324
FXUS66 KMTR 141139
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
439 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 256 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2025
- TEMPERATURES AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY
- MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK
- MODERATE HEATRISK POSSIBLE INLAND MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
- LATE WEEK PATTERN CHANGE
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 256 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2025
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
A WEAK COLD FRONT UNDER QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF PROGRESSIVE
RIDGING THAT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF OUR AREA WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY, AND SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS
MAX TEMPERATURES. STRATUS COVERAGE EARLY THIS MORNING IS NOT AS
EXTENSIVE AS PREVIOUS COUPLE NIGHTS, AS A DRIER AIRMASS GRADUALLY
SETS IN OVER OUR AREA AHEAD OF THE WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK. STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE EVEN MORE
LIMITED THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO
MIX DOWN FROM MID-LEVELS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 256 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2025
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARRIVE MONDAY WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGING
PATTERN OVER WESTERN CONUS. JUST A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO, MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTED THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE IMPACTFUL HEAT EVENT FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. BETTER CONSENSUS IN
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS NOW PROVIDING A CLEARER PICTURE FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES TO PEAK TUESDAY (ALTHOUGH ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER ON
WEDNESDAY). H85 TEMPS JUMP INTO THE 75TH PERCENTILE (18C-19C) MONDAY
AFTERNOON, THEN UP TO THE 95TH PERCENTILE (21C-22C) FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE PIVOTS EAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RUN ROUGHLY 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE INTERIOR, ESPECIALLY THE EAST BAY
HILLS, SOUTH BAY, SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN MONTEREY
COUNTY. BY LATE WEDNESDAY, A DEEPENING TROUGH TO OUR NORTH AND A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST OFFSHORE BEGIN A PATTERN SHIFT THAT
BECOMES MORE UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD TOWARD LATE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 428 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2025
VERY DISCONTINUOUS STRATUS PATTERN THIS MORNING RESULTING IN HIGH
THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY FOR BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST TERMINALS.
CLEARING SKIES FOR NORTH BAY TERMINALS RESULTING IN LOCAL FG
IMPACTS THAT WILL LIKELY LINGER UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNRISE.
WE SHOULD SEE A CLEARING OF STRATUS AROUND THE BAY AREA FOLLOWED
BY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR REDEVELOPMENT AROUND SUNRISE. OTHERWISE VFR
WITH A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF VFR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WHEN COMPARED
TO LAST NIGHT.
VICINITY OF SFO...CURRENTLY VFR AS OF WRITING, BUT HIGH RES
GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A PATCHY STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT INVOF
KOAK/KSFO AROUND SUNRISE BEFORE QUICKLY MIXING OUT TO VFR ONCE
AGAIN. THIS IS THE MAIN REASON FOR UNCERTAINTY THIS MORNING.
BEYOND THAT, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR INTO THIS EVENING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...AMPLE CLEARING OVERNIGHT HAS LED TO
PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT INVOF THE MONTEREY PENINSULA AND
NORTHERN SALINAS VALLEY. CURRENTLY ANTICIPATING THESE IMPACTS TO
LAST INTO THE MORNING HOURS, AT LEAST IN THE FORM OF IFR STRATUS.
RELATIVELY SHORT VFR WINDOW TODAY BEFORE MVFR CIGS FILL BACK IN
THE THE 00Z HOUR. HOWEVER, THIS IS A LOWER-THAN-NORMAL CONFIDENCE
SCENARIO. HI RES GUIDANCE HAS BEEN ADVERTISING ANOTHER ROUND OF
VERY LOCALIZED CLOUDS INTO MONDAY MORNING.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2025
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES ALONG PROMINENT COASTAL JET AREAS.
MODERATE SEAS PERSIST, ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE. WIDESPREAD FRESH TO
STRONG BREEZES BUILD ACROSS THE REST OF THE WATERS INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR MRY BAY-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT MONDAY
FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60
NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PT PINOS TO PT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...BEHRINGER
MARINE...BEHRINGER
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