219
FXUS66 KMTR 161750
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1050 AM PDT WED JUL 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 347 AM PDT WED JUL 16 2025
- BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND BEGINS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
- LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 854 AM PDT WED JUL 16 2025
THE MARINE LAYER REMAINS FAIRLY DEEP AROUND 2000 FEET WITH SATELLITE
SHOWING WIDESPREAD STRATUS ALONG THE COASTLINE, WITHIN THE NORTH BAY
VALLEYS, AND SALINAS VALLEY. DRIZZLY CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED ALONG
THE COASTLINE WITH TOTALS RANGING FROM 0.01" TO 0.04". TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ON TRACK TO WARM INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR
CENTRAL COAST AND FAR INTERIOR EAST BAY. NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 347 AM PDT WED JUL 16 2025
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
THE MARINE LAYER IS AROUND 2000 FEET THIS MORNING, WITH STRATUS
BLANKETING THE A GOOD PORTION OF THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST.
STRATUS IS ATTEMPTING TO SNEAK INTO SOME OF THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTH
BAY AND INTERIOR PORTION OF THE EAST BAY, BUT IT'S PROGRESS SEEMS TO
HAVE HALTED BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. FOR THOSE UNDER THE BLANKET,
FOG AND PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. BY MID TO LATE MORNING, YOU GUESSED IT, STRATUS SHOULD BEGIN
TO RETREAT TO THE COAST LEADING TO SUNNY SKIES FOR THE INTERIOR.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL, WITH INTERIOR BAY
AREA HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WHILE COASTAL OR STRATUS
INFLUENCED AREAS ARE CLOSER TO THE MID 50S TO LOW 70S. FOR THE
CENTRAL COAST, INTERIOR HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 90S
AND IN THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S FOR COASTAL OR STRATUS INFLUENCED
AREAS.
FOR THOSE ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. RH RECOVERY
LOOKS TO REAMIN POOR TO MODERATE, WHILE WINDS REMAIN ONSHORE.
DIURNALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
ALONG THE COAST, MOUNTAIN GAPS/PASSES, AND ALONG RIDGETOPS.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 347 AM PDT WED JUL 16 2025
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
THE MARINE LAYER IS AROUND 2000 FEET THIS MORNING, WITH STRATUS
BLANKETING THE A GOOD PORTION OF THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST.
STRATUS IS ATTEMPTING TO SNEAK INTO SOME OF THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTH
BAY AND INTERIOR PORTION OF THE EAST BAY, BUT IT'S PROGRESS SEEMS TO
HAVE HALTED BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. FOR THOSE UNDER THE BLANKET,
FOG AND PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. BY MID TO LATE MORNING, YOU GUESSED IT, STRATUS SHOULD BEGIN
TO RETREAT TO THE COAST LEADING TO SUNNY SKIES FOR THE INTERIOR.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL, WITH INTERIOR BAY
AREA HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WHILE COASTAL OR STRATUS
INFLUENCED AREAS ARE CLOSER TO THE MID 50S TO LOW 70S. FOR THE
CENTRAL COAST, INTERIOR HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 90S
AND IN THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S FOR COASTAL OR STRATUS INFLUENCED
AREAS.
FOR THOSE ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. RH RECOVERY
LOOKS TO REAMIN POOR TO MODERATE, WHILE WINDS REMAIN ONSHORE.
DIURNALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
ALONG THE COAST, MOUNTAIN GAPS/PASSES, AND ALONG RIDGETOPS.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 347 AM PDT WED JUL 16 2025
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
COOLER WEATHER ON TAP THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH THE MARINE LAYER
COMPRESSING TO ABOUT 1000-1200FT AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING GETS
SLOWLY PUSHED OUT OF THE REGION. A WARMING TREND FOLLOWS FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTWEST,
WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP THE MARINE LAYER TO ABOUT 1000FT OR SO.
STRATUS WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS PROMINENT DURING THIS PERIOD, SHOULD
RETURN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING RETURNS. THIS
SHOULD A GRADUAL COOLING TREND AS WELL PUTTING TEMPERATURES CLOSER
TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM PDT WED JUL 16 2025 MARINE LAYER REMAINS AROUND
2000 FEET DEEP, ACCORDING TO THE 12Z KOAK SOUNDING AND THE FORT
ORD PROFILER. AS A RESULT, WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE
PREVAILING, BUT WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH 21Z AT MOST TAF
SITES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE HAF, WHICH KEEPS CIGS THROUGH THE THE
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING ARE STARTING TO
INCREASE, WITH SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY 21Z,
ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE GAPS AND PASSES. EXPECT WINDS TO REDUCE
LATE THIS EVENING AS MVFR/IFR CIGS MOVE INLAND ONCE AGAIN, WITH
WIDESPREAD CIGS AGAIN THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
VICINITY OF SFO...MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH 20Z,
WITH CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, REDUCING ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. MVFR
CIGS FILL AROUND THE SF BAY AND FILL OVER SFO ITSELF IN THE LATE
NIGHT. THESE CIGS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR, LINGERING INTO LATE
THURSDAY MORNING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...CIGS LOOK TO LINGER THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
AND RETURN EARLIER THAN SFO IN THE NIGHT.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF TODAY, WITH ONLY A BRIEF WINDOW OF SCT CIGS EXPECTED
BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z, AS THE MARINE LAYER QUICKLY RETURNS THIS
EVENING. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AND GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON,
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 854 AM PDT WED JUL 16 2025
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MODERATE SEAS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK, REBUILDING TO BECOME ROUGH IN THE OUTER WATERS
BY SATURDAY.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...PALMER
MARINE...PALMER
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