626
FXUS66 KMTR 251754
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1054 AM PDT SAT OCT 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION, BEACHES
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1223 AM PDT SAT OCT 25 2025
- LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE BAY AREA THIS MORNING WITH ANOTHER ROUND
SUNDAY.
- LARGE SWELL IS CAUSING HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- WARMING AND DRYING TREND NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 917 AM PDT SAT OCT 25 2025
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE NORTH BAY
THIS MORNING WITH AMOUNTS REACHING UP TO AROUND 0.50" IN THE COASTAL
RANGES OF SONOMA AND MARIN COUNTIES IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. GENERALLY
LESS 0.20" IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE CITY OF SAN
FRANCISCO EXPECTING GENERALLY AROUND OR LESS THAN 0.10". FOR THE
CENTRAL COAST, LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF
THE BAY AREA. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS
AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SAN FRANCISCO PENINSULA WHERE UP TO 1/3"
WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE 1.00" TO 1.35" PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ADVECTING INLAND. THUS, OROGRAPHIC LIFT IS COMING INTO PLAY!
RGASS
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1223 AM PDT SAT OCT 25 2025
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS APPROACHING THE CWA. KMUX IS SHOWING
SOME LIGHT RETURNS MOVING INTO THE NORTH BAY, ALTHOUGH THERE'S NO
INDICATION THAT ANY MEASURABLE RAIN HAS REACHED THE GROUND YET.
THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS STILL A FEW HOURS AWAY AND
SHOULD REACH SANTA ROSA AROUND 6 AM. VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL START TO
MOVE SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE AROUND 8 OR 9 AM. THE MAIN THREAT
OF RAIN WILL END AROUND 2 PM. THE TOTAL ACCUMULATION TODAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM 1/10 - 1/4" ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AND A FEW HUNDREDTHS
TO 1/10" ACROSS THE REST OF THE BAY AREA. OVERCAST SKIES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL KEEP THE MORNING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND THE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1223 AM PDT SAT OCT 25 2025
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
THE MAIN COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL
BRING SIMILAR PRECIPITATION AS SATURDAY, THROUGH THE RAIN WILL
START AND END A FEW HOURS LATER. SKIES WILL START TO CLEAR SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH WARMER AND DRIER AIR IN STORE NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN SWITCHES TO WEAK RIDGING, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL TRIGGER WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW BY TUESDAY BRING WEAK OFFSHORE WIND, LOW HUMIDITY, AND CLEAR
SKIES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO INCREASE ABOVE NORMAL,
WITH INLAND AREAS REACHING THE 80S STARTING TUESDAY. THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN WILL START TO FLATTEN OUT BY WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY.
THE WEATHER WILL STAY PRETTY NICE, BUT THE MARINE LAYER WILL
LIKELY REFORM AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE. HALLOWEEN STILL
LOOKS PLEASANT WITH RIDGING LIKELY PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1054 AM PDT SAT OCT 25 2025
MVFR CONDITIONS INCLUDING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN /LIFR-IFR/ WITH
A COOL FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW POST FRONTAL SHOWERS LINGER LATER TODAY
OTHERWISE LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG /LIFR-IFR/ TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING.
VICINITY OF SFO...MVFR WITH LIGHT RAIN THROUGH LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH A WIND SHIFT TO WESTERLY 21Z TODAY
THEN BECOMING MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND TONIGHT, INCREASING TO
10 TO 12 KNOTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR-IFR WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG A COOL
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. MVFR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
5 TO 10 KNOTS UP UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE THEN SHIFTING TO WESTERLY 5
TO 10 KNOTS AND DECREASING AND BECOMING MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 917 AM PDT SAT OCT 25 2025
MODERATE TO BREEZY WINDS LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
NEXT WORK WEEK. ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND, BUT EASE INTO MONDAY. LIGHT
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS INTO THE MID TO LATE
MORNING, BEFORE SCATTERING AND BECOMING SPOTTY AS THEY APPROACH
THE SOUTHERN WATERS. ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAINS AFFECT THE NORTHERN
WATERS EARLY SUNDAY, BUT EXIT THAT AFTERNOON.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1052 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2025
A MODERATE TO LONG PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL CAUSE BREAKING
WAVES OF 15 TO 20 FEET, WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES UP TO 25 FEET IN
FAVORED LOCATIONS. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASED RISK FOR SNEAKER
WAVES AND RIP CURRENTS THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SNEAKER WAVES
CAN UNEXPECTEDLY RUN SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER UP THE BEACH THAN
NORMAL, INCLUDING OVER ROCKS AND JETTIES. RIP CURRENTS ARE
TYPICALLY MORE FREQUENT AND STRONGER IN THE VICINITY OF JETTIES,
INLETS, AND PIERS. SWIMMERS SHOULD ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD.
REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER TO AVOID HAZARDOUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS AND
NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN!
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SF BAY N
OF BAY BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...FLYNN
LONG TERM....FLYNN
AVIATION...CANEPA
MARINE...CANEPA
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