424
FXUS66 KMTR 250444
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
944 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2025
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1252 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2025
- BENEFICIAL RAIN ACROSS THE BAY AREA ARRIVES SATURDAY
- LARGE SWELL HAS RETURNED WITH HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND
- WARMING AND DRYING TREND FOR NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1252 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2025
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
LOW CLOUDS HAVE MIXED OUT AND FOG HAS DISSIPATED AS OF THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW PASSING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS, INDICATIONS OF OUR
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS SUCH, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST WITH UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. THE WARMEST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST MAY TOP
OUT AROUND 80 DEGREES F, SUCH AS PINNACLES NATIONAL PARK.
TONIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AND
BAY AREA AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.
PREFRONTAL RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH MAIN
BAND MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH BAY BETWEEN 3 AM AND 7 AM, THE BAY
AREA BETWEEN 5 AM AND 9 AM, THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH BAY
BETWEEN 9 AM AND 1 PM, AND THEN THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL COAST
AFTER 1 PM. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE BENEFICIAL ACROSS THE NORTH BAY
WITH THE COASTAL RANGES PICKING UP BETWEEN 0.25"-0.50" WITH LESS
THAN 0.20" IN THE VALLEYS. LESS THAN 0.10" IN THE CITY OF SAN
FRANCISCO AND LITTLE TO NOTHING AS YOU HEAD SOUTHWARD AND INLAND.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1229 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2025
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
THERE LOOKS TO BE A DISTINCT BREAK SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE RAIN
RETURNS SUNDAY, THOUGH ONLY ABOUT HALF AS MUCH AS SATURDAY. THE
LIGHTNING THREAT IS MINUSCULE DUE MAINLY TO SHALLOW LAPSE RATES.
THE MOISTURE, SHEAR, AND TRIGGER (COLD FRONT) ARE ALL THERE
HOWEVER, SO IT'S STILL WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON CONVECTION FOR ANY
LOW- TOPPED ROTATING CELLS. COLDER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT,
WITH THE 850 TEMPERATURE DROPPING TO 7 OR 8C, WHICH IS SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THE 10TH AND 25TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
NOTHING CRAZY, BUT SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING WILL FEEL CHILLY AS A
RESULT. THE SURFACE WIND SPEED DOESN'T LOOK VERY HIGH WITH THIS
SYSTEM, BUT THE DIRECTION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO SW AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. WINDS WILL FLIP BACK TO NW AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
AFTER THE POST FRONTAL SHOWERS CLEAR UP MONDAY MORNING, PERIODS OF
ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK RIDGING WILL BRING DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL
CONDITIONS FOR THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK. HALLOWEEN STILL LOOKS
GOOD ON FRIDAY. THERE'S SOME INDICATION THAT THE NEXT SYSTEM COULD
ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND, BUT ROUGHLY 70% OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP A
RIDGING PATTERN.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 943 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2025
CURRENTLY VFR AT ALL TERMINALS (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HAF WHICH IS
LIFR) WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTH. WITH THE
DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
CEILINGS ON THE CUSP OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS RETURNING TO ALL TERMINALS
TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR THE NORTHERNMOST TERMINALS BY MID-
MORNING. VFR WILL BE INTERMITTENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH THE
PASSAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
VICINITY OF SFO...CURRENTLY VFR WITH WESTERLY FLOW. A CEILING ON THE
CUSP OF IFR/MVFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN SHORTLY AND IMPACT THE
TERMINAL THROUGH THE MORNING. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BACK TO BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BY MID-MORNING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...CURRENTLY IFR AND CALM AT BOTH TERMINALS.
IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH MID-MORNING WITH
MVFR CEILINGS AT LEAST INTERMITTENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 943 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2025
A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
STRONG GUSTS. ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE INNER WATERS AND
OUTER WATERS, BUILDING TO BECOME VERY ROUGH IN THE OUTER WATERS
OVER THE WEEKEND. RAIN SHOWERS RETURN TOMORROW AND CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY. SEAS ABATE MONDAY TO BECOME MODERATE TO ROUGH.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1052 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2025
A MODERATE TO LONG PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL IS BUILDING ACROSS
THE COAST, CAUSING BREAKING WAVES OF 15 TO 20 FEET, WITH THE
HIGHEST WAVES UP TO 25 FEET IN FAVORED LOCATIONS. THIS WILL CAUSE
AN INCREASED RISK FOR SNEAKER WAVES AND RIP CURRENTS THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. SNEAKER WAVES CAN UNEXPECTEDLY RUN SIGNIFICANTLY
FARTHER UP THE BEACH THAN NORMAL, INCLUDING OVER ROCKS AND
JETTIES. RIP CURRENTS ARE TYPICALLY MORE FREQUENT AND STRONGER IN
THE VICINITY OF JETTIES, INLETS, AND PIERS. SWIMMERS SHOULD ALWAYS
SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD. REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER TO AVOID HAZARDOUS
SWIMMING CONDITIONS AND NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN!
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR SF BAY N
OF BAY BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...RGASS
LONG TERM....FLYNN
AVIATION...SARMENT
MARINE...SARMENT
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