995
FXUS66 KMTR 172326
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
426 PM PDT SUN AUG 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 159 PM PDT SUN AUG 17 2025
- PATCHY FOG AND/OR DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY MORNING
- WARMING TREND THIS WEEK
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 159 PM PDT SUN AUG 17 2025 (THIS EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY)
AFTERNOON SATELLITE SHOWS SOME REMNANTS OF A WEAK SURFACE COLD
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE THE COASTAL REACHES OF THE BAY AREA. THIS
HAS KEPT CLOUDS ALONG COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH BAY DOWN TO HALF MOON
BAY. BY ALL ACCOUNTS, THIS FRONT HAS STALLED. THIS STALLED
BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SOME DRIZZLE TO POTENTIALLY
DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PAINT IT INTO THE
FORECAST, SO LEFT IT WITH PATCHY FOG FOR NOW. THIS MAY NEED TO BE
UPDATED IF CONDITIONS CHANGE, NAMELY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRIES TO
HANG ON LONGER THAN EXPECTED. THE HIGHER PROBABILITY IS THAT THE
BOUNDARY FADES INTO OBSCURITY, ALLOWING FOR UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO
START TO FLEX AGAIN. OVERALL, TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL SEE
RELATIVELY NON-IMPACTFUL WEATHER.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 159 PM PDT SUN AUG 17 2025 (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
SATURDAY)
NOW TO THE IMPACTFUL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. HEAT. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL START TO
NOSE INTO OUR SERVICE AREA ON MONDAY, GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE CHALLENGE WITH THE FORECAST IS WHAT THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL DO. SO FAR THIS
SUMMER IT HAS BEEN SENDING TROUGHS ACROSS OUR AREA, KEEPING US ON
THE MODERATE SIDE WITH ONSHORE WINDS AND AMPLE MOISTURE. THIS
TREND LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE START OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER,
ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE INDICATING A STRENGTHENING OF THE 4 CORNERS
HIGH TO THE POINT THAT THERE IS INCREASING PROBABILITY THE HIGH
PRESSURE FORCES THE LOW PRESSURE OUT TO SEA. THE WAY TO WATCH THIS
OVER THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE STATE AND EVEN SOUTHER NV. AS THOSE HEAT UP, WE'LL BE
SEEING THE RIDGE BUILD TOWARDS US. IT'LL FIRST CONSUME INTERIOR
MONTEREY COUNTY AND SAN BENITO COUNTY, THEN CREEP INTO INTERIOR
EAST BAY AND MARCH INTO INTERIOR NORTH BAY. WE SHOULD SEE THE APEX
OF THE HEAT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE TWO CHALLENGES TO THE
FORECAST WILL MAGNITUDE OF THE HEAT AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE
HEAT. RIGHT NOW THE NBM HAS LESS THAN A 3 DEGREE SPREAD IN
PROBABILITIES OVER THE MOST IMPACTED AREAS. THAT SAID, THE ENTIRE
SPREAD COULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE, MEANING THE NBM IS UNDERDOING THE
MAGNITUDE. AT THIS POINT I WOULD GIVE THE FORECAST A 70% CHANCE OF
BEING UNDERDONE. AS WE GET MORE DATA AND SEE HOW THIS IS EVOLVING,
EXPECT THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THURS AND FRI TO INCREASE
BY A FEW DEGREES. TAKING MORE AREAS INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOW
100S. THIS PLAYS DIRECTLY INTO THE SECOND CHALLENGE, THE WESTWARD
REACH OF THE RIDGE. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HOW FAR
WEST THE RIDGE CAN NOSE AND ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE SIMPLY WASHING IT
OUT. IF THE PATTERNS OF THIS SUMMER HOLD TRUE, THE COAST WILL
REAMIN THE SANCTUARY FROM THE INTERIOR HEAT. HOWEVER, WE ARE REACH
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL TIME OF THE YEAR WE START TO SEE HEAT REACH THE
COAST. WHILE IT IS NOT A TRUE NATURE VS NURTURE ARGUMENT,
CLIMATE, OR "NATURE" IN THIS ANALOGY, DOES PLAY A ROLE AND MAY END
UP BEING THE ARBITER OF COASTAL HEAT. THE OCEAN PREDICTION
CENTER'S 96 HOUR FORECAST CHART SHOWS A THERMAL (OR INVERTED)
TROUGH THURSDAY MORNING JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE BAY AREA. THIS
SCREAMS HEAT MOVING CLOSER TO THE COAST. ALL THAT SAID, BE READY
FOR HEAT WHEREVER YOU ARE LOCATED. FROM SANTA CRUZ AND SAN
FRANCISCO TO BRENTWOOD AND PINNACLES, IT WILL GET HOT. HEATRISK
AT THIS TIME IS MOSTLY MODERATE FOR THURS AND FRI, BUT DON'T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE IT GO MAJOR WITH AREAS OF EXTREME. WE WILL BE
WATCHING THIS CLOSELY FOR ANY ISSUANCE OF HEAT PRODUCTS. EITHER
WAY IT WILL BE A JARRING SHIFT FROM BEING BELOW NORMAL FOR MONTHS
TO BEING 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. PREPARE NOW FOR A SHARP
WARM UP.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 426 PM PDT SUN AUG 17 2025
STRATUS LINGERS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF THE BAY AREA AND THE
WESTERN MONTEREY PENINSULA, WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE ELES.
BREEZY AND GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT, SOME MVFR-IFR STRATUS WILL FLOW INTO THE NORTH BAY
VALLEYS, THE NORTHERN BAY AREA, AND THE MONTEREY BAY REGION, WITH
SOME INLAND INTRUSIONS, ALTHOUGH THE CURENT FORECAST CALLS FOR SJC
AND LVK TO REMAIN CLEAR. STRATUS RETREATS TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST ON
MONDAY MORNING WITH BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW RESUMING IN THE AFTERNOON.
VICINITY OF SFO... VFR THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH MVFR CEILINGS
OVERNIGHT. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. STRATUS MIXES OUT
MONDAY MORNING WITH BREEZY WEST FLOW RESUMING IN THE AFTERNOON.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS... THE TERMINALS REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, POTENTIALLY INTO THE EVENING DEPENDING ON HOW THE PATCH
OF STRATUS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF MONTEREY PENINSULA EVOLVES. HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COASTAL REGIONS BY 08-
09Z. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE NOT DEPICTING MUCH INLAND INTRUSION
IN THE REGION, SO CONFIDENCE IN STRATUS IMPACTS AT SNS IS LOWER.
STRATUS MIXES OUT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, TURNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE RESUMING MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM PDT SUN AUG 17 2025
FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES ARE ANTICIPATED, LARGELY FOR WATERS
WITHIN 10 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE SHORELINE INCLUDING SAN FRANCISCO
AND MONTEREY BAY REGIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL EQUATE TO
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY FOR SMALLER VESSELS.
MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY SEAS ARE FORECAST THROUGH LATE MONDAY WITH
WAVE HEIGHTS SUBSIDING BRIEFLY ON TUESDAY. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS
ARE ADVERTISED MID-WEEK AND ONWARD AS NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES
INCREASE. SOUTHERLY SECONDARY SWELL WITH PERIODS OF 12 TO 16
SECONDS ARE FORECAST. HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 2
FEET.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR MRY BAY-
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-SF BAY N OF BAY BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PT PINOS TO PT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...BFG
LONG TERM....BFG
AVIATION...DIALH
MARINE...BAIN
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