526
FXUS66 KMTR 251241
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
541 AM PDT SAT OCT 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1223 AM PDT SAT OCT 25 2025
- LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE BAY AREA THIS MORNING WITH ANOTHER ROUND
SUNDAY.
- LARGE SWELL IS CAUSING HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- WARMING AND DRYING TREND NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1223 AM PDT SAT OCT 25 2025
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS APPROACHING THE CWA. KMUX IS SHOWING
SOME LIGHT RETURNS MOVING INTO THE NORTH BAY, ALTHOUGH THERE'S NO
INDICATION THAT ANY MEASURABLE RAIN HAS REACHED THE GROUND YET.
THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS STILL A FEW HOURS AWAY AND
SHOULD REACH SANTA ROSA AROUND 6 AM. VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL START TO
MOVE SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE AROUND 8 OR 9 AM. THE MAIN THREAT
OF RAIN WILL END AROUND 2 PM. THE TOTAL ACCUMULATION TODAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM 1/10 - 1/4" ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AND A FEW HUNDREDTHS
TO 1/10" ACROSS THE REST OF THE BAY AREA. OVERCAST SKIES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL KEEP THE MORNING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND THE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1223 AM PDT SAT OCT 25 2025
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
THE MAIN COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL
BRING SIMILAR PRECIPITATION AS SATURDAY, THROUGH THE RAIN WILL
START AND END A FEW HOURS LATER. SKIES WILL START TO CLEAR SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH WARMER AND DRIER AIR IN STORE NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN SWITCHES TO WEAK RIDGING, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL TRIGGER WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW BY TUESDAY BRING WEAK OFFSHORE WIND, LOW HUMIDITY, AND CLEAR
SKIES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO INCREASE ABOVE NORMAL,
WITH INLAND AREAS REACHING THE 80S STARTING TUESDAY. THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN WILL START TO FLATTEN OUT BY WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY.
THE WEATHER WILL STAY PRETTY NICE, BUT THE MARINE LAYER WILL
LIKELY REFORM AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE. HALLOWEEN STILL
LOOKS PLEASANT WITH RIDGING LIKELY PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 540 AM PDT SAT OCT 25 2025
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH BAY ALONG A COLD FRONT.
THIS FRONT IS PROVIDING MVFR LEVEL CIGS AND HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT
MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS THAT TURN MODERATE AND SOUTHERLY AS THE FRONT
PASSES. MEANWHILE AREAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT'S INFLUENCE ARE STILL
SEEING LOWER IFR/LIFR CIGS. SHOWERS THIN OUT AND BECOME SPOTTIER AS
THE FRONT FOCUSES OVER THE SF BAY ITSELF. SHOWERS COMPLETELY THIN
OUT AS THE FRONT ARRIVES TO THE MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS BUT THE
MIXING ALONG THE FRONT LOOKS TO RAISE THE CIGS TO MVFR LEVELS IN THE
LATE MORNING AS THE FRONT PASSES. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS IN THE POST
FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WITH WINDS TURNING MORE WESTERLY AND BECOME
MODERATE TO BREEZY. WINDS REDUCE INTO THE EVENING, BECOMING MOSTLY
LIGHT.
VICINITY OF SFO...LIGHT SHOWERS ARE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WITH
MVFR CIGS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO LINGER
THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PASSES. WINDS TURN WESTERLY
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND CIGS SCATTER BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WEAKEN
INTO THE EARLY NIGHT AND TURN SOUTHERLY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE
NEXT BATCH OF RAIN APPROACHES.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...LIGHT WINDS AND LIFR CIGS LAST INTO THE
LATE MORNING. THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE BAY, WINDS INCREASE AND
CIGS RISE TO MVFR LEVELS. WINDS REDUCE AND CIGS SCATTER INTO THE
EVENING.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 540 AM PDT SAT OCT 25 2025
MODERATE TO BREEZY WINDS LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
NEXT WORK WEEK. ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND, BUT EASE INTO MONDAY. LIGHT
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS INTO THE MID TO LATE
MORNING, BEFORE SCATTERING AND BECOMING SPOTTY AS THEY APPROACH
THE SOUTHERN WATERS. ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAINS AFFECT THE NORTHERN
WATERS EARLY SUNDAY, BUT EXIT THAT AFTERNOON.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1052 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2025
A MODERATE TO LONG PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL IS BUILDING ACROSS
THE COAST, CAUSING BREAKING WAVES OF 15 TO 20 FEET, WITH THE
HIGHEST WAVES UP TO 25 FEET IN FAVORED LOCATIONS. THIS WILL CAUSE
AN INCREASED RISK FOR SNEAKER WAVES AND RIP CURRENTS THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. SNEAKER WAVES CAN UNEXPECTEDLY RUN SIGNIFICANTLY
FARTHER UP THE BEACH THAN NORMAL, INCLUDING OVER ROCKS AND
JETTIES. RIP CURRENTS ARE TYPICALLY MORE FREQUENT AND STRONGER IN
THE VICINITY OF JETTIES, INLETS, AND PIERS. SWIMMERS SHOULD ALWAYS
SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD. REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER TO AVOID HAZARDOUS
SWIMMING CONDITIONS AND NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN!
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SF BAY N
OF BAY BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...FLYNN
LONG TERM....FLYNN
AVIATION...MURDOCK
MARINE...MURDOCK
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