166
FXUS66 KMTR 230443
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
943 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION, BEACHES
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 141 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2025
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- LARGE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO BRING HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 905 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2025
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK TONIGHT AS WE DRY OUT FOR ABOUT 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO IMPACT THE NORTH BAY BY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TRENDING DRIER AS WE APPROACH
THE ONSET OF RAINFALL, WITH MOSTLY WETTING RAIN EXPECTED FOR THE
NORTH BAY AND BENEFICIAL RAIN FOR LOCATIONS THAT SEE ANY RAINFALL
AT ALL FROM THE BAY AREA SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL COAST OVER THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 153 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2025
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE LOCAL WEATHER.
WHILE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED AROUND OUR REGION THEY'RE STILL
FIRING OVER THE SIERRA. THERE WERE APPROX OVER 1,000 LIGHTNING
STRIKES AROUND THE CENTRAL COAST AND CENTRAL VALLEY EARLIER TODAY
SINCE MIDNIGHT. EVEN THOUGH THUNDER HAS DIMINISHED LINGERING
SHOWERS ARE STILL BEING PICKED UP ON KMUX RADAR. AS MOISTURE
WRAPS AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW ISOLATE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY N AND E BAY. NO
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATING PRECIP WITH THESE
SHOWERS.
BY TONIGHT, ALL PRECIP ENDS AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THE MARINE LAYER WILL
COMPRESS, BUT STILL FORM UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE. MUCH DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. ALL IN ALL, A NICE
DAY FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 243 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2025 (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY)
DRY WEATHER LINGERS INTO EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE WET WEATHER RETURNS
TO THE BAY AREA. THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE GETS KICKED EASTWARD AS A
NOTABLE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH TAKE AIM AT THE WEST
COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. MOST OF FRIDAY STILL
LOOKS DRY WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN ARRIVING AFTER THE NORTH BAY
EVENING COMMUTE. THE INITIAL PUSH OF RAIN IS TIED TO A SOLID
MOISTURE PLUME (OVER 1 IN) JUST TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY EVENING. THIS
MOISTURE PLUME, WHICH DOES TIE BACK TO THE SUB-TROPICS, WILL
FINALLY SLIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS IS GOOD
NEWS FROM AN IMPACT STANDPOINT MEANING LESS CHANCE OF STALLING AND
CAUSING FLOODING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A WEAKENING OR BRIEF BREAK
IN PRECIP ACTIVITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
MAIN PLUME DROPS SOUTH. QUICK ON ITS HEELS IS A SECOND MOISTURE
SURGE TOWARD THE COAST, WHICH WILL REINVIGORATE PRECIP CHANCES IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARL MONDAY. WE
FINALLY BEGIN TO DRY OUT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP WILL BE PRIMARILY FOCUSED NORTH OF MONTEREY BAY, ESPECIALLY
THE NORTH BAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE TRENDING LOWER IN PREVIOUS
FORECAST, BUT NOT THEY'RE STAYING PRETTY STEADY: 0.25-0.75" N BAY,
0.10" BAY AREA, LESS THAN 0.10 ELSEWHERE. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT THE
INTERIOR CENTRAL COAST WILL REMAIN DRY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 941 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2025
CURRENTLY VFR AT THE TERMINALS. A NUANCED TAF PERIOD IS ON TAP AS
THE PATTERN SHIFTS FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW TO UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDGING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR-MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT. WHILE THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR FOG AT STS DUE TO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A COMPRESSING MARINE
LAYER, HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN LOWERED CONFIDENCE ENOUGH TO REMOVE
IT FROM THE TAF.
VICINITY OF SFO...CURRENTLY VFR WITH WESTERLY FLOW. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE (65%) IN A CEILING ON THE CUSP OF MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING
TONIGHT WITH A LATE-MORNING CLEARING TIME. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...CURRENTLY VFR WITH DRAINAGE FLOW AT BOTH
TERMINALS. HIGH CONFIDENCE (80%) IN CEILINGS ON THE CUSP OF MVFR/IFR
DEVELOPING AT BOTH TERMINALS TONIGHT WITH A LATE-MORNING CLEARING.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 905 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2025
A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. ROUGH
SEAS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE INNER WATERS AND OUTER WATERS, BUILDING
TO BECOME VERY ROUGH IN THE OUTER WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. RAIN
SHOWERS RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 941 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2025
A MODERATE TO LONG PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL RESULT IN
BREAKING WAVES OF 12 TO 17 FEET, WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES UP TO 25
FEET IN FAVORED LOCATIONS, AND AN INCREASED RISK FOR SNEAKER WAVES
AND RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SNEAKER WAVES CAN
UNEXPECTEDLY RUN SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER UP THE BEACH THAN NORMAL,
INCLUDING OVER ROCKS AND JETTIES. RIP CURRENTS ARE TYPICALLY MORE
FREQUENT AND STRONGER IN THE VICINITY OF JETTIES, INLETS, AND
PIERS. SWIMMERS SHOULD ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD. REMAIN OUT OF
THE WATER TO AVOID HAZARDOUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS AND NEVER TURN
YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN!
SARMENT
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PT ARENA
TO PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PIGEON
PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....MM
AVIATION...SARMENT
MARINE...SARMENT
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, X, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
X.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page