811
FXUS66 KMTR 260359
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
859 PM PDT SAT OCT 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 702 PM PDT SAT OCT 25 2025
- HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
- BENEFICIAL RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
- WARMING AND DRYING TREND MONDAY
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 702 PM PDT SAT OCT 25 2025
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH 0.10" OR LESS BEING
RECORDED IN THE LAST 6 HOURS. THE PRIMARY HAZARD CONTINUES TO BE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS AT PACIFIC COAST BEACHES. LARGE BREAKING
WAVES AND AN INCREASED RISK FOR SNEAKER WAVES AND RIP CURRENTS
CONTINUES THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. STAY OFF OF WATERSIDE
INFRASTRUCTURE, REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER, AND NEVER TURN YOUR BACK
ON THE OCEAN! NO UPDATES TO THE FORECAST NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.
SARMENT
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 203 PM PDT SAT OCT 25 2025
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
AS EXPECTED, THE NORTH BAY COASTAL RANGES AND INLAND HILLS/HIGHER
PEAKS PICKED UP THE MOST RAINFALL FROM TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WHERE ANYWHERE FROM 0.25" TO
0.75" WITH MOUNT TAMALPAIS PICKING UP 1.16". THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST WITH LITTLE TO
NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. THE
EXCEPTION BEING THE HILLS OF THE SAN FRANCISCO PENINSULA AND THE
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS WHERE UP TO 0.20" CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY MAY HAVE LINGERING POST
FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING. COOLER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING RANGING FROM THE MID 50S NEAR THE COAST TO UPPER 40S INLAND.
A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH BAY SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON BRINGING ABOUT HALF THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
TO THE REGION AS TODAY. THE BAY AREA AND SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS MAY
PICK UP JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. RAINFALL CHANCES GREATLY
DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 203 PM PDT SAT OCT 25 2025
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
DRY CONDITIONS RETURN BY MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WITH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING SEASONAL AVERAGES. TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 60S NEAR THE COAST TO
LOWER/MID 70S ACROSS THE INTERIOR UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
(AFTER ANY MORNING CLOUDS DISSIPATE). A MORE ROBUST WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WEAK OFFSHORE DEVELOPS WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REACHING ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THUS, LOW
HUMIDITY (ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN) AND CLEAR SKIES ARE
LIKELY TO PREVAIL. ONSHORE WINDS WILL RETURN BY THURSDAY BRINGING
PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN RETURNS TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 858 PM PDT SAT OCT 25 2025
CURRENTLY A MIXED BAG OF IFR-VFR AT THE TERMINALS. ANOTHER TRANSIENT
TAF PERIOD AHEAD AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH AND A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST OF THE BAY AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL HELP KICK OFF SHOWERS IN THE LATE-MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
TIMEFRAME WITH RAIN SHOWERS ONLY EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERNMOST
TERMINALS WITH DRIZZLE A MORE LIKELY RESULT FOR THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THIS TIME BEFORE
RETURNING TO ONSHORE FLOW. CEILINGS WILL EBB AND FLOW GENERALLY IN
THE MVFR TO LOW-END VFR RANGE.
VICINITY OF SFO...CURRENTLY VFR WITH WESTERLY FLOW. VFR IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A LOW-END VFR CEILING. RAIN SHOWERS RETURN AS
EARLY AS LATE-MORNING WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BACK THROUGH THE NIGHT TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY BY MID-MORNING, INCREASING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON TO BECOME GUSTY. ONSHORE WINDS RETURN BY TOMORROW EVENING
WITH CEILINGS LIKELY IN FLUX BETWEEN MVFR AND LOW-END VFR.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...CURRENTLY IFR WITH EASTERLY FLOW AT MRY AND
VFR AND CALM AT SNS. SNS IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO IFR,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH TO FURTHER DETERIORATE TO LIFR IF FOG IN
THE MONTEREY BAY EXPANDS. LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY LATE-
MORNING WITH CEILINGS LIKELY FLUXING BETWEEN MVFR AND LOW-END VFR.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 858 PM PDT SAT OCT 25 2025
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. A MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHERLY BREEZE WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. VERY ROUGH
SEAS FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND ROUGH SEAS FOR THE INNER WATERS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY, SEAS WILL SLOWLY START TO ABATE
MONDAY TO BECOME ROUGH TO MODERATE RESPECTFULLY BY TUESDAY.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 702 PM PDT SAT OCT 25 2025
A MODERATE TO LONG PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING LARGE BREAKING WAVES AND AN INCREASED RISK FOR SNEAKER
WAVES AND RIP CURRENTS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SNEAKER WAVES CAN
UNEXPECTEDLY RUN SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER UP THE BEACH THAN NORMAL,
INCLUDING OVER ROCKS AND JETTIES. RIP CURRENTS ARE TYPICALLY MORE
FREQUENT AND STRONGER IN THE VICINITY OF JETTIES, INLETS, AND
PIERS. SWIMMERS SHOULD ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD. REMAIN OUT OF
THE WATER TO AVOID HAZARDOUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS AND NEVER TURN
YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN!
SARMENT
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR SF BAY N
OF BAY BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PT REYES TO
PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PT PINOS
TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...RGASS
LONG TERM....RGASS
AVIATION...SARMENT
MARINE...SARMENT
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