486
FXUS66 KMTR 231946
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1246 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1245 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2025
- NICE WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY
- BENEFICIAL RAIN ACROSS THE BAY AREA THIS WEEKEND
- LARGE SWELL WILL RETURN FRIDAY WITH HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1245 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2025
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
A SHORT WAVE RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND WILL BE THE
DOMINATE FEATURE THROUGH FRIDAY. THUS, COASTAL AREAS WILL WARM INTO
THE MID 60S WHILE INLAND AREAS REACH THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S BOTH
TODAY AND TOMORROW. LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN TO COASTAL AREAS
AND AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY WITH LOWER PROBABILITY OVER THE BAY AREA
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG
IN PLACES SUCH AS THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS AND AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY
REGION.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1245 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2025
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN BY A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING WASHINGTON AND BRITISH COLUMBIA BEFORE MOVING
INLAND ON SATURDAY. THUS, WE ARE EXPECTING THE FRONT TO MOVE IN LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND MORESO INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING
BENEFICIAL RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY WHERE GENERALLY 1/10"-1/4" WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH LESS THAN 1/10" ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. THE
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IN PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL
COAST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS COULD
SEE GENERALLY LESS THAN 1/10". ELSEWHERE, LESS THAN 0.05" IS
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. A SECONDARY FRONTAL IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON RESULTING IN A
LITTLE LESS THAN THE FIRST FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS AND LITTLE
TO NO RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
REMAIN LESS THAN 5% FOR BOTH SYSTEMS. POST FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH BAY, IN WAKE OF THE SECOND
FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. COOLER
CONDITIONS TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND WITH THEM
DROPPING UP TO 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON DRIER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO RETURN WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH. THINGS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH HALLOWEEN
WITH THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER SHOWING LIKELY ABOVE AVERAGE IN
THEIR 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2025
LOW CLOUDS /MVFR/ CONTINUE ALONG A SHALLOW COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALONG THE COASTLINE OF THE BAY AREA WITH AN INLAND INTRUSION TAKING
PLACE TO THE EAST BAY, OTHERWISE VALLEY FOG /LIFR-IFR/ CONTINUES TO
MIX OUT AND VFR PREVAILS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. VFR
WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ONGOING MIXING.
THE COOL FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COASTLINE REACHING THE
NORTH CENTRAL COAST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW CLOUDS
AND VALLEY FOG /LIFR-IFR/ RETURN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING, MIXING
OUT BY LATE MORNING.
VICINITY OF SFO...MVFR CEILING CONTINUES WITH A WEST WIND NEAR 10
KNOTS UNTIL 21Z THEN INCREASING WEST WIND WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS
FROM AFTERNOON TO MID EVENING. LOW CLOUDS /MVFR/ RETURN TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING, MIXING OUT 18Z FRIDAY.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON,
THEN A QUICKLY MOVING, SHALLOW COOL FRONT SWEEPS BY DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS /MVFR/ REDEVELOP IN THE EVENING MIXING
WITH FOG /LIFR-IFR/ DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS TO LINGERING COOL AIR DRAINAGE WINDS IN THE
SALINAS VALLEY SHIFTING OVER TO ONSHORE NEAR 10 KNOTS, POSSIBLY A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS WITH THE SHALLOW COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE, DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2025
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN WEAKEN BY LATE FRIDAY. AN ACTIVE, WET
WEATHER PATTERN REACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL PERIODICALLY
SEND FRONTAL SYSTEMS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE BAY AREA DURING THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. ROUGH SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS,
BECOMING VERY ROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THERE'S A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING AND LASTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LONG PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL ENTERS THE
WATERS FRIDAY, PEAKING BY SUNDAY.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PT ARENA TO
PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PT PINOS TO PT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PT PINOS
TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...RGASS
LONG TERM....RGASS
AVIATION...CANEPA
MARINE...CANEPA
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