060  
FXUS66 KMTR 132110  
AFDMTR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA  
210 PM PDT WED AUG 13 2025  
   
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
UPDATED AT 1200 AM PDT WED AUG 13 2025  
 
- A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BRING A MORE ROBUST MARINE LAYER, COOLER  
TEMPERATURES, AND SOME MORNING DRIZZLE TODAY.  
 
- STRONG NW WINDS WILL ARRIVE TO THE COAST THURSDAY AND SPREAD  
INLAND FRIDAY.  
 
- TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB SLIGHTLY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE COOLING  
AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
ISSUED AT 200 PM PDT WED AUG 13 2025  
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)  
 
DECENT 24 HOUR TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON WEATHER WISE ACROSS THE  
FORECAST AREA. WE'VE BEEN DISCUSSING THE PATTERN CHANGE FOR A FEW  
DAYS NOW AND THIS IS IT. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL ACROSS THE  
REGION. SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS ARE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN  
TUESDAY. ALL THAT BEING SAID, FAR INTERIOR E BAY AND FAR INTERIOR  
CENTRAL COAST TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER, BUT STILL IN THE 90S WITH  
A 10-20% CHC AT BREAKING 100 DEGREES. ON THE FLIP SIDE, GOING TO  
THE COAST? BRING A JACKET. CLOUDS LINGER AND TEMPS ARE STUCK IN  
THE UPPER 50S TO 60S.  
 
NO MAJOR CHANGES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. ADDITIONAL COOLING WITH  
PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
ISSUED AT 203 PM PDT WED AUG 13 2025  
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME ANCHORED OVER THE WEST THROUGH  
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BASICALLY, A RINSE AND  
REPEAT FORECAST AND PATTERN WE'VE SEE A LOT OF THIS SUMMER.  
NIGHT/MORNING CLOUDS CLEARING TO THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON. COOLER  
COAST AND SEASONABLY COOL INLAND, EVEN WITH SUNSHINE. ONLY WEATHER  
IMPACT OF NOTE WILL BE INCREASING WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT AND  
FRIDAY. WHILE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DOMINATES, WEAK SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE CA/OR. AS SUCH, THE N-S GRADIENT RAMPS UP  
ALONG NORCAL. IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASE PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS  
INCREASE. NOT STRONG ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY, BUT STILL WINDY  
ALONG THE COAST, ORIENTED N-S VALLEYS, AND INLAND GAPS/PASSES.  
GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS FINALLY EASE BY SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1040 AM PDT WED AUG 13 2025  
 
A MIX BAG OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS THE MARINE  
LAYER HAS DEEPENED TO AROUND 2000 FEET. EXPECTING INLAND TERMINALS  
TO RETURN TO VFR WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, HOWEVER THERE IS  
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT MUCH  
OF THE DAY NEAR THE COAST. ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS  
AFTERNOON, SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY. HOWEVER, WINDS ARE  
FORECAST TO EASE ACROSS THE MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS AFTER SUNSET  
AND THE BAY AREA TERMINALS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS HIGH  
CONFIDENCE FOR IFR/MVFR CEILINGS TO MAKE AN EARLY RETURN THIS  
EVENING AND LOWER INTO THURSDAY MORNING AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY  
TERMINALS.  
 
VICINITY OF SFO...MVFR. LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO SCATTER OUT  
AND/OR CLEAR BY 19Z-21Z AND RETURN TO VFR. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE  
SLIGHTLY STRONGER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW  
PRESSURE IMPACTS THE REGION. AS SUCH, EXPECTING A SIMILAR RETURN  
OF MVFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING THAT WILL LOWER TO IFR THROUGH MID-  
MORNING ON THURSDAY. ONCE LOW CLOUDS CLEAR, ONSHORE WINDS ARE  
FORECAST TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.  
 
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...IFR/MVFR. LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO  
SCATTER OUT AT SNS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. MEANWHILE, IFR CONDITIONS  
PERSIST AT MRY AND SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY AROUND 21Z. HOWEVER,  
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AN EARLY RETURN OF IFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING  
BEFORE LOWERING TO LIFR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 858 AM PDT WED AUG 13 2025  
 
MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES TODAY WILL INCREASE TO BECOME FRESH  
TO STRONG ON THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL BE  
PRESENT THURSDAY WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS  
AND ALONG THE COASTAL JET REGION OF POINT REYES AND NEAR-GALE  
FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE REST OF THE INNER WATERS. MODERATE SEAS  
WILL INCREASE TO BECOME ROUGH FOR THE INNER WATERS AND OUTER  
WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CA...NONE.  
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR SF BAY N OF BAY  
BRIDGE.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR MRY BAY.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PT ARENA  
TO PT REYES 0-10 NM.  
 
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PT ARENA  
TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR  
PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PIGEON PT  
TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PIGEON  
PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PT PINOS TO PT  
PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM PDT THURSDAY  
FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PIGEON  
PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM.  
 
GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM THURSDAY TO 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PIGEON PT  
TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...MM  
LONG TERM....MM  
AVIATION...RGASS  
MARINE...RGASS  
 
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO  
 
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, X, AND YOUTUBE AT:  
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA  
X.COM/NWSBAYAREA  
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab CA Page Main Text Page