533
FXUS66 KMTR 261744
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1044 AM PDT SUN OCT 26 2025
..NEW UPDATE, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 934 AM PDT SUN OCT 26 2025
- HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY
- WINDS BECOMING GUSTY WITH BENEFICIAL RAIN ACROSS THE BAY AREA
TODAY
- WARMING AND DRYING TREND STARTS MONDAY
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1044 AM PDT SUN OCT 26 2025
IN ADDITION TO A FEW AREAS OF FOG AND INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE
NORTH BAY WITH SPOTTY LIGHT MEASURABLE RAIN IN NORTHERN SONOMA
COUNTY, WE'RE ALSO CLOSELY MONITORING AN EASTWARD MOVING SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (CENTERED 200 MILES NORTHWEST OF POINT REYES)
INCLUDING ITS WARM FRONT AND COLD FRONT. THE WARM AND COLD FRONTS
ATTACHED TO THE LOW ARE MOVING TOWARD NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AT 30-35
MPH.
ITS THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT AND QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS THE
COLD FRONT THAT'LL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS, WINDS AND AN
INCREASING PROBABILITY OF RAIN TO THE BAY AREA TODAY, AND DEPENDING
HOW WELL OR NOT THE FRONTS HOLD TOGETHER WHILE MOVING SOUTH AND
EAST WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH WIND AND MEASURABLE RAIN REACH THE
NORTH CENTRAL COAST LATER TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.
HOURLY SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS NEAR 1 MB (2 MB OR > PER HOUR IS
DEFINED AS FALLING RAPIDLY) AND SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 39 KNOTS HAVE
BEEN RECENTLY OBSERVED AT THE POINT ARENA BUOY, WHILE GENERALLY
WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGING IS OTHERWISE OCCURING FROM THE NORTH
CENTRAL COAST TO THE BAY AREA. CLEAR SKY ALLOWING DIURNAL WARMING
AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE NORTH BAY ARE BEGINNING TO WARM UP TO
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S, WHILE IT'S STILL IN THE UPPER 40S, 50S
TO NEAR 60 IN THE NORTH BAY. THE APPROACHING FRONTS AND UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION IS MOSTLY FOCUSED JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE TO ~ 850
MB LEVEL (~ 5000 FEET) WHILE A DRY AIR INTRUSION WILL OCCUR AT THE
700-500 MB LAYER GREATLY LIMITING IF NOT ENTIRELY PRECLUDING ANY
VERTICAL EXTENT OF CONVECTION. MOST IF NOT ALL PRECIPITATION WILL
BE STRATIFORM TYPE, LOCALLY ENHANCED BY WINDWARD UPSLOPING OR
DECREASED BY RAIN SHADOWING, DOWNSLOPING IN THE LEE OF THE COASTAL
HILLS AND MOUNTAINS TO THE VALLEYS. BECAUSE OF THE ELEVATED WATER
VAPOR TRANSPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM LIKE YESTERDAY'S RAIN WILL QUITE
LIKELY RESULT IN WIDELY VARYING RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA, THE VALLEYS RECEIVING THE LEAST RAINFALL (MINUS THE
NORTH BAY VALLEYS WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE UPSLOPING WINDS) THE
NEARBY HILLS/MOUNTAINS THE GREATEST RAIN AMOUNTS.
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS MAY RESULT IN WINDS GETTING
CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY LEVEL TODAY, HOWEVER FOR THE TIME BEING
WE'LL OPT TO WAIT ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY RATHER MESSAGING ON
SOCIAL MEDIA SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AS
NEEDED.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 102 AM PDT SUN OCT 26 2025
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
THE NEXT BAND OF RAIN IS JUST NORTH OF SONOMA COUNTY, BUT IT'S NOT
MOVING SOUTH. A BAROCLINIC LEAF OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA INDICATES A NEW SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORMING.
THIS CYCLOGENESIS IS SUPPORTED BY DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN THE RIGHT
REAR QUADRANT OF A 160 KT JET STREAK. THE ASSOCIATED WIND FIELD
WILL CAUSE THE BOUNDARY TO TRANSITION TO A WARM FRONT, AND THERE
ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT IS ALREADY HAPPENING. THE TEMPERATURE
HAS INCREASED AT UKIAH OVER THE LAST HOUR, DESPITE THE FACT THAT
IT'S THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT. THIS COMPLICATES THE FORECAST AS THE
WARM FRONT WANTS TO MOVE NORTH WHILE THE PARENT LOW MOVES EAST.
