941
FXUS66 KMTR 152137
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
237 PM PDT FRI AUG 15 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1211 AM PDT FRI AUG 15 2025
- STRONG NW WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
- MODERATE HEATRISK TODAY IN PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR NORTH AND
EAST BAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 230 PM PDT FRI AUG 15 2025
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
LOTS TO SEE ON THE AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER CA: STRATUS
OVER THE EPAC/COASTAL WATER, STANDING WAVE CLOUDS DOWNSTREAM OF PT
REYES, OCCASIONAL WISPS OF SMOKE FROM VARIOUS FIRES, SWIRLING
EDDIES ALONG THE SOCAL COAST, AND THUNDERSTORMS POPPING OFF OVER
THE SIERRA. THERE ARE A FEW INTERESTING THINGS TO HIGHLIGHT AT THE
SURFACE TOO: WINDS ARE INCREASING ALONG THE COAST/INLAND AND A
SOLID TEMPERATURE REBOUND INLAND. WE'RE IN A LITTLE BIT OF A
TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER AS TEMPERATURES WERE COOL THURSDAY,
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDED TODAY, AND WE'LL SEE ANOTHER COOLDOWN THIS
WEEKEND.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY: THE ONSHORE GRADIENT IS PUSHING 3
MB WHILE THE N-S GRADIENT CONTINUES INCREASE AS WELL. THE RESULT?
INCREASING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE STILL
THE BIGGEST NEAR TERM IMPACT. IF YOU HAVE EVENING PLANS JUST BE
PREPARED FOR SOME BREEZY TO GUSTY CONDITIONS. THANKFULLY, WINDS
WILL EASE OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS RELAX. THE RELAXING
GRADIENTS WILL LEAD TO BETTER STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY, AN UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REINFORCE
STRATUS DEVELOP TONIGHT. THEREFORE EXPECT MORE STRATUS COVERAGE
ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND, ESPECIALLY N AND E BAY. THE LOW LEVELS
WILL BE MOIST ENOUGH THAT WE'LL LIKELY WRING OUT SOME DRIZZLE
EARLY SATURDAY. SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN FRIDAY WITH SOME
INLAND SUNSHINE, BUT COAST WILL HOLD ONTO SOME CLOUDS. THERE'S
NOTHING IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AS OF NOW, BUT ONE THING WE'LL BE
WATCHING CLOSELY WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. LATEST NWP CAMS ARE NOW
SUGGESTING A FEW POPCORN SHOWERS RIDING THE TAIL END OF A COLD
FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH NORCAL. IF THEY DO OCCUR IMPACTS WILL BE
MINIMAL FOR THE BAY AREA.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 236 PM PDT FRI AUG 15 2025
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
FURTHER COOLING IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY IN A POST FRONTAL REGIME.
SUNDAY'S MAX TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID-
AUGUST. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM SUNDAY
BEGINS TO RETROGRADE AS THE RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS BUILDS
WEST. THE BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KICK OFF A WARMING
TREND SLOWLY ON MONDAY/TUESDAY. MORE WIDESPREAD WARMING RETURN
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS FAR INLAND LOCATIONS MAKE A RUN AT
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT AGAIN. AS OF NOW, ENOUGH ONSHORE FLOW REMAINS
NEXT WEEK SO HEAT WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO INTERIOR LOCATION. A
VERY COMMON THEME THIS SUMMER.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1046 AM PDT FRI AUG 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE RETURNING TO SITES THAT HAD BEEN MVFR EARLIER
THIS MORNING WITH ALL SITES EXPECT FOR HAF WHERE IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. A MODERATE TO STRONG
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
FOR MVFR CONDITIONS RETURNING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AROUND THE BAY
AREA TERMINALS (POTENTIALLY LOWERING TO IFR).
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR. ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS AT SFO GREATER THAN 35KT THROUGH ABOUT 05Z SATURDAY.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO RETURN EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL TO LOWER TO IFR AROUND SUNRISE.
LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND POTENTIALLY LINGER
THROUGH ABOUT 20Z SATURDAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE WEAKER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, YET GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...LOW CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO SCATTER OUT
SOONER ON SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE APPROACH. OTHERWISE, SIMILAR TO
SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR. ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AN EARLY RETURN OF MVFR CEILINGS
THAT WILL THEN LOWER TO IFR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1046 AM PDT FRI AUG 15 2025
NORTHWESTERLY GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE BUILDING ACROSS MUCH THE
WATERS AND LOOK TO LAST INTO LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BAYS WILL
EXPERIENCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DUE TO FRESH
TO STRONG WESTERLY BREEZES WITH NEAR-GALE FORCE GUSTS. BREEZES
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BY LATE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL EASING
OCCURING EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE INNER WATERS AND OUTER WATERS WITH
MODERATE SEAS BY SUNDAY.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM-SF BAY N OF
BAY BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR SF BAY N
OF BAY BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR MRY BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR MRY BAY.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-
10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PT REYES TO
PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....MM
AVIATION...RGASS
MARINE...RGASS
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