699
FXUS66 KMTR 170455
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
955 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 130 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2025
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MODERATE HEATRISK PERSISTS TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
- ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 123 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2025
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
NEAR TERM - COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER LINGERING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON IS WREAKING HAVOC ON MAX TEMPS AT THE
SHORELINE. THE ONSHORE FLOW AND LINGERING CLOUDS ARE RESULTING IN
A SLOWER RISE IN TEMPS AND COOLER 24 HOUR TRENDS. THE FORECAST
HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS. ONCE YOU MOVE INLAND AND AWAY
FROM THE MARINE INFLUENCE TEMPERATURES SOAR WITH 90S AND A FEW
100S - OR ABOUT 5 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY: THE MARINE LAYER LURKING ALONG THE COAST
WILL COME INLAND SLOWLY WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. IT WILL BE COMPRESSED AGAIN SO WE'LL NEED TO MONITOR VSBY
FOR ANOTHER DENSE FOG ADVISORY. EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF ACTIVE
THERMAL BELTS WITH MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER.
THE BIG ITEM OF NOTE TONIGHT WILL BE THE INFLUX OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE ALONG THE SOCAL AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. LET'S TAKE
A LOOK AT THE COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE PATTERN. A FEW NOTABLE
FEATURES: RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING OVER CA/PACNW(BRINGING
THE HOT WX), AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NW,
TO THE SOUTH THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LOW SPINNING WEST OF THE
CHANNEL ISLAND, AND EVEN FARTHER SOUTH IS TD MARIO JUST WEST OF
BAJA. OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HRS THE RIDGE WILL EASE EASTWARD AS THE
TWO LOWS INCH CLOSER TO THE CA COAST. THIS UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN WILL HELP TO USHER MARIO TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THE
TIMING OF THE MOISTURE HAS VARIED AS OF LATE AND EVEN THE LATEST
GUIDANCE IS STILL STRUGGLING. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY ALREADY HAS
THE LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER PWAT NEAR PT CONCEPTION. THAT BEING
SAID, CURRENT FORECAST WILL BRING MOISTURE NORTH OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY, BUT PRIMARILY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. AS
MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD INSTABILITY INCREASES OVER THE CENTRAL
COAST COASTAL WATERS. THEREFORE, WILL HAVE A MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WAS CONCERN OF DRY LIGHTNING, BUT GIVEN THE
WESTWARD TRACK OF THE INITIAL PUSH WILL NOT HAVE A MENTION OVER
LAND. SHIFT THIS SCENARIO FARTHER EAST AND NOW WE'RE DEALING WITH
A HIGHER IMPACT SCENARIO WITH DRY LIGHTNING OVER THE SANTA LUCIA
RANGE. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IS NOT THAT
UNUSUAL EITHER. FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY: IF THERE ARE STORMS
OVER THE WATERS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE FADE EARLY IN THE
DAY BEFORE FIRING AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. ONE FINAL DAY OF
MODERATE TO ISOLATED MAJOR HEATRISK WITH TEMPS IN THE 90S TO NEAR
100 ACROSS THE INTERIOR. ONE POTENTIAL BUST SCENARIO ARE HIGH
CLOUDS IMPACTING INSOLATION, BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARD THE MILD
AIRMASS YIELDING HOT TEMPS.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 233 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2025
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
WEDNESDAY DAY WAS JUST A PREVIEW OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. THE MAIN
PUSH OF HIGH PWAT AIR WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS PUSH WILL INITIALLY IMPACT PASO ROBLES AND SOUTH
BEFORE REACHING SOUTHERN MONTEREY/SAN BENITO BY THURSDAY MORNING.
GIVEN THE PWAT SIGNATURE ON PROFILES WILL LEAN TOWARD WETTER
STORMS MITIGATING DRY LIGHTNING CONCERNS. MUCAPE AND LAPSE RATES
DO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY SUGGESTING THE THREAT FOR
EMBEDDED TSTORMS REMAIN. CAMS ALSO KEEPS THIS IDEA GOING THROUGH
THE DAY. ADDITIONAL LIFT MAYBE ENHANCED FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD
SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY EVENING
THE CONVECTIVE THREAT ENDS, BUT SHOWERS WILL LINGER FOR FRIDAY AND
EVEN INTO SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE PROBLEMATIC FOR TWO
REASON: TROPICAL NATURE AND CONVECTIVE BULLSEYES. A FEW HUNDREDTHS
TO A TENTH OR TWO IS A GOOD START, BUT LOCAL JACKPOTS UP TO ONE
HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE.
