136
FXUS66 KMTR 252104
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
204 PM PDT SAT OCT 25 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 203 PM PDT SAT OCT 25 2025
- LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH BAY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER
ROUND SUNDAY POTENTIALLY EXTENDING INTO THE BAY AREA
- LARGE SWELL IS CAUSING HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND
- WARMING AND DRYING TREND NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 203 PM PDT SAT OCT 25 2025
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
AS EXPECTED, THE NORTH BAY COASTAL RANGES AND INLAND HILLS/HIGHER
PEAKS PICKED UP THE MOST RAINFALL FROM TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WHERE ANYWHERE FROM 0.25" TO
0.75" WITH MOUNT TAMALPAIS PICKING UP 1.16". THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST WITH LITTLE TO
NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. THE
EXCEPTION BEING THE HILLS OF THE SAN FRANCISCO PENINSULA AND THE
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS WHERE UP TO 0.20" CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY MAY HAVE LINGERING POST
FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING. COOLER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING RANGING FROM THE MID 50S NEAR THE COAST TO UPPER 40S INLAND.
A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH BAY SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON BRINGING ABOUT HALF THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
TO THE REGION AS TODAY. THE BAY AREA AND SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS MAY
PICK UP JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. RAINFALL CHANCES GREATLY
DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 203 PM PDT SAT OCT 25 2025
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
DRY CONDITIONS RETURN BY MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WITH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING SEASONAL AVERAGES. TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 60S NEAR THE COAST TO
LOWER/MID 70S ACROSS THE INTERIOR UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
(AFTER ANY MORNING CLOUDS DISSIPATE). A MORE ROBUST WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WEAK OFFSHORE DEVELOPS WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REACHING ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THUS, LOW
HUMIDITY (ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN) AND CLEAR SKIES ARE
LIKELY TO PREVAIL. ONSHORE WINDS WILL RETURN BY THURSDAY BRINGING
PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN RETURNS TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1054 AM PDT SAT OCT 25 2025
MVFR CONDITIONS INCLUDING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN /LIFR-IFR/ WITH
A COOL FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW POST FRONTAL SHOWERS LINGER LATER TODAY
OTHERWISE LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG /LIFR-IFR/ TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING.
VICINITY OF SFO...MVFR WITH LIGHT RAIN THROUGH LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH A WIND SHIFT TO WESTERLY 21Z TODAY
THEN BECOMING MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND TONIGHT, INCREASING TO
10 TO 12 KNOTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR-IFR WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG A COOL
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. MVFR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
5 TO 10 KNOTS UP UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE THEN SHIFTING TO WESTERLY 5
TO 10 KNOTS AND DECREASING AND BECOMING MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 917 AM PDT SAT OCT 25 2025
MODERATE TO BREEZY WINDS LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
NEXT WORK WEEK. ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND, BUT EASE INTO MONDAY. LIGHT
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS INTO THE MID TO LATE
MORNING, BEFORE SCATTERING AND BECOMING SPOTTY AS THEY APPROACH
THE SOUTHERN WATERS. ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAINS AFFECT THE NORTHERN
WATERS EARLY SUNDAY, BUT EXIT THAT AFTERNOON.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1052 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2025
A MODERATE TO LONG PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL CAUSE BREAKING
WAVES OF 15 TO 20 FEET, WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES UP TO 25 FEET IN
FAVORED LOCATIONS. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASED RISK FOR SNEAKER
WAVES AND RIP CURRENTS THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SNEAKER WAVES
CAN UNEXPECTEDLY RUN SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER UP THE BEACH THAN
NORMAL, INCLUDING OVER ROCKS AND JETTIES. RIP CURRENTS ARE
TYPICALLY MORE FREQUENT AND STRONGER IN THE VICINITY OF JETTIES,
INLETS, AND PIERS. SWIMMERS SHOULD ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD.
REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER TO AVOID HAZARDOUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS AND
NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN!
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR SF BAY N
OF BAY BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM PDT SUNDAY
FOR PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PT PINOS
TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...RGASS
LONG TERM....RGASS
AVIATION...CANEPA
MARINE...CANEPA
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