912  
FXUS66 KMTR 111101  
AFDMTR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA  
401 AM PDT MON AUG 11 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
UPDATED AT 333 AM PDT MON AUG 11 2025  
 
- MODERATE HEATRISK CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH,  
EAST, AND SOUTH BAY COUNTIES AND INTERIOR MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO  
COUNTIES.  
 
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY GIVEN THE WARM  
AND DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON AND EVENING  
WINDS.  
 
- PATTERN CHANGE TUESDAY, WITH COOLER WEATHER AND COASTAL DRIZZLE  
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM  
 
ISSUED AT 333 AM PDT MON AUG 11 2025  
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
 
THE FORT ORD PROFILER THIS MORNING SHOWS THE MARINE LAYER AROUND  
1400FT THIS MORNING, WITH THE SPREAD OF THE STRATUS LOOKING TO MATCH  
A MARINE LAYER DEPTH OF 1500FT. STRATUS SHOULD TAKE A TOUCH LONGER  
TO ERODE THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE CLOSER TO THE COAST.  
OVERALL, ANOTHER SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS WITH  
HIGH TEMPERATURES PEAKING 90S, PERHAPS CLOSER TO THE UPPER 90S TO  
NEAR 105 FOR INTERIOR CONTRA COSTA, SAN BENITIO, AND MONTEREY  
COUNTIES. STRATUS RETURNS TONIGHT AND WILL SEEP INTO THE VALLEYS  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
ISSUED AT 333 AM PDT MON AUG 11 2025  
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)  
 
THE PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS ON TUESDAY, THOUGH BE IT, PERHAPS A BIT  
MORE MINIMALLY THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH  
APPROACHES THE PACNW WHICH WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN THE UPPER LEVEL  
RIDGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY,  
WITH THE GRADUAL DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE  
WEEK. THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH, KICKS IN ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL  
PAVE THE WAY FOR UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR CLOUDY, DRIZZLY, AND FOGGY OVERNIGHTS  
AND SUNNY SKIES FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS BY THE AFTERNOON.  
 
AN INTERESTING NOTE IN THE FORECAST IS THAT A FEW DETERMINISTIC  
MODELS ARE TRYING TO SHOW MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO  
BEING PULLED OVER OUR COAST. CAPE SEEMS TO STRUGGLE TO MANIFEST  
GIVEN THE TROUGHING, BUT MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE INTERESTING AROUND  
7.5-8C/KM. FOR NOW CURRENT THINKING IS PERHAPS WE SEE SOME CUMULUS  
CLOUDS OR PERHAPS SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT  
LOOKS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 358 AM PDT MON AUG 11 2025  
 
CURRENTLY A MIXED BAG OF IFR-VFR AT THE TERMINALS WITH A MARINE  
LAYER OF ABOUT 1,600 FEET. HIGH (80%) CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD VFR  
THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW STRATUS STICKING CLOSE TO THE COAST. LITTLE  
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL YIELD SIMILAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT  
AS WHAT IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY.  
 
VICINITY OF SFO...CURRENTLY IFR WITH WESTERLY FLOW. HIGH (90%)  
CONFIDENCE IN VFR BY THE AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE (60%) CONFIDENCE ON  
AN IFR CEILING RETURNING TO THE TERMINAL TONIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS  
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  
 
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.  
 
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...CURRENTLY IFR WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT  
BOTH TERMINALS. HIGH (80%) CONFIDENCE ON BRIEF VFR BEING ACHIEVED  
WITH MODERATE (50-60%) CONFIDENCE ON IFR CEILINGS RETURNING TO  
BOTH TERMINALS TONIGHT.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 333 AM PDT MON AUG 11 2025  
 
MODERATE SEAS WILL BUILD TO BECOME ROUGH FOR INNER WATERS AND  
OUTER WATERS THURSDAY. NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES WILL BE GENTLE TO  
MODERATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON SEA  
BREEZES BRINGING LOCALIZED STRONG GUSTS THROUGH THE DELTA AND  
ALONG POINT SUR. NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES INCREASE THURSDAY TO  
BECOME FRESH TO STRONG, POSING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL  
CRAFT.  
 
 
   
FIRE WEATHER  
 
ISSUED AT 906 AM PDT SUN AUG 10 2025  
 
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH  
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY AND BREEZY AND  
GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BOTH LEADING TO  
CURING FUELS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPIDLY SPREADING FIRES SHOULD  
ONE START. POOR OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES IN THE HIGHER  
TERRAIN WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE FIRE WEATHER THREATS. AS AN UPPER  
LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN, THE GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS WILL LINGER,  
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. HOWEVER,  
THE COOLING TEMPERATURES AND DEEPENING MARINE LAYER WILL HELP TO  
MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER THREATS, AND BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK A  
TROUGH SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS  
THE REGION.  
 
DIALH  
 
 
   
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
CA...NONE.  
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS  
EVENING FOR SF BAY N OF BAY BRIDGE.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT  
TUESDAY FOR PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.  
 
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...KR  
LONG TERM....KR  
AVIATION...SARMENT  
MARINE...SARMENT  
 
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO  
 
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