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FINALLY RETURN SUNDAY. THE DRY PERIOD
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL CHANCES RETURN MONDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 955 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2025
FOG IS BUILDING BACK IN ALONG THE COASTLINE WITH HAF CURRENTLY
REPORTING 1/2SM FOG. FOGGY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD TO MRY
AND SNS OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT IFR-LIFR CIGS
WILL AT LEAST TEMPORARILY REACH OAK OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT SITES ALONG THE COAST AND POTENTIALLY OAK WILL SEE
LIFR CIGS GIVEN THE LOWERING MARINE LAYER ACROSS THE BAY AREA.
THINKING REMAINS THAT SAME THAT STRATUS WILL NOT REACH SFO WITH ANY
STRATUS OVER THE BAY LIMITED TO THE EASTERN PORTIONS. FOG AND
STRATUS WILL CLEAR BY LATE MORNING WITH HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING IN
ACROSS THE REGION. NOT ANTICIPATING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO
IMPACT AIRPORTS ON WEDNESDAY BUT THIS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY
HEADING INTO THURSDAY.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
THAT STRATUS WILL NOT IMPACT SFO OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
THAT STRATUS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BAY
(IMPACTING OAK) BUT WILL NOT FILL IN FAR ENOUGH WESTWARD TO IMPACT
SFO. IF SFO DOES SEE STRATUS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IT LIKELY WILL NOT
OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 12/13Z. GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS WILL PEAK AROUND 25
KNOTS BEFORE DECREASING TOMORROW NIGHT.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...LIFR WITH FOGGY CONDITIONS LIKELY DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. FOG AND LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE AROUND 17Z. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL IN MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR CLEARING TO BE DELAYED UNTIL 19/20Z BUT WENT WITH 17Z BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND NBM GUIDANCE. BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE IFR-LIFR CIGS RETURN TOMORROW NIGHT.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 955 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2025
A MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY, INCREASING TO A FRESH BREEZE BY LATE WEDNESDAY WITH A
FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. GALE FORCE
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. MODERATE SEAS BUILD WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY, BECOMING ROUGH ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. WAVE HEIGHTS
BETWEEN 9 TO 14 FEET ARE EXPECTED OVER THE OUTER WATERS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND A LOW, NON-ZERO, CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 225 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2025
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
- THREAT FOR DRY LIGHTNING HAS DIMINISHED, BUT DIDN'T COMPLETELY
GO AWAY.
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY DUE
TO HOT, DRY, AND AFTERNOON BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS. TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FEATURED INTERIOR TEMPS OF A HOT 101 AND A CRISPY 11% AT ARROYO
SECO. EXPECT ANOTHER REPEAT AWAY FROM THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY.
DON'T EXPECT MUCH RELIEF TONIGHT EITHER AS THERMAL BELTS WILL BE
VERY PRONOUNCED WITH MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL BE MODERATE TO POOR
OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS. STILL HAVE CONCERNS REGARDING LOW
CONFIDENCE HIGH IMPACT SCENARIO AS TROPICAL MOISTURE BRINGS A
CHANCE FOR ELEVATED/HIGH- BASED THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER ASSESSING THE
LATEST GUIDANCE AND COORDINATING WITH OTHER OFFICES AND FIRE
PARTNERS DECIDED TO NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME.
THE INITIAL THREAT FOR DRY LIGHTNING IS DECREASING WITH FOCUS
OVER THE OCEAN ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IF THE THREAT
SHIFTS EAST WE'LL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE. ONCE CONVECTION CHANCES
INCREASE OVER LAND THURSDAY ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD BE PRESENT
THAT STORMS WILL BE WETTER VS DRIER.
MM
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM PDT THURSDAY
FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM PDT THURSDAY
FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....MM
AVIATION...KENNEDY
MARINE...KENNEDY
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