255
FXUS66 KMTR 230837
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
137 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1232 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2025
- NICE WEATHER THURSDAY - FRIDAY
- BENEFICIAL RAIN ACROSS THE BAY AREA THIS WEEKEND
- LARGE SWELL WILL RETURN FRIDAY WITH HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1232 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2025
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
A SHORT WAVE RIDGE IS BUILDING AND WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE IN
THE SHORT TERM, BRINGING FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. THE MARINE
LAYER IS REFORMING TONIGHT AND THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL START
TO FILL IN WITH LOW STRATUS BY SUNRISE. THESE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR IN
THE LATE MORNING BEFORE A FANTASTIC AFTERNOON WITH CLEAR SKIES,
LIGHT WINDS, AND TEMPERATURES REACHING MID 70S INLAND WITH 60S
ALONG THE COAST. HIGH CLOUDS WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS ARE THE FIRST SIGNAL OF AN APPROACHING
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN. IN THE MEANTIME, THEY SHOULD MAKE
FOR A NICE SUNSET TO END A PLEASANT DAY.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1232 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2025
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY, ALBEIT WITH MORE HIGH CLOUD
COVER SIGNALING THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS
SUPPORTED BY A TROUGH IN THE UPPER LEVELS THAT WILL PUSH OUT THE
RIDGE AND FLIP THE PATTERN FROM WARM AND DRY TO COOL AND WET BY
SATURDAY. THE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, BUT THERE HAS BEEN SOME CHANGES IN THE DETAILS. IT
NOW LOOKS LIKE THE RAIN WILL ARRIVE LATER, AND WON'T BE AS WET AS
WE THOUGHT A COUPLE DAYS AGO. THE CURRENT FORECAST NOW HAS RAIN
REACHING THE NORTH BAY VERY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING RATHER THAN
LATE FRIDAY. THE TOTAL RAIN SHOULD BE AROUND 1/4-1/2" IN THE NORTH
BAY, WITH UP TO 1/10" ACROSS THE BAY AREA, AND A FEW HUNDREDTHS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. WHILE THE SYSTEM IS USHERING IN A
ROBUST PRE-FRONTAL TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME IN THE SHAPE OF AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER, IT WILL MOVE VERY QUICKLY FROM N-S ON SATURDAY.
ENSEMBLES AGREE THAT THE PW WILL REACH BETWEEN 200-250% OF
NORMAL, BUT IN A THIN RIBBON THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE BAY AREA
AND CENTRAL COAST FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
WHILE SHORT LIVED, MOST OF THE RAIN WILL COME FROM THIS FIRST
PUSH. SOME OF THE SHOWERS COULD BE HEAVY, BUT SHOULD BE BRIEF.
AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THERE MAY BE A 12 HOUR BREAK
BEFORE A WEAKER PUSH OF POSTFRONTAL SHOWERS ARRIVES SUNDAY AND
LINGERS INTO MONDAY. OUTSIDE OF RAIN, TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
THIS WEEKEND WITH MOST AREAS STUCK IN THE 60S. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME GUSTY SW-W WINDS. WITH HIGH MOISTURE AND A FAST MOVING FRONT,
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT UNLIKELY. THE CHANCES ARE MAINLY
HELD BACK DUE TO PEDESTRIAN LAPSE RATES OF 4-6 C/KM. THE SKIES
SHOULD START TO CLEAR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR SLOWLY FILTERS
IN. THE PW WILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK, BUT WITH
RIDGING ALOFT THE CHANCE FOR RAIN BASICALLY GOES TO ZERO BY
TUESDAY. THIS RIDGING LOOKS TO HAVE SOME STAYING POWER, AND
SHOULD KEEP DRY CONDITIONS AROUND THROUGH HALLOWEEN.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 941 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2025
CURRENTLY VFR AT THE TERMINALS. A NUANCED TAF PERIOD IS ON TAP AS
THE PATTERN SHIFTS FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW TO UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDGING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR-MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT. WHILE THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR FOG AT STS DUE TO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A COMPRESSING MARINE
LAYER, HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN LOWERED CONFIDENCE ENOUGH TO REMOVE
IT FROM THE TAF.
VICINITY OF SFO...CURRENTLY VFR WITH WESTERLY FLOW. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE (65%) IN A CEILING ON THE CUSP OF MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING
TONIGHT WITH A LATE-MORNING CLEARING TIME. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...CURRENTLY VFR WITH DRAINAGE FLOW AT BOTH
TERMINALS. HIGH CONFIDENCE (80%) IN CEILINGS ON THE CUSP OF MVFR/IFR
DEVELOPING AT BOTH TERMINALS TONIGHT WITH A LATE-MORNING CLEARING.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 905 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2025
A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. ROUGH
SEAS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE INNER WATERS AND OUTER WATERS, BUILDING
TO BECOME VERY ROUGH IN THE OUTER WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. RAIN
SHOWERS RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 941 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2025
A MODERATE TO LONG PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL RESULT IN
BREAKING WAVES OF 12 TO 17 FEET, WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES UP TO 25
FEET IN FAVORED LOCATIONS, AND AN INCREASED RISK FOR SNEAKER WAVES
AND RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SNEAKER WAVES CAN
UNEXPECTEDLY RUN SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER UP THE BEACH THAN NORMAL,
INCLUDING OVER ROCKS AND JETTIES. RIP CURRENTS ARE TYPICALLY MORE
FREQUENT AND STRONGER IN THE VICINITY OF JETTIES, INLETS, AND
PIERS. SWIMMERS SHOULD ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD. REMAIN OUT OF
THE WATER TO AVOID HAZARDOUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS AND NEVER TURN
YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN!
SARMENT
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 3 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PT ARENA TO
PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...FLYNN
LONG TERM....FLYNN
AVIATION...SARMENT
MARINE...SARMENT
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