798
FXUS66 KMTR 262035
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
135 PM PDT SUN OCT 26 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 934 AM PDT SUN OCT 26 2025
- HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY
- WINDS BECOMING GUSTY WITH BENEFICIAL RAIN ACROSS THE BAY AREA
TODAY
- WARMING AND DRYING TREND STARTS MONDAY
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 135 PM PDT SUN OCT 26 2025 (THIS EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY)
WE'RE CLOSELY MONITORING AN EASTWARD MOVING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NEARING FORT BRAGG, INCLUDING MONITORING THE WARM FRONT
AND COLD FRONTS ATTACHED TO THE LOW. IT'S THE PASSAGE OF THE
WARM FRONT AND QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS THE COLD FRONT THAT'LL
CONTINUE TO BRING INCREASING CLOUDS, WINDS AND AN INCREASING
PROBABILITY OF RAIN TO THE BAY AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AND
DEPENDING HOW WELL OR NOT THE FRONTS HOLD TOGETHER WHILE MOVING
SOUTH AND EAST WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH WIND AND MEASURABLE RAIN
REACH THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT. THE LOW EXITS TO OUR EAST TONIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER
RETURNING AND ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY STRENGTHENS BEGINNING TONIGHT
AND MONDAY.
THE APPROACHING FRONTS AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS MOSTLY FOCUSED
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE TO ~ 850 MB LEVEL (~ 5000 FEET) WHILE A DRY
AIR INTRUSION WILL OCCUR AT THE 700-500 MB LAYER GREATLY LIMITING
IF NOT ENTIRELY PRECLUDING ANY VERTICAL EXTENT OF CONVECTION. MOST
IF NOT ALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE STRATIFORM TYPE, LOCALLY ENHANCED
BY WINDWARD UPSLOPING OR DECREASED BY RAIN SHADOWING, DOWNSLOPING
IN THE LEE OF THE COASTAL HILLS AND MOUNTAINS TO THE VALLEYS.
BECAUSE OF THE ELEVATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM,
LIKE YESTERDAY'S RAIN, THIS WILL QUITE LIKELY RESULT IN WIDELY
VARYING RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE VALLEYS
WILL RECEIVE THE LEAST RAINFALL (MINUS THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS WHERE
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE UPSLOPING WINDS) AND THE HILLS/MOUNTAINS THE
GREATEST RAIN AMOUNTS. COASTAL HILLS/MOUNTAINS MAY RECEIVE GREATER
STORM TOTALS VS OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST DUE TO 0.75" TO 1" PRECIPITABLE
WATERS (75TH TO 90TH PERCENTILES FOR THE TIME OF YEAR) EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE WARM AND COLD FRONTS. HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS SO FAR INCLUDE
OCCIDENTAL AND GRATON HAVING RECEIVED 0.34" AND 0.28" RESPECTIVELY.
VENADO 0.22" RAIN SO FAR.
WE'LL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE TO GET GUSTY TO VERY
GUSTY NEARING WIND ADVISORY LEVEL, HOWEVER FOR THE TIME BEING WE'LL
CONTINUE TO WAIT ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY, RATHER WILL MESSAGE
ON SOCIAL MEDIA SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES AS NEEDED.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 135 PM PDT SUN OCT 26 2025 (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
SATURDAY)
HIGH PRESSURE DOESN'T HESITATE TO REBUILD BEHIND TONIGHT'S EASTWARD
EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXPECT A WARMING AND DRYING TREND THIS
WEEK, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING BACK UP TO 5F TO 10F ABOVE NORMAL
BY MID-WEEK. MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLES SHOW POSITIVE ANOMALY 500 MB HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM PDT SUN OCT 26 2025
INTERMITTENT POOR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING DUE TO CIGS AND SHRA. A COMPACT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
FEATURE WILL INDUCE LARGELY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW AT MOST TERMINALS. GUSTS AS GREAT AS 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
FORECAST, THOUGH THERE'S AROUND A 5-10% CHANCE FOR GUSTS CLOSER TO
30 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. SHRA WILL BE
CAPABLE OF LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITY INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY FOR A
2-4 HOUR WINDOW AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON. FROPA,
ANTICIPATED LARGELY BETWEEN 02-04 UTC, WILL SIGNAL THE END TO THE
SHRA POTENTIAL AND ALSO BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. AT
THIS TIME, GUSTS STILL APPEAR THAT THEY'LL PEAK AROUND 25 KNOTS,
HOWEVER, LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS MAY SUPPORT GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 30
KNOTS. THE POST-FRONTAL CEILING POTENTIAL IS GREATEST AT NORTH AND
EAST BAY TERMINALS LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
SITES SUCH AS KSTS AND KAPC STAND THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR CEILINGS
DIPPING BELOW FL025, WITH A NON-ZERO RISK FOR IFR TO LIFR
VISIBILITY AS WELL. DRY AIR SHOULD WHISK AWAY ANY LOW CLOUDS/BR/FG
BY 18 UTC MONDAY, BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.
