656
FXUS66 KMTR 091753
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1053 AM PDT SAT AUG 9 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 339 AM PDT SAT AUG 9 2025
- MODERATE HEATRISK CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH,
EAST, AND SOUTH BAY COUNTIES AND INTERIOR MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO
COUNTIES.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS PERSIST GIVEN THE WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS, WITH BREEZY WINDS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- PATTERN CHANGE TUESDAY, WITH COOLER WEATHER AND COASTAL DRIZZLE
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 911 AM PDT SAT AUG 9 2025
DID AN EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO INCREASE FOG COVERAGE ALONG THE
COAST AND LOCALLY INLAND THROUGH HOLLISTER AND S SANTA CLARA
VALLEY. ALSO, INCLUDED A MENTION OF DENSE FOG AS SEVERAL AUTOMATED
SENSORS REPORT VSBY LESS THAN 1 MILES. SINCE THE EARLY MORNING
UPDATE CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY IMPROVING AROUND THE REGION AS THE
MARINE LAYER/FOG BANK THIN AND CLEAR BACK TO THE COAST. WHILE
CLEARING WILL CONTINUE THE CLOUD LAYER WILL NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR
AT THE COAST. EXPECT LINGERING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. THE LINGER
CLOUDS WILL ALSO HELP TO REINFORCE THE LARGE TEMP SPREAD TODAY
FROM THE COAST TO INTERIOR LOCATIONS. SPEAKING OF TEMPERATURES -
INTERIOR HEAT STILL REMAINS THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT TODAY. SEE
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
NO OTHER UPDATES NEEDED.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 339 AM PDT SAT AUG 9 2025
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST, WITH THE MARINE LAYER LOOKING MORE
EXPANSIVE THIS MORNING. HOW SO, YOU MIGHT ASK? WELL, THE STRATUS HAS
SLINKED ITS WAY UP THE COAST AND HAS BEGUN TO INFILTRATE THE A
FEW VALLEYS. THE FORT ORD PROFILER SHOWS THE MARINE LAYER AROUND
1000- 1200FT WITH STRATUS BLANKETING THE SALINAS VALLEY. EXPECT
THE STRATUS TO BLOSSOM A BIT MORE TONIGHT FOR SOME INTERIOR
LOCATIONS, THOUGH IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS IT MIXES OUT THIS
MORNING. ANOTHER WARM AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WILL BE ON TAP FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION. MODERATE HEATRISK CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH,
EAST, AND SOUTH BAY COUNTIES AND INTERIOR MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO
COUNTIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS WILL BE IN THE 90S TO
NEAR 100, WHILE AREAS IN MINOR HEATRISK HAVE TEMPERATURES SPAN
FROM THE 60S TO THE 80S. THOSE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER
TO COAST AND WHERE THE MARINE LAYER AND PERHAPS LINGERING STRATUS
HOLDS.
AS WE CONTINUE TO HAVE THIS STRETCH OF WARMER WEATHER, CONTINUE
PRACTICING HEAT SAFETY. SOME OF YOU MAY BE EXPERTS BY NOW AFTER
READING THESE DISCUSSIONS, BUT IF YOU'RE NEW HERE, DON'T WORRY, WE
GOT YOU! YOU CAN BEAT THE HEAT BY: WEARING SUNSCREEN, TAKING BREAKS,
STAYING HYDRATED, REDUCING YOUR TIME OUTDOORS, WEARING LIGHTER OR
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 339 AM PDT SAT AUG 9 2025
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
UPPER LEVEL HIGH HOLDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS MEANS, WE'LL CONTINUE TO SEE THE FORECAST ON REPEAT. PATCHES OF
MODERATE HEATRISK IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST, SOUTH, AND
NORTH BAY WHILE MINOR HEATRISK IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH MONDAY.
ADDITIONALLY WE'LL CONTINUE TO SEE THE MARINE LAYER AND ASSOCIATED
STRATUS FORM EACH NIGHT, WITH ANY INLAND PENETRATION ERODING
QUICKLY AND LEADING TO WARMER WEATHER.
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE ON TUESDAY, WHICH IS WHEN WE'LL START
TO SEE A REPRIEVE IN TEMPERATURES THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE. WE'LL LIKELY SEE A DEEPER MARINE LAYER
AND MORE COASTAL DRIZZLE AND FOG MIDWEEK TOO.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1053 AM PDT SAT AUG 9 2025
COASTAL STRATUS AND FOG /IFR-LIFR/ CONTINUE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINE OTHERWISE IT'S VFR. HREF SHOWS COASTAL STRATUS AND FOG
/IFR-LIFR/ RETURN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS MAINLY ONSHORE
5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR TODAY, STRATUS /IFR/ RETURNS 04Z THIS
EVENING TO 18Z SUNDAY. VFR LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND BECOMING NORTHWEST TO WEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH POSSIBLY A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...STRATUS AND FOG /IFR-LIFR/ CONTINUE ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE OTHERWISE IT'S VFR. STRATUS AND FOG /IFR-LIFR/
RETURN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS MAINLY ONSHORE 5 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 911 AM PDT SAT AUG 9 2025
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GENTLE
TO MODERATE BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG GUSTS THROUGH THE DELTA DUE
TO THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. SEAS WILL ABATE TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD
MODERATE SEAS EXPECTED BY MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 550 AM PDT SAT AUG 9 2025
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY GIVEN INTERIOR HEAT, LOW
HUMIDITY, AND DAILY AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS. ERC VALUES LOOK TO RISE
SOME AND THERE IS A RISK FOR FINER FUELS (GRASS OR VEG) FIRES TO
SPREAD QUICKLY IF IGNITED.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR SF BAY N
OF BAY BRIDGE.
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...CANEPA
MARINE...CANEPA
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