958
FXUS66 KMTR 270333
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
833 PM PDT SUN OCT 26 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 934 AM PDT SUN OCT 26 2025
- HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY
- WINDS BECOMING GUSTY WITH BENEFICIAL RAIN ACROSS THE BAY AREA
TODAY
- WARMING AND DRYING TREND STARTS MONDAY
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 827 PM PDT SUN OCT 26 2025
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK BEHIND A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT
THAT HAS MOSTLY PUSHED EAST THROUGH OUR AREA THIS EVENING. COASTAL
RANGES WITH UPSLOPE ORIENTATION TO THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVED
ONSHORE EARLIER TODAY SAW THE MOST RAINFALL WITH SPOTS NEAR MT.
TAM AND BEN LOMOND GETTING AROUND 0.45" TO 0.65", MOST OTHER SPOTS
RECEIVED LESS THAN 0.25" IF THEY GOT ANY RAINFALL AT ALL. A WARMER
AND DRIER PATTERN SETS IN ON MONDAY WITH LIGHT BUT STEADY OFFSHORE
FLOW IN PLACE MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 135 PM PDT SUN OCT 26 2025 (THIS EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY)
WE'RE CLOSELY MONITORING AN EASTWARD MOVING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NEARING FORT BRAGG, INCLUDING MONITORING THE WARM FRONT
AND COLD FRONTS ATTACHED TO THE LOW. IT'S THE PASSAGE OF THE
WARM FRONT AND QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS THE COLD FRONT THAT'LL
CONTINUE TO BRING INCREASING CLOUDS, WINDS AND AN INCREASING
PROBABILITY OF RAIN TO THE BAY AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AND
DEPENDING HOW WELL OR NOT THE FRONTS HOLD TOGETHER WHILE MOVING
SOUTH AND EAST WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH WIND AND MEASURABLE RAIN
REACH THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT. THE LOW EXITS TO OUR EAST TONIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER
RETURNING AND ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY STRENGTHENS BEGINNING TONIGHT
AND MONDAY.
THE APPROACHING FRONTS AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS MOSTLY FOCUSED
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE TO ~ 850 MB LEVEL (~ 5000 FEET) WHILE A DRY
AIR INTRUSION WILL OCCUR AT THE 700-500 MB LAYER GREATLY LIMITING
IF NOT ENTIRELY PRECLUDING ANY VERTICAL EXTENT OF CONVECTION. MOST
IF NOT ALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE STRATIFORM TYPE, LOCALLY ENHANCED
BY WINDWARD UPSLOPING OR DECREASED BY RAIN SHADOWING, DOWNSLOPING
IN THE LEE OF THE COASTAL HILLS AND MOUNTAINS TO THE VALLEYS.
BECAUSE OF THE ELEVATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM,
LIKE YESTERDAY'S RAIN, THIS WILL QUITE LIKELY RESULT IN WIDELY
VARYING RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE VALLEYS
WILL RECEIVE THE LEAST RAINFALL (MINUS THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS WHERE
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE UPSLOPING WINDS) AND THE HILLS/MOUNTAINS THE
GREATEST RAIN AMOUNTS. COASTAL HILLS/MOUNTAINS MAY RECEIVE GREATER
STORM TOTALS VS OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST DUE TO 0.75" TO 1" PRECIPITABLE
WATERS (75TH TO 90TH PERCENTILES FOR THE TIME OF YEAR) EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE WARM AND COLD FRONTS. HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS SO FAR INCLUDE
OCCIDENTAL AND GRATON HAVING RECEIVED 0.34" AND 0.28" RESPECTIVELY.
VENADO 0.22" RAIN SO FAR.
WE'LL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE TO GET GUSTY TO VERY
GUSTY NEARING WIND ADVISORY LEVEL, HOWEVER FOR THE TIME BEING WE'LL
CONTINUE TO WAIT ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY, RATHER WILL MESSAGE
ON SOCIAL MEDIA SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS NEEDED AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 135 PM PDT SUN OCT 26 2025 (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
SATURDAY)
HIGH PRESSURE DOESN'T HESITATE TO REBUILD BEHIND TONIGHT'S EASTWARD
EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXPECT A WARMING AND DRYING TREND THIS
WEEK, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING BACK UP TO 5F TO 10F ABOVE NORMAL
BY MID-WEEK. MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLES SHOW POSITIVE ANOMALY 500 MB HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 434 PM PDT SUN OCT 26 2025
CURRENTLY A MIXED BAG OF IFR-VFR AT THE TERMINALS WITH THE COLD
FRONT AND IT'S ASSOCIATED RAIN SHOWERS HEADED TOWARDS SJC, LVK, MRY,
AND SNS. VISIBILITIES MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE TO IFR IF A RAIN SHOWER
PASSES DIRECTLY OVER A TERMINAL. OTHER IMPACTS INCLUDE WET RUNWAYS
AND A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO
WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND IT. CEILINGS WILL BE TRANSIENT BETWEEN
MVFR AND VFR DURING THIS TIME. AS FAR AS THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT
GOES, HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY NOSES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
STRENGTHENING AND SINKING INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. THIS WILL CREATE NORTHERLY FLOW AND OFFSHORE FLOW,
RESPECTIVELY, THAT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOG.
VICINITY OF SFO...CURRENTLY MVFR WITH GUSTY WESTERLY FLOW. AS THE
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TREK SOUTHEASTWARD, CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH. VFR IS EXPECTED ONCE THE INFLUENCE OF
THE COLD FRONT IS LOST.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...RAIN SHOWERS ARE STILL HEADED TOWARDS THE SAN
MATEO BRIDGE. CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE OVER THE SAN
MATEO BRIDGE APPROACH THAN SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...CURRENTLY MVFR WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
LIGHT RAIN AT MRY AND VFR WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT SNS. RAIN
SHOWERS FROM THE COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT
FOUR HOURS OR SO. VFR IS EXPECTED ONCE THE INFLUENCE OF THE COLD
FRONT IS LOST.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 PM PDT SUN OCT 26 2025
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS CONTINUING NEAR AND NORTH OF POINT ARENA
THROUGH TODAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN VERY ROUGH FOR THE OUTER WATERS
AND ROUGH FOR THE INNER WATERS TODAY, SLOWLY BEGINNING TO ABATE
TOMORROW TO BECOME ROUGH TO MODERATE RESPECTFULLY BY TUESDAY.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1130 AM PDT SUN OCT 26 2025
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LARGE BREAKING WAVES
AND AN INCREASED RISK FOR SNEAKER WAVES AND RIP CURRENTS THROUGH
TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR WEST TO NORTHWEST FACING BEACHES. BREAKING
WAVES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN 15 AND 20 FEET, WITH MODERATE
TO STEEP BEACHES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE BREAKING WAVES IN
EXCESS OF 25 FEET. SNEAKER WAVES CAN UNEXPECTEDLY RUN
SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER UP THE BEACH THAN NORMAL, INCLUDING OVER
ROCKS AND JETTIES. RIP CURRENTS ARE TYPICALLY MORE FREQUENT AND
STRONGER IN THE VICINITY OF JETTIES, INLETS, AND PIERS. SWIMMERS
SHOULD ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD. REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER TO
AVOID HAZARDOUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS AND NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON
THE OCEAN!
BAIN/SARMENT
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR CAZ006-505-509-
529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR SF BAY N OF
BAY BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR MRY BAY-PT REYES
TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...CANEPA
LONG TERM....CANEPA
AVIATION...SARMENT
MARINE...SARMENT
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