758
FXUS66 KMTR 240009
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
509 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2025
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1245 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2025
- NICE WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY
- BENEFICIAL RAIN ACROSS THE BAY AREA THIS WEEKEND
- LARGE SWELL WILL RETURN FRIDAY WITH HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1245 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2025
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
A SHORT WAVE RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND WILL BE THE
DOMINATE FEATURE THROUGH FRIDAY. THUS, COASTAL AREAS WILL WARM INTO
THE MID 60S WHILE INLAND AREAS REACH THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S BOTH
TODAY AND TOMORROW. LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN TO COASTAL AREAS
AND AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY WITH LOWER PROBABILITY OVER THE BAY AREA
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG
IN PLACES SUCH AS THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS AND AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY
REGION.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1245 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2025
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN BY A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING WASHINGTON AND BRITISH COLUMBIA BEFORE MOVING
INLAND ON SATURDAY. THUS, WE ARE EXPECTING THE FRONT TO MOVE IN LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND MORESO INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING
BENEFICIAL RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY WHERE GENERALLY 1/10"-1/4" WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH LESS THAN 1/10" ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. THE
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IN PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL
COAST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS COULD
SEE GENERALLY LESS THAN 1/10". ELSEWHERE, LESS THAN 0.05" IS
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. A SECONDARY FRONTAL IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON RESULTING IN A
LITTLE LESS THAN THE FIRST FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS AND LITTLE
TO NO RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
REMAIN LESS THAN 5% FOR BOTH SYSTEMS. POST FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH BAY, IN WAKE OF THE SECOND
FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. COOLER
CONDITIONS TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND WITH THEM
DROPPING UP TO 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON DRIER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO RETURN WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH. THINGS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH HALLOWEEN
WITH THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER SHOWING LIKELY ABOVE AVERAGE IN
THEIR 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 508 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2025
CURRENTLY VFR AT ALL TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HAF. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN ALL TERMINALS DEVELOPING AN MVFR CEILING TONIGHT, WITH
IFR-LIFR (FOG) POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL PROBLEM AREAS OF APC, MRY,
SNS, AND STS.
VICINITY OF SFO...CURRENTLY VFR WITH WESTERLY FLOW. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE (65%) IN A CEILING ON THE CUSP OF MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING
TONIGHT WITH A LATE-MORNING CLEARING TIME. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...CURRENTLY VFR WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT
BOTH TERMINALS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE (60%) IN FOG DEVELOPING AT BOTH
TERMINALS TONIGHT WITH A LATE-MORNING CLEARING.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 508 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THEN
WEAKEN BY LATE FRIDAY. AN ACTIVE, WET WEATHER PATTERN REACHING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL PERIODICALLY SEND FRONTAL SYSTEMS AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE BAY AREA DURING THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ROUGH SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS, BECOMING VERY ROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. THERE'S A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS
BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LONG
PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL ENTERS THE WATERS FRIDAY, PEAKING BY
SUNDAY.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1254 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2025
A MODERATE TO LONG PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL RESULT IN
BREAKING WAVES OF 15 TO 20 FEET, WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES UP TO 25
FEET IN FAVORED LOCATIONS, AND AN INCREASED RISK FOR SNEAKER WAVES
AND RIP CURRENTS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SNEAKER
WAVES CAN UNEXPECTEDLY RUN SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER UP THE BEACH THAN
NORMAL, INCLUDING OVER ROCKS AND JETTIES. RIP CURRENTS ARE TYPICALLY
MORE FREQUENT AND STRONGER IN THE VICINITY OF JETTIES, INLETS, AND
PIERS. SWIMMERS SHOULD ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD. REMAIN OUT OF
THE WATER TO AVOID HAZARDOUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS AND NEVER TURN
YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN!
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 3 AM PDT FRIDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PT PINOS TO PT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PT PINOS
TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...RGASS
LONG TERM....RGASS
AVIATION...SARMENT
MARINE...CANEPA
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