695
FXUS66 KMTR 121021
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
321 AM PDT TUE AUG 12 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 320 AM PDT TUE AUG 12 2025
- MODERATE HEATRISK TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF INTERIOR MONTEREY AND SAN
BENITO COUNTIES.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE
INTERIOR CENTRAL COAST.
- PATTERN CHANGE TODAY, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD COOLING AND COASTAL
CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE STARTING WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 320 AM PDT TUE AUG 12 2025
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
IT'S FINALLY HAPPENING! THE PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS TODAY. FIRST UP,
IT WOULDN'T BE A NIGHT SHIFT DISCUSSION THIS WEEK WITHOUT
MENTIONING IT, THE STATUS OF THE STRATUS! SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
STRATUS BLOSSOMING ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION INCLUDING
INTERIOR VALLEYS OF THE BAY AREA. THIS MATCHES THE MARINE LAYER
FOOT PRINT OF 1200-1500FT. EXPECT TO SEE THE SPREAD CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH STRATUS GRADUALLY STARTING TO MIX OUT
AFTER SUNRISE. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY, LOOK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND FOR CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND THE COAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER,
WITH INTERIOR BAY AREA COUNTIES AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY SEEING
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S TO MID 90S COMPARED TO THE MID 80S TO NEAR
105 DEGREES FOR INTERIOR MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO. CLOSER TO THE
COAST, WHERE NATURE'S AC HOLDS, HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE MID
50S TO LOW 70S.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 320 AM PDT TUE AUG 12 2025
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST. REMNANT
MOISTURE FROM FORMER (IT IS NO LONGER A NAMED STORM) POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE IVO REMAINS OF INTEREST. CURRENTLY ON SATURDAY YOU CAN
SEE THIS BEING PULLED NORTH ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS TUESDAY
MORNING. GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY LACK LUSTER THANKS TO AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWING INTO THE PACNW WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE LIFTING
MECHANISM NEEDED FOR SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD
THIS ARRIVAL BE DELAYED OR BE A BIT MORE TO OUR NORTH, THERE MAY
BE MORE ROOM FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS THERE IS SOME CAPE,
REASONABLE MOISTURE, AND DECENT LAPSE RATES. LIKE WE SAW ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON, THERE ARE A FEW CAMS THAT TRY TO GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. BUT FOR NOW, WE'RE NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. OUTSIDE OF THAT WE CAN LOOK FORWARD
TO THE COOLING TREND AND COASTAL STRATUS AND DRIZZLE LASTING INTO
THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 920 PM PDT MON AUG 11 2025
LOW STRATUS HAS BEGUN MAKING PROGRESS INLAND THIS EVENING WITH
MVFR CEILINGS IN PLACE FOR TERMINALS CLOSEST TO THE SHORELINE,
WITH THE NORTH BAY TERMINALS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW SUIT BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. MARINE LAYER AS MEASURED NEAR MONTEREY BAY HAS BEEN
STEADY AT AROUND 1500FT WITH STEADY ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTING
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
VICINITY OF SFO...MVFR CEILINGS FILLED IN SOONER THAN EXPECTED AT
KSFO WITH RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGESTING CEILINGS WILL HOLD
IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ASIDE FROM
THE EARLY ARRIVAL TIME AT KSFO, EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO BEGIN
CLEARING OUT BY MID-MORNING FOR BAY AREA TERMINALS.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. KSNS IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT BY
LATE MORNING TUESDAY, AND A CHANCE THAT KMRY HOLDS ONTO MVFR
CEILINGS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON, AND SIMILAR RETURN TIMES TUESDAY
EVENING LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM PDT TUE AUG 12 2025
A GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL PREVAIL TODAY,
INCREASING TO BECOME FRESH TO STRONG WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
STRONG GUSTS BY THURSDAY. MODERATE SEAS WILL BUILD TO BECOME
ROUGH FOR INNER WATERS AND OUTER WATERS BY THURSDAY.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 248 AM PDT TUE AUG 12 2025
A LONG PERIOD (17 SECONDS) SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASED RISK FOR SNEAKER WAVES AND RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. GREATEST RISK WILL BE ALONG SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES,
INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO STINSON BEACH, SANTA CRUZ BOARDWALK
BEACH, AND TWIN LAKES BEACH. SNEAKER WAVES CAN UNEXPECTEDLY RUN
SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER UP THE BEACH THAN NORMAL, INCLUDING OVER
ROCKS AND JETTIES. REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER TO AVOID HAZARDOUS
SWIMMING CONDITIONS AND NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN!
SARMENT
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CAZ505-529.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR SF BAY N OF BAY BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PT PINOS TO PT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...SARMENT
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