790
FXUS66 KMTR 141726
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1026 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 900 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2025
- TEMPERATURES AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY
- MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK WITH MODERATE HEAT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY
- LATE WEEK PATTERN CHANGE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 900 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2025
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE, WITH JUST SOME MINOR
ALTERATIONS TO WEATHER/SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS. SATELLITE
IMAGERY ILLUSTRATES PATCHY MARINE STRATUS ACROSS THE COASTAL REGION
THIS MORNING, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE PACIFIC SIDE OF THE SF
PENINSULA, EAST BAY SHORELINE, AND SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY. THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG RESIDES ACROSS SF AND SOUTHWARD
ALONG CA HWY 1 THROUGH TO REGIONS NEAR/NORTH OF DAVENPORT IN SANTA
CRUZ COUNTY. I ANTICIPATE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, THE THE EXCEPTION BEING ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST ALONG
THE SF PENINSULA. OTHERWISE, GUSTY WINDS NEAR 30 MPH THROUGH SOME
OF THE GAPS AND PASSES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY, ESPECIALLY WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEA-BREEZE KICKING IN.
OTHERWISE, THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED AND
WE'LL PROVIDE MORE DETAILS ON THIS WEEK'S HEAT AND HIGH-BASED
CONVECTION POTENTIAL LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 256 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2025
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
A WEAK COLD FRONT UNDER QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF PROGRESSIVE
RIDGING THAT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF OUR AREA WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY, AND SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS
MAX TEMPERATURES. STRATUS COVERAGE EARLY THIS MORNING IS NOT AS
EXTENSIVE AS PREVIOUS COUPLE NIGHTS, AS A DRIER AIRMASS GRADUALLY
SETS IN OVER OUR AREA AHEAD OF THE WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK. STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE EVEN MORE
LIMITED THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO
MIX DOWN FROM MID-LEVELS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 256 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2025
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARRIVE MONDAY WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGING
PATTERN OVER WESTERN CONUS. JUST A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO, MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTED THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE IMPACTFUL HEAT EVENT FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. BETTER CONSENSUS IN
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS NOW PROVIDING A CLEARER PICTURE FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES TO PEAK TUESDAY (ALTHOUGH ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER ON
WEDNESDAY). H85 TEMPS JUMP INTO THE 75TH PERCENTILE (18C-19C) MONDAY
AFTERNOON, THEN UP TO THE 95TH PERCENTILE (21C-22C) FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE PIVOTS EAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RUN ROUGHLY 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE INTERIOR, ESPECIALLY THE EAST BAY
HILLS, SOUTH BAY, SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN MONTEREY
COUNTY. BY LATE WEDNESDAY, A DEEPENING TROUGH TO OUR NORTH AND A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST OFFSHORE BEGIN A PATTERN SHIFT THAT
BECOMES MORE UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD TOWARD LATE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1024 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2025
CONDITIONS HAVE MOSTLY RETURNED TO VFR THIS MORNING WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KOAK WHERE MVFR PREVAILS AND KHAF WHERE IFR
PERSISTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR ONSHORE WINDS TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE EASING LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. GENERALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR FOR MOST TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING (THE EXCEPTION BEING
KHAF WHERE IFR/MVFR IS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD). LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS TO RETURN TO THE BAY AREA TERMINALS LATE THIS EVENING
WHICH WILL PERSIST OFF AND ON THROUGH THE MIDMORNING ON MONDAY.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR IFR/MVFR CEILINGS TO RETURN OVER
THE MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
POTENTIALLY LOWERING TO LIFR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE WINDS ONCE
AGAIN.
VICINITY OF SFO...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY
LATE MORNING AND ONSHORE WINDS TO INCREASE. LOW TO MODERATE
CONFIDENCE FOR IFR/MVFR CEILINGS TO RETURN TO THE BAY AREA TERMINALS
LATE THIS EVENING WHICH WILL PERSIST OFF AND ON THROUGH THE
MIDMORNING ON MONDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN
BY 16-18Z MONDAY WITH INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS
THE REGION FROM 10Z-16Z MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH INCREASING
ONSHORE WINDS. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR IFR/MVFR CEILINGS
TO RETURN OVER THE MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING POTENTIALLY LOWERING TO LIFR EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 900 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2025
A GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, EASING BY FRIDAY OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. FRESH TO STRONG GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
FAVORED COASTAL JET REGIONS AND ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ZONES THROUGH
MONDAY CREATING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. MODERATE
SEAS PERSIST, ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE AND WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH MIDWEEK
BEFORE BUILDING AGAIN LATE WEEK.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR MRY BAY-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT MONDAY
FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60
NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PT PINOS TO PT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
UPDATE...BAIN
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...RGASS
MARINE...RGASS
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