771
FXUS66 KMTR 160948
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
248 AM PDT SAT AUG 16 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 236 AM PDT SAT AUG 16 2025
- CLOUDY AND DRIZZLY MORNING WITH SOME SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES ALONG
THE COAST.
- WINDS EASE THIS EVENING
- COOL FOR SUNDAY, BUT WARMING FOR THE NEXT WORK WEEK
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 236 AM PDT SAT AUG 16 2025
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
TONIGHT'S FORECAST WAS BROUGHT TO YOU IN PART BY CAFFEINE. WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION HAVE PEAKED AND HAVE BEGUN TO REDUCE, BUT WILL
STAY BREEZY IN THE INTERIOR EAST BAY FOR SATURDAY. CLOUD COVER
CONTINUES TO BUILD WITH DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN AFFECTING THE
COAST. A FAIR BIT OF POLISHING WAS DONE TO THE DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN
CHANCES INTO THE MORNING AND LINGERING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THESE PRECIP CHANCES COME FROM SOME WARM SECTOR MOISTURE AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. SAID COLD FRONT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
THAT AFFECTED THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLIER TODAY, BUT HAS SINCE
LOST MUCH OF ITS STRENGTH. SO FOR US, IT'LL CAUSE CLOUDY AND DRIZZLY
CONDITIONS WITH SOME MOMENTS OF LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
CLOUD COVER WILL STRUGGLE TO ERODE, WITH ONLY THE INTERIOR AREAS AND
HIGHER ELEVATIONS SEEING CLEARING SKIES. SHORT TERM MODELS ALSO HINT
AT COASTAL AREAS KEEPING DRIZZLE CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY WITH
PATCHES OF FOG; A VERY FOGUST-LIKE DAY FOR THE 16TH OF AUGUST.
MORE ORGANIZED RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO STAY TO THE NORTH, BUT THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERNMOST
PORTIONS OF NAPA AND SONOMA COUNTIES INTO THE EVENING ALONG THE
FRONT ITSELF. HOWEVER IF THESE SHOWERS BREAK INTO THE NORTH BAY
COUNTIES, THEY DON'T LOOK PARTICULARLY IMPACTFUL.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT, LEADING TO LESS
DRIZZLE CHANCES, AND NOT AS WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER (BUT STILL FAIRLY
CLOUDY FOR THE COAST, BAYS AND IMMEDIATE VALLEYS).
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 236 AM PDT SAT AUG 16 2025
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
SUNDAY SEES CONTINUED COOLING IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT,
MAKING IT THE COOLEST DAY OF THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE CWA. THE
PATTERN THEN BEGINS CHANGING TO A RIDGE SET UP INTO THE WORK WEEK,
LEADING TO SOME SLIGHT WARMING AND LESS CLOUD COVER FOR MONDAY. THE
WARMING TREND LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS AND THE MARINE LAYER COMPRESSES AND RETREATS. AS OF THE MOST
RECENT FORECAST UPDATE, THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND LOOK TO SEE
THE FAR INTERIOR BREAK INTO THE 100S. CONFIDENCE IN THIS WARMING
TREND IS INCREASING AMONGST THE LONGER TERM MODELS, BUT THE TIMING
OF WHEN THE HEAT BREAKS AND THE NEXT COOLING TREND IS STILL HARD TO
NARROW DOWN. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT THIS RIDGE WON'T BE QUICK TO
PUSH EAST, MEANING THE HEATING COULD LAST THROUGH THAT WEEKEND AND
INTO THE NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING WORTH CHECKING BACK IN ON
AS THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO UPDATE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 236 AM PDT SAT AUG 16 2025
VICINITY OF SFO...
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM PDT SAT AUG 16 2025
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES WITH STRONG GUSTS WILL
POSE WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT TODAY.
NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES WILL DIMINISH TO BECOME GENTLE TO MODERATE
TOMORROW, BUILDING AGAIN WEDNESDAY. MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH TUESDAY, BUILDING TO BECOME ROUGH FOR THE OUTER WATERS BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SF
BAY N OF BAY BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR SF BAY N OF BAY BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR MRY BAY.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR PT ARENA TO
PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PT REYES TO
PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...MURDOCK
LONG TERM....MURDOCK
AVIATION...SARMENT
MARINE...CANEPA
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, X, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
X.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page