584
FXUS66 KMTR 170455
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
955 PM PDT WED JUL 16 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 245 PM PDT WED JUL 16 2025
- BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW BEFORE A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND BEGINS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
- LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH DRIER CONDITIONS BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 954 PM PDT WED JUL 16 2025
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS STREAMING INTO THE SONOMA COUNTY
VALLEYS, THE EAST BAY, AND THE MONTEREY BAY REGION. NO CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
DIALH
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 245 PM PDT WED JUL 16 2025
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
COOLER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH HIGHS RUNNING
ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS IS
DUE TO A DEEPER MARINE LAYER (AROUND 2000 FEET) THANKS TO PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WITH HIGHS IN THE INTERIOR EAST BAY HILLS AND FAR INTERIOR CENTRAL
COAST REACHING THE LOW 90S. COASTAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. WE CAN EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF OVERCAST
CONDITIONS AND COASTAL DRIZZLE BEFORE CONDITIONS START TO DRY OUT
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. DIURNALLY BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MOUNTAIN GAPS/PASSES, ALONG RIDGETOPS, AND WITHIN VALLEYS. PEAK
GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 25 MPH BUT IN AREAS WHERE TERRAIN
FUNNELING IS LIKELY (E.G. ALTAMONT PASS) GUSTS MAY BE LOCALLY CLOSER
TO 35 MPH.
LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WHERE DRIER, WARMER CONDITIONS PERSIST. REMEMBER, ONE
LESS SPARK, ONE LESS WILDFIRE.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 245 PM PDT WED JUL 16 2025
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
THE OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A WARMING TREND TO BEGIN
ACROSS THE INTERIOR FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PUSHES
NORTHWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BY TWO TO FOUR DEGREES ON FRIDAY
WITH ADDITIONAL WARMING EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING
US BACK TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW
90S. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH FAR
INTERIOR EAST BAY AND CENTRAL COAST REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOT BUILD IN MORE
FIRMLY OVER CALIFORNIA UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN WE SEE TEMPERATURES PEAK.
TEMPERATURES ARE SET TO COOL BACK DOWN INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REDEVELOPS AND
PUSHES THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE BACK OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN DIURNALLY BREEZY ALONG THE COAST, MOUNTAIN
GAPS/PASSES, AND ALONG RIDGETOPS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH.
LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FT. CONDITIONS WILL DRY FURTHER ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WITH DAYTIME HUMIDITY MINIMUMS DROPPING TO AROUND 15% TO
25% ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR CENTRAL COAST AND EAST BAY HILLS
STARTING SATURDAY. REMEMBER: ONE LESS SPARK, ONE LESS WILDFIRE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 954 PM PDT WED JUL 16 2025
MVFR-IFR STRATUS EXTENDS FROM THE COAST INTO THE SONOMA COUNTY
VALLEYS, THE EAST BAY, AND THE MONTEREY BAY REGION. ONSHORE WINDS
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
FOR STRATUS IMPACTS AT THE INLAND TERMINALS (PARTICULARLY LVK)
THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. STRATUS WILL RETREAT TO THE
IMMEDIATE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW
RESUMING IN THE AFTERNOON.
VICINITY OF SFO... THE TERMINAL CURRENTLY SITS RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF
AN MVFR-IFR STRATUS BANK, WITH STRATUS IMPACTS CONTINUING THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THE STRATUS WILL DISSIPATE THURSDAY MORNING WITH A BREEZY
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW RESUMING IN THE AFTERNOON. STRATUS RETURNS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE
ON TIMING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS... MVFR-IFR STRATUS PERSISTS OVERNIGHT BEFORE
CLEARING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, POTENTIALLY INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR MRY. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEFORE BREEZY
ONSHORE FLOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A LATE AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT
OF STRATUS OVER MRY.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 954 PM PDT WED JUL 16 2025
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. GUSTY WINDS, POTENTIALLY
HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT, DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGH THE GOLDEN GATE AND INTO THE DELTA. MODERATE SEAS ALSO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK, REBUILDING TO
BECOME ROUGH IN THE OUTER WATERS BY SATURDAY.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KENNEDY
LONG TERM....KENNEDY
AVIATION...DIALH
MARINE...DIALH
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