274
FXUS66 KMTR 250859
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
159 AM PDT SAT OCT 25 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1223 AM PDT SAT OCT 25 2025
- LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE BAY AREA THIS MORNING WITH ANOTHER ROUND
SUNDAY.
- LARGE SWELL IS CAUSING HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- WARMING AND DRYING TREND NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1223 AM PDT SAT OCT 25 2025
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS APPROACHING THE CWA. KMUX IS SHOWING
SOME LIGHT RETURNS MOVING INTO THE NORTH BAY, ALTHOUGH THERE'S NO
INDICATION THAT ANY MEASURABLE RAIN HAS REACHED THE GROUND YET.
THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS STILL A FEW HOURS AWAY AND
SHOULD REACH SANTA ROSA AROUND 6 AM. VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL START TO
MOVE SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE AROUND 8 OR 9 AM. THE MAIN THREAT
OF RAIN WILL END AROUND 2 PM. THE TOTAL ACCUMULATION TODAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM 1/10 - 1/4" ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AND A FEW HUNDREDTHS
TO 1/10" ACROSS THE REST OF THE BAY AREA. OVERCAST SKIES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL KEEP THE MORNING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND THE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1223 AM PDT SAT OCT 25 2025
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
THE MAIN COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL
BRING SIMILAR PRECIPITATION AS SATURDAY, THROUGH THE RAIN WILL
START AND END A FEW HOURS LATER. SKIES WILL START TO CLEAR SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH WARMER AND DRIER AIR IN STORE NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN SWITCHES TO WEAK RIDGING, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL TRIGGER WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW BY TUESDAY BRING WEAK OFFSHORE WIND, LOW HUMIDITY, AND CLEAR
SKIES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO INCREASE ABOVE NORMAL,
WITH INLAND AREAS REACHING THE 80S STARTING TUESDAY. THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN WILL START TO FLATTEN OUT BY WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY.
THE WEATHER WILL STAY PRETTY NICE, BUT THE MARINE LAYER WILL
LIKELY REFORM AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE. HALLOWEEN STILL
LOOKS PLEASANT WITH RIDGING LIKELY PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 943 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2025
CURRENTLY VFR AT ALL TERMINALS (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HAF WHICH IS
LIFR) WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTH. WITH THE
DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
CEILINGS ON THE CUSP OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS RETURNING TO ALL TERMINALS
TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR THE NORTHERNMOST TERMINALS BY MID-
MORNING. VFR WILL BE INTERMITTENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH THE
PASSAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
VICINITY OF SFO...CURRENTLY VFR WITH WESTERLY FLOW. A CEILING ON THE
CUSP OF IFR/MVFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN SHORTLY AND IMPACT THE
TERMINAL THROUGH THE MORNING. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BACK TO BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BY MID-MORNING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...CURRENTLY IFR AND CALM AT BOTH TERMINALS.
IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH MID-MORNING WITH
MVFR CEILINGS AT LEAST INTERMITTENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 943 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2025
A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
STRONG GUSTS. ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE INNER WATERS AND
OUTER WATERS, BUILDING TO BECOME VERY ROUGH IN THE OUTER WATERS
OVER THE WEEKEND. RAIN SHOWERS RETURN TOMORROW AND CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY. SEAS ABATE MONDAY TO BECOME MODERATE TO ROUGH.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1052 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2025
A MODERATE TO LONG PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL IS BUILDING ACROSS
THE COAST, CAUSING BREAKING WAVES OF 15 TO 20 FEET, WITH THE
HIGHEST WAVES UP TO 25 FEET IN FAVORED LOCATIONS. THIS WILL CAUSE
AN INCREASED RISK FOR SNEAKER WAVES AND RIP CURRENTS THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. SNEAKER WAVES CAN UNEXPECTEDLY RUN SIGNIFICANTLY
FARTHER UP THE BEACH THAN NORMAL, INCLUDING OVER ROCKS AND
JETTIES. RIP CURRENTS ARE TYPICALLY MORE FREQUENT AND STRONGER IN
THE VICINITY OF JETTIES, INLETS, AND PIERS. SWIMMERS SHOULD ALWAYS
SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD. REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER TO AVOID HAZARDOUS
SWIMMING CONDITIONS AND NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN!
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR SF BAY N OF
BAY BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...FLYNN
LONG TERM....FLYNN
AVIATION...SARMENT
MARINE...SARMENT
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