178
FXUS66 KMTR 261834 AAB
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1134 AM PDT SUN OCT 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION, BEACHES
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 934 AM PDT SUN OCT 26 2025
- HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY
- WINDS BECOMING GUSTY WITH BENEFICIAL RAIN ACROSS THE BAY AREA
TODAY
- WARMING AND DRYING TREND STARTS MONDAY
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1044 AM PDT SUN OCT 26 2025
IN ADDITION TO A FEW AREAS OF FOG AND INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE
NORTH BAY WITH SPOTTY LIGHT MEASURABLE RAIN IN NORTHERN SONOMA
COUNTY, WE'RE ALSO CLOSELY MONITORING AN EASTWARD MOVING SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (CENTERED 200 MILES NORTHWEST OF POINT REYES)
INCLUDING ITS WARM FRONT AND COLD FRONT. THE WARM AND COLD FRONTS
ATTACHED TO THE LOW ARE MOVING TOWARD NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AT 30-35
MPH.
ITS THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT AND QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS THE
COLD FRONT THAT'LL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS, WINDS AND AN
INCREASING PROBABILITY OF RAIN TO THE BAY AREA TODAY, AND DEPENDING
HOW WELL OR NOT THE FRONTS HOLD TOGETHER WHILE MOVING SOUTH AND
EAST WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH WIND AND MEASURABLE RAIN REACH THE
NORTH CENTRAL COAST LATER TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.
HOURLY SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS NEAR 1 MB (2 MB OR > PER HOUR IS
DEFINED AS FALLING RAPIDLY) AND SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 39 KNOTS HAVE
BEEN RECENTLY OBSERVED AT THE POINT ARENA BUOY, WHILE GENERALLY
WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGING IS OTHERWISE OCCURING FROM THE NORTH
CENTRAL COAST TO THE BAY AREA. CLEAR SKY ALLOWING DIURNAL WARMING
AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE NORTH BAY ARE BEGINNING TO WARM UP TO
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S, WHILE IT'S STILL IN THE UPPER 40S, 50S
TO NEAR 60 IN THE NORTH BAY. THE APPROACHING FRONTS AND UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION IS MOSTLY FOCUSED JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE TO ~ 850
MB LEVEL (~ 5000 FEET) WHILE A DRY AIR INTRUSION WILL OCCUR AT THE
700-500 MB LAYER GREATLY LIMITING IF NOT ENTIRELY PRECLUDING ANY
VERTICAL EXTENT OF CONVECTION. MOST IF NOT ALL PRECIPITATION WILL
BE STRATIFORM TYPE, LOCALLY ENHANCED BY WINDWARD UPSLOPING OR
DECREASED BY RAIN SHADOWING, DOWNSLOPING IN THE LEE OF THE COASTAL
HILLS AND MOUNTAINS TO THE VALLEYS. BECAUSE OF THE ELEVATED WATER
VAPOR TRANSPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM LIKE YESTERDAY'S RAIN WILL QUITE
LIKELY RESULT IN WIDELY VARYING RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA, THE VALLEYS RECEIVING THE LEAST RAINFALL (MINUS THE
NORTH BAY VALLEYS WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE UPSLOPING WINDS) THE
NEARBY HILLS/MOUNTAINS THE GREATEST RAIN AMOUNTS.
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS MAY RESULT IN WINDS GETTING
CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY LEVEL TODAY, HOWEVER FOR THE TIME BEING
WE'LL OPT TO WAIT ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY RATHER MESSAGING ON
SOCIAL MEDIA SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AS
NEEDED.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 102 AM PDT SUN OCT 26 2025
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
THE NEXT BAND OF RAIN IS JUST NORTH OF SONOMA COUNTY, BUT IT'S NOT
MOVING SOUTH. A BAROCLINIC LEAF OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA INDICATES A NEW SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORMING.
THIS CYCLOGENESIS IS SUPPORTED BY DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN THE RIGHT
REAR QUADRANT OF A 160 KT JET STREAK. THE ASSOCIATED WIND FIELD
WILL CAUSE THE BOUNDARY TO TRANSITION TO A WARM FRONT, AND THERE
ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT IS ALREADY HAPPENING. THE TEMPERATURE
HAS INCREASED AT UKIAH OVER THE LAST HOUR, DESPITE THE FACT THAT
IT'S THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT. THIS COMPLICATES THE FORECAST AS THE
WARM FRONT WANTS TO MOVE NORTH WHILE THE PARENT LOW MOVES EAST.
