196  
FXUS66 KMTR 111034  
AFDMTR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA  
334 AM PDT MON AUG 11 2025  
   
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
UPDATED AT 333 AM PDT MON AUG 11 2025  
 
- MODERATE HEATRISK CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH,  
EAST, AND SOUTH BAY COUNTIES AND INTERIOR MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO  
COUNTIES.  
 
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY GIVEN THE WARM  
AND DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON AND EVENING  
WINDS.  
 
- PATTERN CHANGE TUESDAY, WITH COOLER WEATHER AND COASTAL DRIZZLE  
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
ISSUED AT 333 AM PDT MON AUG 11 2025  
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
 
THE FORT ORD PROFILER THIS MORNING SHOWS THE MARINE LAYER AROUND  
1400FT THIS MORNING, WITH THE SPREAD OF THE STRATUS LOOKING TO MATCH  
A MARINE LAYER DEPTH OF 1500FT. STRATUS SHOULD TAKE A TOUCH LONGER  
TO ERODE THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE CLOSER TO THE COAST.  
OVERALL, ANOTHER SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS WITH  
HIGH TEMPERATURES PEAKING 90S, PERHAPS CLOSER TO THE UPPER 90S TO  
NEAR 105 FOR INTERIOR CONTRA COSTA, SAN BENITIO, AND MONTEREY  
COUNTIES. STRATUS RETURNS TONIGHT AND WILL SEEP INTO THE VALLEYS  
ONCE AGAIN.  

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
ISSUED AT 333 AM PDT MON AUG 11 2025  
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)  
 
THE PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS ON TUESDAY, THOUGH BE IT, PERHAPS A BIT  
MORE MINIMALLY THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH  
APPROACHES THE PACNW WHICH WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN THE UPPER LEVEL  
RIDGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY,  
WITH THE GRADUAL DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE  
WEEK. THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH, KICKS IN ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL  
PAVE THE WAY FOR UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR CLOUDY, DRIZZLY, AND FOGGY OVERNIGHTS  
AND SUNNY SKIES FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS BY THE AFTERNOON.  
 
AN INTERESTING NOTE IN THE FORECAST IS THAT A FEW DETERMINISTIC  
MODELS ARE TRYING TO SHOW MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO  
BEING PULLED OVER OUR COAST. CAPE SEEMS TO STRUGGLE TO MANIFEST  
GIVEN THE TROUGHING, BUT MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE INTERESTING AROUND  
7.5-8C/KM. FOR NOW CURRENT THINKING IS PERHAPS WE SEE SOME CUMULUS  
CLOUDS OR PERHAPS SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT  
LOOKS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 955 PM PDT SUN AUG 10 2025  
 
VFR CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH BAY TERMINALS BUT HIRES GUIDANCE  
SUGGESTS THAT IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL BUILD IN AROUND MIDNIGHT OR  
A LITTLE LATER. LOW STRATUS HAS BEGUN SHIFTING INLAND FROM THE  
COAST LINE WITH ROBUST ONSHORE FLOW AND 1300FT MARINE LAYER.  
 
VICINITY OF SFO...LOW STRATUS HAS BEGUN TO FILL IN OVER THE INNER  
BAY AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY BUILD OVER KSFO AFTER MIDNIGHT AND  
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING MONDAY. EXPECT KOAK TO REMAIN  
MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UNTIL LATE MONDAY MORNING.  
HIRES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING  
LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND PERSISTING THROUGH MID-MORNING  
MONDAY.  
 
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR SFO.  
 
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...STEADY WEST/NORTHWEST ONSHORE FLOW  
CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND OVER KSNS A LITTLE BEFORE KMRY EACH  
EVENING AND SHOULD DO SO AGAIN EARLY MONDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE  
EXPECT IFR TO PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AND  
CONTINUE INTO LATE MONDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY EARLY AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 333 AM PDT MON AUG 11 2025  
 
MODERATE SEAS WILL BUILD TO BECOME ROUGH FOR INNER WATERS AND  
OUTER WATERS THURSDAY. NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES WILL BE GENTLE TO  
MODERATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON SEA  
BREEZES BRINGING LOCALIZED STRONG GUSTS THROUGH THE DELTA AND  
ALONG POINT SUR. NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES INCREASE THURSDAY TO  
BECOME FRESH TO STRONG, POSING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL  
CRAFT.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 906 AM PDT SUN AUG 10 2025  
 
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH  
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY AND BREEZY AND  
GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BOTH LEADING TO  
CURING FUELS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPIDLY SPREADING FIRES SHOULD  
ONE START. POOR OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES IN THE HIGHER  
TERRAIN WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE FIRE WEATHER THREATS. AS AN UPPER  
LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN, THE GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS WILL LINGER,  
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. HOWEVER,  
THE COOLING TEMPERATURES AND DEEPENING MARINE LAYER WILL HELP TO  
MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER THREATS, AND BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK A  
TROUGH SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS  
THE REGION.  
 
DIALH  
 

 
   
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CA...NONE.  
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS  
EVENING FOR SF BAY N OF BAY BRIDGE.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT  
TUESDAY FOR PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...KR  
LONG TERM....KR  
AVIATION...JM  
MARINE...SARMENT  
 
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO  
 
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