344
FXUS66 KMTR 182112
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
212 PM PDT FRI JUL 18 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 209 PM PDT FRI JUL 18 2025
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN MONDAY.
- LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
- WINDS STRENGTHEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG THE COAST, THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, AND MOUNTAIN GAPS/PASSES.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 209 PM PDT FRI JUL 18 2025
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
WHILE THE MORNING WAS OVERCAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, STRATUS
HAS NOW DISSIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO COMPRESS THE MARINE LAYER TO AROUND 1500
FEET TONIGHT. THIS IS STILL A FAIRLY DEEP MARINE LAYER SO WE CAN
EXPECT STRATUS TO RETURN ACROSS MUCH OF THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL
COAST BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. STRATUS WILL
CLEAR BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH CLEARING
OCCURRING FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTLINE. FURTHER COMPRESSION OF THE
MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL COAST WITH THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH
DROPPING TO AROUND 1200 FEET.
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS A SLIGHT
WARMING TREND CONTINUES. FOR THE BAY AREA, TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ALONG THE BAY SHORELINE WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S FARTHER INLAND. COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN
COMPARATIVELY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ON
SATURDAY. THE INTERIOR CENTRAL COAST HOWEVER WILL BE QUITE A BIT
WARMER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. PORTIONS OF
FAR SOUTHERN MONTEREY COUNTY IN THE VICINITY OF FORT HUNTER LIGGETT,
BRADLEY, AND PARKFIELD HAVE 40% CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES REACHING THE
100 DEGREE MARK. TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN INTO THE 50S OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE SALINAS VALLEY AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THIS RESULTS IN MINOR HEATRISK ACROSS THE BAY AREA AND
CENTRAL COAST WITH ONLY A FEW PIXELS OF MODERATE HEATRISK IN THE LOS
PADRES NATIONAL FOREST.
LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE IN PARTICULAR FOR THE
INTERIOR CENTRAL COAST AND EAST BAY HILLS. FOR THE INTERIOR CENTRAL
COAST, DAYTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FURTHER DRY SATURDAY AND
POOR DAYTIME HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 13 TO 25 PERCENT EXPECTED.
FORTUNATELY, WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND ONSHORE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, WHERE THE DRIEST CONDITIONS ARE, WHICH WILL HELP MITIGATE
CONCERNS A LITTLE. THE SALINAS VALLEY, COMPARATIVELY, WILL CONTINUE
TO EXPERIENCE BREEZY AFTERNOON/EVENING WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30
TO 35 MPH. CONDITIONS ARE NOT QUITE AS DRY IN THE SALINAS VALLEY BUT
OCCASIONAL MODERATE GUSTS (UP TO 25 MPH) MAY PUSH INTO THE FAR
SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY (VICINITY OF BRADLEY) WHERE CONDITIONS ARE
DRIER. FOR THE EAST BAY HILLS, WE CAN EXPECT DRY DAYTIME CONDITIONS
(HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 25 TO 30%) AND BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS TO
AROUND 35 MPH ACROSS MOUNTAIN GAPS/PASSES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 209 PM PDT FRI JUL 18 2025
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
WEATHER WISE, SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT OF SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH A FEW
HOT SPOTS IN THE EAST BAY REACHING THE LOW 90S. HIGHS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR CENTRAL COAST WILL START COOL, IF EVER SO SLIGHTLY, WITH
HIGHS PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S COMPARED TO UPPER 90S TO LOW
100S ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED
OVER MUCH OF CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY, IT DOES START TO BREAK DOWN
LATE IN THE DAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO
CALIFORNIA. AS THIS TROUGH APPROACHES, IT WILL INCREASE ONSHORE
FLOW AND ALLOW GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE
COAST AND ACROSS MOUNTAIN GAPS/PASSES THROUGHOUT THE INTERIOR.
GUSTY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTH
BAY, SAN PABLO AND SUISUN BAYS, ALONG THE DELTA, AND ACROSS THE
EAST BAY HILLS (EMPHASIZING MOUNTAIN GAPS/PASSES). GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND 30 MPH ACROSS THE NORTH BAY BUT WILL PEAK
CLOSER TO 35-40 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DELTA AND EAST BAY
HILLS (ALTAMONT PASS).
HOPEFULLY YOU AREN'T TIRED OF NO SKY JULY AND COMPARATIVELY MILD
TEMPERATURES AS THE ARRIVAL OF THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO KICK OFF A
COOLING TREND AND BRING A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL DROP BACK
INTO THE 70S TO LOW 80S AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS TROUGHING CONTINUES. THE EXCEPTION WILL AGAIN BE THE
INTERIOR CENTRAL COAST WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. ALL IN ALL, THE CPC INDICATES BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE JULY WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF AUGUST.
IN TERMS OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, LOCALIZED CONCERNS WILL STILL
EXIST ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS BUT THE RETURN OF UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING WILL HELP TO MITIGATE MORE WIDESPREAD CONCERNS. INCREASED
ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MODEST IMPROVEMENTS IN DAYTIME HUMIDITY
VALUES STARTING MONDAY. THIS IS MOST NOTICEABLE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR CENTRAL COAST WHERE DAYTIME MINIMUM VALUES WILL IMPROVE
FROM AROUND 13 TO 20% OVER THE WEEKEND TO 20 TO 30% BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM PDT FRI JUL 18 2025
MVFR CURRENTLY OVER THE BAY AREA TERMINALS AND AREAS JUST INLAND WAY
FROM THE COAST. HOWEVER, IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS COASTAL
SITES THIS MORNING AND VERY WELL MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
INLAND TAF SITES SUCH AS LVK AND SJC HAVE CLEARED OUT AND THE REST
OF THE INLAND TERMINALS LOOK TO CLEAR OUT BY LATE MORNING. LOOK FOR
ONSHORE WINDS TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE EASING AFTER SUNSET
THIS EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO
MUCH OF THE REGION AGAIN THIS EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHEN
WE HAVE LOW PROBABILITY OF SEEING CEILINGS LOWER TO LIFR, GREATEST
POTENTIAL OVER THE NORTH BAY AND MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS.
VICINITY OF SFO...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO SCATTER OUT
AND/OR CLEAR BY 18Z-19Z WITH ONSHORE WINDS INCREASING THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO RETURN LATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOW CONFIDENCE FOR IFR CEILINGS AS WE HEAD INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS TO DIMINISH A BIT LATER
TOMORROW BETWEEN 19Z-20Z AS THE MARINE LAYER IS FORECAST TO COMPRESS
SLIGHTLY. ONCE LOW CLOUDS CLEAR, LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE
WINDS ONCE AGAIN.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...IFR/MVFR CEILINGS CURRENTLY AT THE TAF
SITES BUT CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR SOON AT SNS. MRY LOOKS TO SEE MVFR
CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT 21Z, YET MAY LINGER THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF
THE DAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR IFR/MVFR CEILINGS TO MAKE AN EARLY
RETURN THIS EVENING WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF LIFR CONDITIONS HEADING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM PDT FRI JUL 18 2025
LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST OR NORTHWEST BREEZES CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH WINDS
EASING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK. GUSTY WINDS, POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS
TO SMALL CRAFT, DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THE
GOLDEN GATE, INTO THE DELTA, AND THE FAVORED COASTAL JETS OFF OF
PIGEON POINT AND THE BIG SUR COASTLINE. MODERATE SEAS PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR SF BAY N OF BAY
BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SATURDAY TO 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
SF BAY N OF BAY BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PT PINOS TO PT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...KENNEDY
LONG TERM....KENNEDY
AVIATION...RGASS
MARINE...RGASS
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