002
FXUS66 KMTR 142155
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
255 PM PDT THU AUG 14 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 222 PM PDT THU AUG 14 2025
- A MARINE LAYER WILL BRING COASTAL DRIZZLE THE NEXT FEW
MORNINGS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE RETURNING
BACK BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.
- STRONG NW WINDS WILL ARRIVE TO THE COAST TODAY AND SPREAD
INLAND FRIDAY - SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 217 PM PDT THU AUG 14 2025
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ANOTHER DAY OF LARGE TEMPERATURE SPREADS ACROSS THE BAY AREA AND
CENTRAL COAST FROM THE COASTLINE TO FAR INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
RATHER COMMON THIS TIME OF YEAR ACTUALLY. UPPER 50S/60S COAST TO
90S INLAND. WHILE WE'VE BEEN HYPING THE COOLDOWN IT'S STILL HOT
INLAND. IN FACT, A FEW INTERIOR LOCATIONS HAVEN'T DROPPED BELOW 90
DEGREES FOR DAYTIME HIGHS SINCE THE LAST WEEK OF JULY.
THE LOW CLOUDS LURKING ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
INLAND AGAIN TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THE EVOLUTION OF THE MARINE LAYER
TONIGHT WILL BE DIFFERENT THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. WHILE THE
MARINE LAYER BEGINS TO MARCH INLAND IT WILL BE SLOWED/HAMPERED BY
SOME WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AND ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR. WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG THE OR/CA BORDER
RAMPING UP THE N-S GRADIENT TONIGHT. LARGER SCALE OFFSHORE
GRADIENT ALSO BEGINS TO RAMP UP TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.
THEREFORE, STRATUS COVERAGE WILL BE LESS FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF
APPROX. HALF MOON BAY. AREAS SOUTH, WILL FEEL LESS INFLUENCE FROM
THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS SO IT WILL BE MORE OF THE SAME -
CLOUDS/DRIZZLE.
THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT ON FRIDAY CONTINUES TO BE THE WIND. A
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SETTLE IN REINFORCING
PRESSURE GRADIENTS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THOUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY AND PEAK FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. 20-40 MPH GUSTS
SEEM PLAUSIBLE WITH SOME PEAK GUSTS OF 50 MPH.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 217 PM PDT THU AUG 14 2025
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
GRADIENTS RELAX OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DECREASING WINDS. EXPECT THE
MARINE LAYER TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH DRIZZLE. COOLER
WEATHER WITH LONGWAVE BROAD TROUGHING CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY. A
FOUR CORNERS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NUDGE IN FROM THE
EAST BY TUESDAY KICKING OFF A WARMING TREND. ALL IN ALL, PRETTY
MELLOW LONG TERM FORECAST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM PDT THU AUG 14 2025
CONDITIONS ARE RETURNING TO VFR LATE THIS MORNING, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MRY AND HAF WHERE IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HOWEVER, THEIR IS LOW TO MODERATE
CONFIDENCE FOR CONDITIONS AT BOTH SITES TO SCATTER OUT BRIEFLY THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR ONSHORE WINDS TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE EASING AFTER SUNSET AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY
TERMINALS AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AROUND THE BAY AREA TERMINALS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR IFR/MVFR CEILINGS TO MAKE AN EARLY RETURN TO THE
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
FOR THE BAY AREA TERMINALS TO RECEIVE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR. ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KT AT SFO. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR CEILINGS TO RETURN
AROUND THE BAY AREA TERMINALS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ONLY HAVE OAK
WITH A TEMPO FOR A FEW HOURS WITH NO CEILINGS AT SFO FRIDAY MORNING.
ONCE ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT DO DEVELOP SCATTER OUT AND/OR CLEAR,
ONSHORE WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR WIND SPEEDS TO BE STRONGER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...IFR/MVFR. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
FOR MRY TO REMAIN MVFR THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MEANWHILE, SNS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS HERE WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
EASING AFTER SUNSET. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR IFR/MVFR (POTENTIALLY
LOWERING TO LIFR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING) TO RETURN THIS EVENING AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 913 AM PDT THU AUG 14 2025
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY FOR
THE INNER WATERS AND OUTER WATERS DUE TO FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
OUTER WATERS AND COASTAL JET REGIONS OF POINT REYES AND POINT SUR.
THE BAYS WILL EXPERIENCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
DUE TO FRESH TO STRONG WESTERLY BREEZES WITH NEAR-GALE FORCE
GUSTS. BREEZES WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BY LATE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE
THAT TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE INNER WATERS AND OUTER WATERS
WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE SEAS BY SUNDAY.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR MRY BAY-SF
BAY N OF BAY BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR MRY BAY-
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PT ARENA
TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10
NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PT REYES TO
PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PT PINOS TO PT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PT PINOS TO PT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-
60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....MM
AVIATION...RGASS
MARINE...RGASS
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, X, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
X.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page