINAL THROUGH THE MID
MORNING BEFORE CLEARING. WINDS STAY LIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE BREEZY WEST WINDS RETURN. THESE WINDS REDUCE INTO
THE NIGHT AS MVFR CIGS FILL AROUND THE SF BAY AND FILL OVER SFO
ITSELF IN THE LATE NIGHT. THESE CIGS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR,
LINGERING INTO LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...CIGS LOOK TO LINGER THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
AND RETURN EARLIER THAN SFO IN THE NIGHT.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...IFR/MVFR CIGS WITH LIGHT WINDS LAST INTO
THE LATE MORNING. WINDS BECOME MODERATE INTO THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON AS CIGS ERODE OVER THE TERMINALS, BUT EXPECT CLOUD
COVER TO LINGER OVER THE MONTEREY BAY AND OFFER SCATTERED CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR MRY. WINDS WEAKEN AGAIN INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH IFR CIGS MOVING OVER THE TERMINALS.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM PDT WED JUL 16 2025
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODERATE
SEAS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH SOME
REBUILDING TO BECOME ROUGH IN THE OUTER WATERS BY SATURDAY.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...MURDOCK
MARINE...MURDOCK
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