779
FXUS66 KMTR 260924
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
224 AM PDT SUN OCT 26 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 102 AM PDT SUN OCT 26 2025
- HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY
- A SECOND ROUND OF BENEFICIAL RAIN ACROSS THE BAY AREA TODAY
- WARMING AND DRYING TREND STARTS MONDAY
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 102 AM PDT SUN OCT 26 2025
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
THE NEXT BAND OF RAIN IS JUST NORTH OF SONOMA COUNTY, BUT IT'S NOT
MOVING SOUTH. A BAROCLINIC LEAF OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA INDICATES A NEW SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORMING.
THIS CYCLOGENESIS IS SUPPORTED BY DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN THE RIGHT
REAR QUADRANT OF A 160 KT JET STREAK. THE ASSOCIATED WIND FIELD
WILL CAUSE THE BOUNDARY TO TRANSITION TO A WARM FRONT, AND THERE
ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT IS ALREADY HAPPENING. THE TEMPERATURE
HAS INCREASED AT UKIAH OVER THE LAST HOUR, DESPITE THE FACT THAT
IT'S THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT. THIS COMPLICATES THE FORECAST AS THE
WARM FRONT WANTS TO MOVE NORTH WHILE THE PARENT LOW MOVES EAST.
THE LOW WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN THE LATE AFTERNOON, DRAGGING THE
FINAL COLD FRONT ACROSS THE BAY AREA. SOME STRONG WIND AND LIGHT
RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE PREFRONTAL REGION, WITH THE IMPACTS
FOCUSED MAINLY IN THE NORTH BAY. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY QUICKLY CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE EVENING.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 102 AM PDT SUN OCT 26 2025
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
REALLY NICE WEATHER THIS WEEK! THE MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN
DISRUPTED BY THE FROPA ON SUNDAY, AND MONDAY WILL START WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES. THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE
WILL QUICKLY CLIMB FROM 7C TO AROUND 17C BY TUESDAY AS A RIDGE
BUILDS ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
70S AND LOW 80S INLAND. WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS WILL HELP BRING SOME
OF THIS HEAT ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST, WHERE IT SHOULD BE
FANTASTIC WEATHER TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY. COASTAL TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S, WITH NO CLOUDS, AND A LIGHT
BREEZE. A SHALLOW TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY, FLATTENING THE RIDGE. THIS WON'T HAVE A DRASTIC EFFECT
ON OUR WEATHER, OTHER THAN DEEPENING THE MARINE LAYER AND BRINGING
SOME CLOUDS BACK TO THE REGION. RIDGING WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH WARM, DRY WEATHER PREVAILING. HALLOWEEN LOOKS GREAT
WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND NO REAL CHANCE FOR RAIN.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 858 PM PDT SAT OCT 25 2025
CURRENTLY A MIXED BAG OF IFR-VFR AT THE TERMINALS. ANOTHER TRANSIENT
TAF PERIOD AHEAD AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH AND A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST OF THE BAY AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL HELP KICK OFF SHOWERS IN THE LATE-MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
TIMEFRAME WITH RAIN SHOWERS ONLY EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERNMOST
TERMINALS WITH DRIZZLE A MORE LIKELY RESULT FOR THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THIS TIME BEFORE
RETURNING TO ONSHORE FLOW. CEILINGS WILL EBB AND FLOW GENERALLY IN
THE MVFR TO LOW-END VFR RANGE.
VICINITY OF SFO...CURRENTLY VFR WITH WESTERLY FLOW. VFR IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A LOW-END VFR CEILING. RAIN SHOWERS RETURN AS
EARLY AS LATE-MORNING WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BACK THROUGH THE NIGHT TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY BY MID-MORNING, INCREASING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON TO BECOME GUSTY. ONSHORE WINDS RETURN BY TOMORROW EVENING
WITH CEILINGS LIKELY IN FLUX BETWEEN MVFR AND LOW-END VFR.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...CURRENTLY IFR WITH EASTERLY FLOW AT MRY AND
VFR AND CALM AT SNS. SNS IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO IFR,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH TO FURTHER DETERIORATE TO LIFR IF FOG IN
THE MONTEREY BAY EXPANDS. LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY LATE-
MORNING WITH CEILINGS LIKELY FLUXING BETWEEN MVFR AND LOW-END VFR.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 858 PM PDT SAT OCT 25 2025
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. A MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHERLY BREEZE WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. VERY ROUGH
SEAS FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND ROUGH SEAS FOR THE INNER WATERS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY, SEAS WILL SLOWLY START TO ABATE
MONDAY TO BECOME ROUGH TO MODERATE RESPECTFULLY BY TUESDAY.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 702 PM PDT SAT OCT 25 2025
A MODERATE TO LONG PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING LARGE BREAKING WAVES AND AN INCREASED RISK FOR SNEAKER
WAVES AND RIP CURRENTS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SNEAKER WAVES CAN
UNEXPECTEDLY RUN SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER UP THE BEACH THAN NORMAL,
INCLUDING OVER ROCKS AND JETTIES. RIP CURRENTS ARE TYPICALLY MORE
FREQUENT AND STRONGER IN THE VICINITY OF JETTIES, INLETS, AND
PIERS. SWIMMERS SHOULD ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD. REMAIN OUT OF
THE WATER TO AVOID HAZARDOUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS AND NEVER TURN
YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN!
SARMENT
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CAZ006-505-509-
529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM PDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR SF BAY N OF BAY BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PT ARENA TO
PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PT REYES
TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PT PINOS TO PT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...FLYNN
LONG TERM....FLYNN
AVIATION...SARMENT
MARINE...SARMENT
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