589
FXUS66 KMTR 112130
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
230 PM PDT MON AUG 11 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 333 AM PDT MON AUG 11 2025
- MODERATE HEATRISK CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH,
EAST, AND SOUTH BAY COUNTIES AND INTERIOR MONTEREY AND SAN
BENITO COUNTIES.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY GIVEN THE WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WINDS.
- PATTERN CHANGE TUESDAY, WITH COOLER WEATHER AND COASTAL DRIZZLE
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 152 PM PDT MON AUG 11 2025
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
WELCOME TO THE LAND OF MICRO-CLIMATES. WE'VE BEEN LOCKED IN THIS
PATTERN FOR A FEW DAYS NOW, BUT IT IS STILL IMPRESSIVE
NONETHELESS. COASTAL STRATUS/NATURAL AC IS KEEPING THE COAST
COOL, BUT GO INLAND AND TEMPS SKY ROCKET. 100-105 BEING REPORTED
OVER SOUTHERN MONTEREY THIS AFTERNOON. THE TEMP SPREAD IS ALSO IN
THE VERTICAL WITH COASTAL SITES SHOWING TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S,
BUT JUST A 1K FEET UP THE MOUNTAINSIDE TEMPS ARE IN THE 80S.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY: THE RIDGE THAT BROUGHT INTERIOR HEAT IS
FINALLY EASING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. AN UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL BEGIN
TO NOSE ITS WAY INTO CA. AS MENTIONED, BEFORE TUESDAY WILL BE MORE
OF A TRANSITION DAY WITH SENSIBLE WEATHER AS TEMPS BEGIN TO EASE.
NIGHT/MORNING CLOUDS WITH COASTAL FOG/DRIZZLE PERSIST. WHILE
TEMPS EASE GENERALLY SPEAKING, STILL EXPECTING TO SEE INTERIOR
REACH THE 90S TO JUST OVER 100.
FOR THOSE WANTING TO SEE THE METEOR SHOWER. BAD NEWS, IT LOOKS
LIKE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY WIN OUT WITH A SOLID STRATUS DECK. IF
YOU'RE IN THE HILLS YOU WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 230 PM PDT MON AUG 11 2025
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM GETS LITTLE EXCITING THANKS TO
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IVO. AS IVO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ITS MOISTURE
REMAINS. MOISTURE TRANSPORT DOES GET WRAPPED ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SW RIDGE AND ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A LOW OVER
THE EPAC, BUT DOES IT MAKE IT TO CA IN A MEANINGFUL WAY? LATEST
NWP MODELS BRING THE MOISTURE TOWARD CA, BUT IT GETS
HALTED/DEFLECTED BY THE APPROACHING UPSTREAM TROUGH. WHERE THIS
COULD BE A LITTLE PROBLEMATIC IS IF THE TROUGH IS SLOW OR FARTHER
NORTH THE MOISTURE COULD MAKE IT MORE NORTH. FOR NOW IT LOOKS TO
REMAIN OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST. WHERE THE MOISTURE DOES TRAVEL IT
WILL ENCOUNTER SOME INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE EXCEEDING 100 J/KG
AND LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 7C/KM. SOME OF THE HOTTER CAMS DO
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS OVER MONTEREY COUNTY WEDNESDAY, BUT THAT
IS PUSHING IT. IT'S A NON- EVENT FOR NOW, BUT WE'LL BE WATCHING.
OF MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE WILL BE WIDESPREAD COOLING WITH MORE
COASTAL CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE. THE COOL DOWN WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1034 AM PDT MON AUG 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE RETURNING TO INLAND TAF SITES, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF HAF WHERE IFR/MVFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE TAF
PERIOD. ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
EASING AFTER SUNSET AND MORE SO INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR AN EARLY RETURN OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH THE
BAY AREA AND MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS THIS EVENING OR BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR LIFR CONDITIONS EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AROUND MRY, HAF, AND STS. EXPECTING IFR/MVFR
(POTENTIALLY IFR CEILINGS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED SITES) TO CLEAR OUT
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING BETWEEN 16Z-19Z TUESDAY. ONSHORE WINDS
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AN INCREASE IN WESTERLY-
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE EASING
SLIGHTLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR IFR/MVFR CEILINGS
TO DEVELOP OVER THE BAY AREA TERMINALS LATE THIS EVENING AND PERSIST
THROUGH MID-MORNING ON TUESDAY. ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR. ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
FOR IFR CEILINGS TO RETURN THIS EVENING, POTENTIALLY LOWERING TO
LIFR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AT MRY.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1034 AM PDT MON AUG 11 2025
NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES WILL BE GENTLE TO MODERATE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES BRINGING
LOCALIZED STRONG GUSTS THROUGH THE DELTA AND ALONG POINT SUR.
NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES INCREASE THURSDAY TO BECOME FRESH TO STRONG,
POSING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. MODERATE SEAS WILL
BUILD TO BECOME ROUGH FOR INNER WATERS AND OUTER WATERS THURSDAY.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1034 AM PDT MON AUG 11 2025
A LONG PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL IS IMPACTING THE COAST AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASED RISK FOR SNEAKER WAVES AND RIP CURRENTS, ESPECIALLY ALONG
SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES SUCH AS STINSON, SANTA CRUZ BOARDWALK AND
TWIN LAKES. SNEAKER WAVES CAN UNEXPECTEDLY RUN SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER
UP THE BEACH THAN NORMAL, INCLUDING OVER ROCKS AND JETTIES. RIP
CURRENTS ARE TYPICALLY MORE FREQUENT AND STRONGER IN THE VICINITY OF
JETTIES, INLETS, AND PIERS. SWIMMERS SHOULD ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A
LIFEGUARD. REMEMBER, NEVER TURN YOUR BACK TO THE OCEAN!
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR CAZ505-529.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR SF BAY N
OF BAY BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR SF BAY N
OF BAY BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PT PINOS TO PT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....MM
AVIATION...RGASS
MARINE...RGASS
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