723
FXUS66 KMTR 240406
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
906 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1245 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2025
- NICE WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY
- BENEFICIAL RAIN ACROSS THE BAY AREA THIS WEEKEND
- LARGE SWELL WILL RETURN FRIDAY WITH HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 906 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2025
STRATUS IS CREEPING BACK IN ALONG THE COASTLINE WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND VALLEYS AND ALONG THE COASTLINE. THE NIGHTS
ARE GETTING CHILLIER AS WE HEAD INTO THE FALL AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. IN THE LARGER SCALE, THE FIRST
RAIN SHOWERS FROM THIS WEEKENDS SYSTEM ARE STARTING TO MOVE OFFSHORE
OF COASTAL WASHINGTON. THIS SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARDS ON
FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS REACHING THE BAY AREA BY SATURDAY. IMPACTS TO
THE BAY AREA WILL BE MINIMAL OVERALL, WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN WELL
TO OUR NORTH, BUT MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING (THINK: PONDING ON
ROADWAYS) IS POSSIBLE. RESIDENTS SHOULD USE THIS AS A GOOD
OPPORTUNITY TO MAKE SURE GUTTERS AND DRAINS ARE CLEAR TO PREPARE
AS WE HEAD INTO THE RAINY SEASON.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1245 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2025
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
A SHORT WAVE RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND WILL BE THE
DOMINATE FEATURE THROUGH FRIDAY. THUS, COASTAL AREAS WILL WARM INTO
THE MID 60S WHILE INLAND AREAS REACH THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S BOTH
TODAY AND TOMORROW. LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN TO COASTAL AREAS
AND AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY WITH LOWER PROBABILITY OVER THE BAY AREA
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG
IN PLACES SUCH AS THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS AND AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY
REGION.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1245 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2025
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN BY A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING WASHINGTON AND BRITISH COLUMBIA BEFORE MOVING
INLAND ON SATURDAY. THUS, WE ARE EXPECTING THE FRONT TO MOVE IN LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND MORESO INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING
BENEFICIAL RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY WHERE GENERALLY 1/10"-1/4" WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH LESS THAN 1/10" ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. THE
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IN PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL
COAST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS COULD
SEE GENERALLY LESS THAN 1/10". ELSEWHERE, LESS THAN 0.05" IS
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. A SECONDARY FRONTAL IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON RESULTING IN A
LITTLE LESS THAN THE FIRST FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS AND LITTLE
TO NO RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
REMAIN LESS THAN 5% FOR BOTH SYSTEMS. POST FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH BAY, IN WAKE OF THE SECOND
FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. COOLER
CONDITIONS TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND WITH THEM
DROPPING UP TO 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON DRIER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO RETURN WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH. THINGS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH HALLOWEEN
WITH THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER SHOWING LIKELY ABOVE AVERAGE IN
THEIR 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 852 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2025
CURRENTLY A MIXED BAG OF IFR-VFR AT THE TERMINALS. MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN ALL TERMINALS DEVELOPING AN MVFR CEILING TONIGHT, WITH
IFR-LIFR (FOG) POSSIBLE FOR APC, MRY, SNS, AND STS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
STREAM IN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FROM THE SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING
RAIN CHANCES BY THE NEXT TAF PERIOD FOR THE NORTH BAY.
VICINITY OF SFO...CURRENTLY VFR WITH WESTERLY FLOW. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE (65%) IN A CEILING ON THE CUSP OF MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING
TONIGHT WITH A LATE-MORNING CLEARING TIME. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR CEILING RETURNS TOWARDS THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...CURRENTLY IFR WITH WESTERLY FLOW AT BOTH
TERMINALS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE (60%) IN FOG DEVELOPING AT BOTH
TERMINALS TONIGHT. VFR IS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR
CEILINGS WILL DEVELOPING/APPROACHING TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 852 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2025
A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY WITH
ISOLATED STRONG GUSTS. ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE INNER
WATERS AND OUTER WATERS, BUILDING TO BECOME VERY ROUGH IN THE
OUTER WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS RETURN THIS
WEEKEND.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1254 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2025
A MODERATE TO LONG PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL RESULT IN
BREAKING WAVES OF 15 TO 20 FEET, WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES UP TO 25
FEET IN FAVORED LOCATIONS, AND AN INCREASED RISK FOR SNEAKER WAVES
AND RIP CURRENTS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SNEAKER
WAVES CAN UNEXPECTEDLY RUN SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER UP THE BEACH THAN
NORMAL, INCLUDING OVER ROCKS AND JETTIES. RIP CURRENTS ARE TYPICALLY
MORE FREQUENT AND STRONGER IN THE VICINITY OF JETTIES, INLETS, AND
PIERS. SWIMMERS SHOULD ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD. REMAIN OUT OF
THE WATER TO AVOID HAZARDOUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS AND NEVER TURN
YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN!
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 3 AM PDT FRIDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PT PINOS TO PT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PT PINOS
TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...RGASS
LONG TERM....RGASS
AVIATION...SARMENT
MARINE...SARMENT
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