THE LOW WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN THE LATE AFTERNOON, DRAGGING THE
FINAL COLD FRONT ACROSS THE BAY AREA. SOME STRONG WIND AND LIGHT
RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE PREFRONTAL REGION, WITH THE IMPACTS
FOCUSED MAINLY IN THE NORTH BAY. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY QUICKLY CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE EVENING.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 102 AM PDT SUN OCT 26 2025
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
REALLY NICE WEATHER THIS WEEK! THE MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN
DISRUPTED BY THE FROPA ON SUNDAY, AND MONDAY WILL START WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES. THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE
WILL QUICKLY CLIMB FROM 7C TO AROUND 17C BY TUESDAY AS A RIDGE
BUILDS ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
70S AND LOW 80S INLAND. WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS WILL HELP BRING SOME
OF THIS HEAT ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST, WHERE IT SHOULD BE
FANTASTIC WEATHER TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY. COASTAL TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S, WITH NO CLOUDS, AND A LIGHT
BREEZE. A SHALLOW TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY, FLATTENING THE RIDGE. THIS WON'T HAVE A DRASTIC EFFECT
ON OUR WEATHER, OTHER THAN DEEPENING THE MARINE LAYER AND BRINGING
SOME CLOUDS BACK TO THE REGION. RIDGING WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH WARM, DRY WEATHER PREVAILING. HALLOWEEN LOOKS GREAT
WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND NO REAL CHANCE FOR RAIN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM PDT SUN OCT 26 2025
INTERMITTENT POOR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING DUE TO CIGS AND SHRA. A COMPACT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
FEATURE WILL INDUCE LARGELY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW AT MOST TERMINALS. GUSTS AS GREAT AS 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
FORECAST, THOUGH THERE'S AROUND A 5-10% CHANCE FOR GUSTS CLOSER TO
30 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. SHRA WILL BE
CAPABLE OF LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITY INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY FOR A
2-4 HOUR WINDOW AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON. FROPA,
ANTICIPATED LARGELY BETWEEN 02-04 UTC, WILL SIGNAL THE END TO THE
SHRA POTENTIAL AND ALSO BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. AT
THIS TIME, GUSTS STILL APPEAR THAT THEY'LL PEAK AROUND 25 KNOTS,
HOWEVER, LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS MAY SUPPORT GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 30
KNOTS. THE POST-FRONTAL CEILING POTENTIAL IS GREATEST AT NORTH AND
EAST BAY TERMINALS LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
SITES SUCH AS KSTS AND KAPC STAND THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR CEILINGS
DIPPING BELOW FL025, WITH A NON-ZERO RISK FOR IFR TO LIFR
VISIBILITY AS WELL. DRY AIR SHOULD WHISK AWAY ANY LOW CLOUDS/BR/FG
BY 18 UTC MONDAY, BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.
VICINITY OF SFO...CURRENTLY VFR WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS. CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH WIND GUSTS
POTENTIALLY FORCING "SOUTH PLAN" OPERATIONS. MVFR CEILINGS (AND
LOSS OF VAPS), S'LY GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS AND A 15-25 KNOT
CROSSWIND (28L/28R) ON WET RUNWAYS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO IMPACT THE
EARLY AFTERNOON PUSH (AROUND 2100 UTC). FROPA NEAR 00 UTC SHOULD
SHIFT WINDS SUCH THAT A WEST PLAN WOULD BE FAVORED THOUGH A 15 TO
25 KNOT CROSSWIND MAY STILL EXIST ON 01L/01R. WINDS SHOULD EASE
TOWARD 03 UTC WITH MORE FAVORABLE FLYING CONDITIONS FOR THE
EVENING ARRIVALS, HOWEVER, INTERMITTENT CIGS AT OR BELOW FL040
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED. THERE'S AROUND A 10% CHANCE FOR MVFR
CEILINGS THROUGH MID-MORNING MONDAY, WITH CIGS LIFTING AND
SCATTERING THROUGH THE DAY.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...LOSS OF VAPS ANTICIPATED AROUND 21 UTC DUE
TO CIGS AND SOUTH WINDS MAY ENCOURAGE S. PLAN OPS. LOW CONFIDENCE
IN A RETURN TO VAPS AFTER 00 UTC WITH CIGS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR CURRENTLY, WITH MVFR ACCOMPANYING
SHRA LATER TODAY. LARGELY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AS A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH A WINDSHIFT TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST IN ITS WAKE. SHRA INVOF KMRY AND KSNS TO RESULT IN
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS (AND POTENTIALLY VISIBILITY) THROUGH 04
UTC. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAF AFTER 04 UTC AS SOME MODEL
PROJECTIONS SUGGEST MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AT KMRY. TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL INCLUSION AT SUBSEQUENT TAF UPDATES.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 934 AM PDT SUN OCT 26 2025
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENCOURAGE FRESH TO GALE BREEZES
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY. THE
MOST LIKELY REGION FOR GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE NEAR AND NORTH OF
POINT REYES. THIS WILL EQUATE TO HAZARDOUS SEAS WITH WITH STEEP
WAVES OF 10 TO 15 FEET. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION LATER TODAY, BRINGING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AND A WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT. WHILE NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL LARGELY DIMINISH THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, PERIODS OF 20 TO 25
KNOT WINDS WILL STILL TRANSLATE TO ROUGH TO HAZARDOUS SEAS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1130 AM PDT SUN OCT 26 2025
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LARGE BREAKING WAVES
AND AN INCREASED RISK FOR SNEAKER WAVES AND RIP CURRENTS THROUGH
TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR WEST TO NORTHWEST FACING BEACHES. BREAKING
WAVES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN 15 AND 20 FEET, WITH MODERATE
TO STEEP BEACHES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE BREAKING WAVES IN
EXCESS OF 25 FEET. SNEAKER WAVES CAN UNEXPECTEDLY RUN
SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER UP THE BEACH THAN NORMAL, INCLUDING OVER
ROCKS AND JETTIES. RIP CURRENTS ARE TYPICALLY MORE FREQUENT AND
STRONGER IN THE VICINITY OF JETTIES, INLETS, AND PIERS. SWIMMERS
SHOULD ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD. REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER TO
AVOID HAZARDOUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS AND NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON
THE OCEAN!
BAIN/SARMENT
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CAZ006-505-509-
529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR SF BAY N OF
BAY BRIDGE.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM PDT TUESDAY
FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...FLYNN
LONG TERM....FLYNN
AVIATION...BAIN
MARINE...BAIN
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