315
FXUS66 KMTR 162319
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
419 PM PDT WED JUL 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 245 PM PDT WED JUL 16 2025
- BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW BEFORE A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND BEGINS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
- LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH DRIER CONDITIONS BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 245 PM PDT WED JUL 16 2025
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
COOLER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH HIGHS RUNNING
ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS IS
DUE TO A DEEPER MARINE LAYER (AROUND 2000 FEET) THANKS TO PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WITH HIGHS IN THE INTERIOR EAST BAY HILLS AND FAR INTERIOR CENTRAL
COAST REACHING THE LOW 90S. COASTAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. WE CAN EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF OVERCAST
CONDITIONS AND COASTAL DRIZZLE BEFORE CONDITIONS START TO DRY OUT
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. DIURNALLY BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MOUNTAIN GAPS/PASSES, ALONG RIDGETOPS, AND WITHIN VALLEYS. PEAK
GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 25 MPH BUT IN AREAS WHERE TERRAIN
FUNNELING IS LIKELY (E.G. ALTAMONT PASS) GUSTS MAY BE LOCALLY CLOSER
TO 35 MPH.
LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WHERE DRIER, WARMER CONDITIONS PERSIST. REMEMBER, ONE
LESS SPARK, ONE LESS WILDFIRE.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 245 PM PDT WED JUL 16 2025
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
THE OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A WARMING TREND TO BEGIN
ACROSS THE INTERIOR FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PUSHES
NORTHWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BY TWO TO FOUR DEGREES ON FRIDAY
WITH ADDITIONAL WARMING EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING
US BACK TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW
90S. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH FAR
INTERIOR EAST BAY AND CENTRAL COAST REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOT BUILD IN MORE
FIRMLY OVER CALIFORNIA UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN WE SEE TEMPERATURES PEAK.
TEMPERATURES ARE SET TO COOL BACK DOWN INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REDEVELOPS AND
PUSHES THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE BACK OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN DIURNALLY BREEZY ALONG THE COAST, MOUNTAIN
GAPS/PASSES, AND ALONG RIDGETOPS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH.
LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FT. CONDITIONS WILL DRY FURTHER ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WITH DAYTIME HUMIDITY MINIMUMS DROPPING TO AROUND 15% TO
25% ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR CENTRAL COAST AND EAST BAY HILLS
STARTING SATURDAY. REMEMBER: ONE LESS SPARK, ONE LESS WILDFIRE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 419 PM PDT WED JUL 16 2025
PATCHY COASTAL MVFR-IFR STRATUS EXTENDS ACROSS THE BAY AREA AND
CENTRAL COAST, WITH SIGNIFICANT INLAND INTRUSIONS NORTH OF THE
GOLDEN GATE AND THE MONTEREY BAY REGION. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, WHEN THEY WILL DIMINISH AS
STRATUS BUILDS INLAND. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR STRATUS IMPACTS AT
THE INLAND TERMINALS (PARTICULARLY LVK) THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. STRATUS WILL RETREAT TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW RESUMING IN THE
AFTERNOON.
VICINITY OF SFO... VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
BREEZY AND POSSIBLY GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS. MVFR-IFR STRATUS
WILL MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL THIS EVENING WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING. THE STRATUS WILL DISSIPATE THURSDAY MORNING WITH A BREEZY
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW RESUMING IN THE AFTERNOON.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS... MVFR-IFR STRATUS CONTINUES ACROSS THE
TERMINALS, COURTESY OF A GOOD ONSHORE FLOW, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE FOR
ANY FURTHER SCATTERING AT THE TERMINALS BEFORE THE EVENING. STRATUS
SHOULD PERSIST OVERNIGHT BEFORE CLEARING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING,
POTENTIALLY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR MRY. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, WITH THE WINDS TURNING LIGHT
OVERNIGHT BEFORE RESUMING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM PDT WED JUL 16 2025
ALTHOUGH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, GUSTY
WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SAN PABLO AND SUISUN BAYS AS WELL
AS THE WEST DELTA THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS. THESE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING, BEFORE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. MODERATE SEAS WILL ALSO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK, REBUILDING TO BECOME ROUGH
IN THE OUTER WATERS BY SATURDAY.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR SF BAY N OF
BAY BRIDGE.
SHORT TERM...KENNEDY
LONG TERM....KENNEDY
AVIATION...DIALH
MARINE...DIALH
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