715
FXUS66 KMTR 181101
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
401 AM PDT MON AUG 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 247 AM PDT MON AUG 18 2025
- WARMING INTO THE LATE WEEK
- MODERATE HEATRISK IN THE INLAND AREAS THURSDAY-SATURDAY
- SLIGHT COOLING INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT STILL WARM INTO THE NEXT
WORK WEEK
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 247 AM PDT MON AUG 18 2025
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
CLOUD COVER IS LESS WIDESPREAD THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS, WITH STILL SOME
FOCUS AROUND THE SF BAY FOR LINGERING LOW CLOUDS, BUT CLEAR
CONDITIONS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HALF MOON BAY. CLOUD COVER FOR AREAS
NOT ALONG THE COAST LOOKS TO BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY TODAY. THAT,
ALONG WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW, ALLOWS FOR SLIGHTLY
WARMER CONDITIONS THAN YESTERDAY FOR ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
HIGHS IN THE FAR INTERIOR LOOK TO PEAK IN THE LOW 90S, WHILE THE
COAST AND AREAS SLIGHTLY INLAND MOSTLY STICK TO THE 60S AND 70S.
WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO BACK OFF TODAY. ASIDE FROM THE REGULARLY
BREEZY PASSES AND VALLEYS, MOST OF THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO SEE
LIGHTER WINDS THAT WILL LAST INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 247 AM PDT MON AUG 18 2025
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
THE MARINE LAYER IS COMPRESSING AND WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS OUR UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO A RIDGE INTO THE WORK WEEK. AS
THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS, THE INTERIOR AREAS WILL REALLY
SEE THE WARMING TREND WHILE THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND ADJACENT VALLEYS
SEE ONLY SLIGHT WARMING AS THE MARINE LAYER IS SET TO COMPRESS, BUT
NOT COMPLETELY ERODE.
A QUICK NOTE ABOUT THE COAST: THE ASTRONOMICAL SET UP WILL GIVE US A
BIT MORE MOVEMENT IN THE TIDES INTO THE MID WEEK. THE HIGH TIDES
WILL BE HIGHER AND THE LOW TIDES WILL BE LOWER. THIS WILL GET HIGH
TIDE LEVELS CLOSE TO COASTAL FLOODING CRITERIA, BUT NOT CROSSING THE
THRESHOLD FOR COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES. IT'S STILL WORTH NOTING
BECAUSE PEOPLE MAY BE HEADING TO THE SF BAY SHORELINE TO BEAT THE
HEAT IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
METEOROLOGIST SARMENT, TONIGHT'S MARINE FORECASTER, PROVIDED SOME
ADDITIONAL INFO:
"LOCALIZED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN BAYSIDE MARIN
COUNTY THROUGH SUNDAY, AUGUST 24TH AS HIGH TIDES WILL REMAIN IN
EXCESS OF 6.0 FEET. COASTAL LOCATIONS THAT ARE DIRECTLY LOCATED NEXT
TO RICHARDSON BAY SUCH AS SAUSALITO, TAM VALLEY, MANZANITA, THE
SAUSALITO-MILL VALLEY BIKE PATH, AND THE MANZANITA PARK N RIDE CAN
EXPECT NUISANCE FLOODING WHERE TYPICALLY DRY LAND GETS WET. IMPACTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINOR AT MOST - REMEMBER, DO NOT DRIVE AROUND
BARRICADES OR THROUGH WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH."
GETTING BACK TO THE HEAT AND THE INTERIOR: MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
PEAKING/PLATEAUING OF THE WARMING TREND BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HIGHS LOOK TO BREAK INTO THE 100S FOR THE FAR INTERIOR. SOME
ISOLATED AREAS IN THE SANTA LUCIAS COULD BREAK INTO THE 110S DUE TO
LIMITED OVERNIGHT COOLING WITH AS HEAT GETS TRAPPED IN THE THERMAL
BELT IN THAT MOUNTAIN RANGE. LUCKILY, THESE TEMPS WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD, BUT HEATRISK DOES BECOME MODERATE FOR AREAS AWAY FROM
THE COAST WITH 90S TO LOW 100S POSSIBLE. THE COAST, HOWEVER LOOKS TO
BE PROTECTED BY A FAIRLY SHALLOW, BUT STILL INTACT MARINE LAYER,
KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S.
THE BIGGEST QUESTION IN THE LONGER TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE HOW
LONG THE HEAT PERSISTS. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING AT SMALL
IMPROVEMENTS TO ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND, OFFERING SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND COOLER STILL FOR SUNDAY. HOWEVER,
MODELS STILL KEEP US ADJACENT TO THE RIDGE. THEY ALSO DON'T LOOK TO
BREAK THE RIDGE NOR PUSH IT EAST UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK. THIS COULD CALL FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE
WELL INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 358 AM PDT MON AUG 18 2025
CURRENTLY A MIXED BAG OF LIFR-VFR AT THE TERMINALS. STRATUS HAS BEEN
HOLDING RELATIVELY STEADY OVERNIGHT WITH A SLIVER ALONG THE COAST
AND A PATCH IN THE EAST BAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS WILL BUILD AND NUDGE INTO THE REGION TODAY. AS A
RESULT, THE MARINE LAYER WILL COMPRESS, ALLOWING FOR LESS INLAND
EXTENT. THUS, ONLY BAYSHORE AND COASTAL TERMINALS HAVE SUB-VFR
CEILINGS RETURNING TONIGHT.
VICINITY OF SFO...CURRENTLY IFR WITH WESTERLY FLOW. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A 60% CHANCE FOR A SUB-VFR CEILING TO
RETURN TO THE TERMINAL TONIGHT. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...CURRENTLY VFR AND CALM AT MRY AND VFR WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW AT SNS. LOW (20-50%) CONFIDENCE IN SUB-VFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING THIS MORNING WITH LOW TO MODERATE (20-50%) CONFIDENCE ON
SUB-VFR CEILINGS RETURNING TO THE TERMINALS TONIGHT, GREATER CHANCES
FOR MRY.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM PDT MON AUG 18 2025
MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH STRONG
GUSTS ALONG THE COASTAL JET REGIONS OF POINT REYES AND POINT SUR
AND ACROSS THE BAYS. NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY
TO BECOME FRESH TO STRONG WITH WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR
SMALL CRAFT ACROSS THE INNER WATERS AND OUTER WATERS BY
WEDNESDAY. MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUILDING
TO BECOME ROUGH FOR THE OUTER WATERS BY THURSDAY.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR MRY BAY-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-SF BAY N
OF BAY BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT
TUESDAY FOR PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...MURDOCK
LONG TERM....MURDOCK
AVIATION...SARMENT
MARINE...SARMENT
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