THE LOW WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN THE LATE AFTERNOON, DRAGGING THE
FINAL COLD FRONT ACROSS THE BAY AREA. SOME STRONG WIND AND LIGHT
RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE PREFRONTAL REGION, WITH THE IMPACTS
FOCUSED MAINLY IN THE NORTH BAY. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY QUICKLY CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE EVENING.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 102 AM PDT SUN OCT 26 2025
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
REALLY NICE WEATHER THIS WEEK! THE MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN
DISRUPTED BY THE FROPA ON SUNDAY, AND MONDAY WILL START WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES. THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE
WILL QUICKLY CLIMB FROM 7C TO AROUND 17C BY TUESDAY AS A RIDGE
BUILDS ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
70S AND LOW 80S INLAND. WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS WILL HELP BRING SOME
OF THIS HEAT ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST, WHERE IT SHOULD BE
FANTASTIC WEATHER TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY. COASTAL TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S, WITH NO CLOUDS, AND A LIGHT
BREEZE. A SHALLOW TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY, FLATTENING THE RIDGE. THIS WON'T HAVE A DRASTIC EFFECT
ON OUR WEATHER, OTHER THAN DEEPENING THE MARINE LAYER AND BRINGING
SOME CLOUDS BACK TO THE REGION. RIDGING WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH WARM, DRY WEATHER PREVAILING. HALLOWEEN LOOKS GREAT
WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND NO REAL CHANCE FOR RAIN.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 516 AM PDT SUN OCT 26 2025
LIGHT WINDS AND MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE AFFECTING THE REGION.
SPOTTY LOWERS CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG ARE AFFECTING THE COAST, THE
MONTEREY BAY AND PORTIONS OF THE MORE INTERIOR VALLEYS. A FRONT IS
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH, BRINGING LIGHT SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS.
THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY, WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE EDGE OF THE FRONT. SHOWERS WILL BE THE
MOST ORGANIZED IN THE NORTH BAY AND AROUND THE SF BAY, BUT SHOWERS
SCATTER AS THEY HEAD FARTHER SOUTH. WINDS TURN WESTERLY IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT AS CIGS SCATTER. CLOUD COVER ERODES IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS LAST THROUGH THE MORNING. MID-
LEVEL AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE BUILDING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME BREEZY AND TURN MORE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT ARRIVES. LIGHT SHOWERS WITH SLIGHT REDUCTIONS
IN VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT PASSES OVER THE TERMINAL.
WINDS TURN WESTERLY AS THE FRONT AND IT'S SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER
EXIT. WINDS REDUCE INTO THE NIGHT AND LOOK TO TURN NORTHERLY INTO
EARLY MONDAY.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...LIFR CIGS AND POCKETS OF FOG LINGER INTO
THE MID MORNING BEFORE CIGS RISE SLIGHTLY AND FOG SCATTERS. EXPECT
VFR INTO THE AFTERNOONS WITH WINDS INCREASING SLIGHTLY. SHOWER
ACTIVITY ARRIVES IN THE EVENING ALONG THE FRONT, BUT SHOWERS WILL BE
SPOTTY. THE FRONT AND RAIN CHANCES EXIT INTO THE NIGHT WITH CLOUD
COVER CLEARING IN THE FRONT'S WAKE.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 934 AM PDT SUN OCT 26 2025
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENCOURAGE FRESH TO GALE BREEZES
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY. THE
MOST LIKELY REGION FOR GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE NEAR AND NORTH OF
POINT REYES. THIS WILL EQUATE TO HAZARDOUS SEAS WITH WITH STEEP
WAVES OF 10 TO 15 FEET. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION LATER TODAY, BRINGING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AND A WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT. WHILE NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL LARGELY DIMINISH THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, PERIODS OF 20 TO 25
KNOT WINDS WILL STILL TRANSLATE TO ROUGH TO HAZARDOUS SEAS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 702 PM PDT SAT OCT 25 2025
A MODERATE TO LONG PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING LARGE BREAKING WAVES AND AN INCREASED RISK FOR SNEAKER
WAVES AND RIP CURRENTS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SNEAKER WAVES CAN
UNEXPECTEDLY RUN SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER UP THE BEACH THAN NORMAL,
INCLUDING OVER ROCKS AND JETTIES. RIP CURRENTS ARE TYPICALLY MORE
FREQUENT AND STRONGER IN THE VICINITY OF JETTIES, INLETS, AND
PIERS. SWIMMERS SHOULD ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD. REMAIN OUT OF
THE WATER TO AVOID HAZARDOUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS AND NEVER TURN
YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN!
SARMENT
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CAZ006-505-509-
529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR SF BAY N OF
BAY BRIDGE.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM PDT TUESDAY
FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
UPDATE...CANEPA
SHORT TERM...FLYNN
LONG TERM....FLYNN
AVIATION...MURDOCK
MARINE...BAIN
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