166
FXUS66 KMTR 222145
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
245 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 141 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2025
- A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- LARGE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO BRING HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 153 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2025
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE LOCAL WEATHER.
WHILE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED AROUND OUR REGION THEY'RE STILL
FIRING OVER THE SIERRA. THERE WERE APPROX OVER 1,000 LIGHTNING
STRIKES AROUND THE CENTRAL COAST AND CENTRAL VALLEY EARLIER TODAY
SINCE MIDNIGHT. EVEN THOUGH THUNDER HAS DIMINISHED LINGERING
SHOWERS ARE STILL BEING PICKED UP ON KMUX RADAR. AS MOISTURE
WRAPS AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW ISOLATE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY N AND E BAY. NO
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATING PRECIP WITH THESE
SHOWERS.
BY TONIGHT, ALL PRECIP ENDS AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THE MARINE LAYER WILL
COMPRESS, BUT STILL FORM UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE. MUCH DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. ALL IN ALL, A NICE
DAY FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 243 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2025 (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY)
DRY WEATHER LINGERS INTO EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE WET WEATHER RETURNS
TO THE BAY AREA. THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE GETS KICKED EASTWARD AS A
NOTABLE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH TAKE AIM AT THE WEST
COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. MOST OF FRIDAY STILL
LOOKS DRY WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN ARRIVING AFTER THE NORTH BAY
EVENING COMMUTE. THE INITIAL PUSH OF RAIN IS TIED TO A SOLID
MOISTURE PLUME (OVER 1 IN) JUST TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY EVENING. THIS
MOISTURE PLUME, WHICH DOES TIE BACK TO THE SUB-TROPICS, WILL
FINALLY SLIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS IS GOOD
NEWS FROM AN IMPACT STANDPOINT MEANING LESS CHANCE OF STALLING AND
CAUSING FLOODING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A WEAKENING OR BRIEF BREAK
IN PRECIP ACTIVITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
MAIN PLUME DROPS SOUTH. QUICK ON ITS HEELS IS A SECOND MOISTURE
SURGE TOWARD THE COAST, WHICH WILL REINVIGORATE PRECIP CHANCES IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARL MONDAY. WE
FINALLY BEGIN TO DRY OUT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP WILL BE PRIMARILY FOCUSED NORTH OF MONTEREY BAY, ESPECIALLY
THE NORTH BAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE TRENDING LOWER IN PREVIOUS
FORECAST, BUT NOT THEY'RE STAYING PRETTY STEADY: 0.25-0.75" N BAY,
0.10" BAY AREA, LESS THAN 0.10 ELSEWHERE. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT THE
INTERIOR CENTRAL COAST WILL REMAIN DRY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2025
MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE REGION CURRENTLY WITH CEILINGS
FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON TO VFR. HOWEVER, LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT OFF
AND ON MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RATHER HIGH
CONFIDENCE (60-80%) PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO RETURN LATE
TONIGHT AND POTENTIALLY LOWERING TO IFR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MOST
TAF SITES WILL RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING OR
EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ONSHORE WINDS.
VICINITY OF SFO...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON RETURNING TO VFR THROUGH LATE EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS
ARE LIKELY TO RETURN TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING, POTENTIALLY
LOWERING TO IFR AT TIMES THURSDAY MORNING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST
THROUGH LATE EVENING BEFORE MVFR CEILINGS RETURN THEREAFTER. THERE
IS A GREATER PROBABILITY FOR IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
THAN TERMINALS FARTHER NORTH.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2025
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THIS MORNING WITH DRIER CONDITIONS RETURNING BY THIS
AFTERNOON. A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE PERSISTS THROUGH TODAY
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. ISOLATED GUSTY
CONDITIONS MAY EXIST AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING. SEAS ABATE INTO THURSDAY BEFORE BUILDING AGAIN FRIDAY
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1136 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2025
THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT HAS BEEN EXTENDED OUT IN TIME THROUGH 3
AM THURSDAY AS A MODERATE TO LONG PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY IS CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS OFF OF THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL
COAST. THESE CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN BREAKING WAVES OF 12 TO 17
FEET AND UP TO OR EXCEEDING 25 FEET AT FAVORED BREAK POINTS SUCH AS
MAVERICKS. SNEAKER WAVES CAN UNEXPECTEDLY RUN SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER
UP THE BEACH THAN NORMAL, INCLUDING OVER ROCKS AND JETTIES. RIP
CURRENTS ARE TYPICALLY MORE FREQUENT AND STRONGER IN THE VICINITY OF
JETTIES, INLETS, AND PIERS. SWIMMERS SHOULD ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A
LIFEGUARD. REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER TO AVOID HAZARDOUS SWIMMING
CONDITIONS AND NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN!
ANOTHER MODERATE TO LONG PERIOD SWELL IS FORECAST TO RETURN SHORTLY
AFTER WITH SIMILAR BREAKING WAVES AND AN INCREASED RISK FOR SNEAKER
AND RIP CURRENTS. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
RGASS/SARMENT
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CAZ006-505-509-
529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PT ARENA
TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PIGEON
PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....MM
AVIATION...RGASS
MARINE...RGASS
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