VICINITY OF SFO...CURRENTLY VFR WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS. CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH WIND GUSTS
POTENTIALLY FORCING "SOUTH PLAN" OPERATIONS. MVFR CEILINGS (AND
LOSS OF VAPS), S'LY GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS AND A 15-25 KNOT
CROSSWIND (28L/28R) ON WET RUNWAYS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO IMPACT THE
EARLY AFTERNOON PUSH (AROUND 2100 UTC). FROPA NEAR 00 UTC SHOULD
SHIFT WINDS SUCH THAT A WEST PLAN WOULD BE FAVORED THOUGH A 15 TO
25 KNOT CROSSWIND MAY STILL EXIST ON 01L/01R. WINDS SHOULD EASE
TOWARD 03 UTC WITH MORE FAVORABLE FLYING CONDITIONS FOR THE
EVENING ARRIVALS, HOWEVER, INTERMITTENT CIGS AT OR BELOW FL040
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED. THERE'S AROUND A 10% CHANCE FOR MVFR
CEILINGS THROUGH MID-MORNING MONDAY, WITH CIGS LIFTING AND
SCATTERING THROUGH THE DAY.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...LOSS OF VAPS ANTICIPATED AROUND 21 UTC DUE
TO CIGS AND SOUTH WINDS MAY ENCOURAGE S. PLAN OPS. LOW CONFIDENCE
IN A RETURN TO VAPS AFTER 00 UTC WITH CIGS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR CURRENTLY, WITH MVFR ACCOMPANYING
SHRA LATER TODAY. LARGELY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AS A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH A WINDSHIFT TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST IN ITS WAKE. SHRA INVOF KMRY AND KSNS TO RESULT IN
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS (AND POTENTIALLY VISIBILITY) THROUGH 04
UTC. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAF AFTER 04 UTC AS SOME MODEL
PROJECTIONS SUGGEST MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AT KMRY. TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL INCLUSION AT SUBSEQUENT TAF UPDATES.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 934 AM PDT SUN OCT 26 2025
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENCOURAGE FRESH TO GALE BREEZES
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY. THE
MOST LIKELY REGION FOR GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE NEAR AND NORTH OF
POINT REYES. THIS WILL EQUATE TO HAZARDOUS SEAS WITH WITH STEEP
WAVES OF 10 TO 15 FEET. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION LATER TODAY, BRINGING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AND A WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT. WHILE NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL LARGELY DIMINISH THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, PERIODS OF 20 TO 25
KNOT WINDS WILL STILL TRANSLATE TO ROUGH TO HAZARDOUS SEAS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1130 AM PDT SUN OCT 26 2025
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LARGE BREAKING WAVES
AND AN INCREASED RISK FOR SNEAKER WAVES AND RIP CURRENTS THROUGH
TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR WEST TO NORTHWEST FACING BEACHES. BREAKING
WAVES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN 15 AND 20 FEET, WITH MODERATE
TO STEEP BEACHES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE BREAKING WAVES IN
EXCESS OF 25 FEET. SNEAKER WAVES CAN UNEXPECTEDLY RUN
SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER UP THE BEACH THAN NORMAL, INCLUDING OVER
ROCKS AND JETTIES. RIP CURRENTS ARE TYPICALLY MORE FREQUENT AND
STRONGER IN THE VICINITY OF JETTIES, INLETS, AND PIERS. SWIMMERS
SHOULD ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD. REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER TO
AVOID HAZARDOUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS AND NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON
THE OCEAN!
BAIN/SARMENT
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CAZ006-505-509-
529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR SF BAY N OF
BAY BRIDGE.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM PDT TUESDAY
FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...CANEPA
LONG TERM....CANEPA
AVIATION...BAIN
MARINE...BAIN
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