717
FXUS66 KMTR 270837
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
137 AM PDT MON OCT 27 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1225 AM PDT MON OCT 27 2025
- PLEASANT WEATHER THIS THE WEEK
- LIGHT OFFSHORE WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY TUE-WED
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1225 AM PDT MON OCT 27 2025
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
THE RADAR HAS BEEN PUT BACK IN CLEAR AIR MODE AS THE RAIN HAS
ENDED ACROSS THE CWA. SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS PERSIST OVER THE BAY
AREA, BUT THEY SHOULD CLEAR BY MID DAY AS MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS
IN. THE SFO-WMC GRADIENT WAS +6.7 MB AT 26/06Z, AND HAS DROPPED
TO +2.3 BY 27/06Z. THIS GRADIENT WILL FLIP NEGATIVE AND CONTINUE
TO DROP THROUGH THE DAY, EVENTUALLY REACHING -5 MB OR SO AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND A SURFACE TROUGH
FORMS OVER CALIFORNIA. THIS GRADIENT WILL TRIGGER SOME DRY,
OFFSHORE, N-NE WINDS THAT WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE 850MB
TEMPERATURE IS QUICKLY RISING, BUT IS STILL BELOW NORMAL AND THE
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD TODAY.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1225 AM PDT MON OCT 27 2025
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
CLASSIC LA NINA PATTERN THIS WEEK WITH A FEW WEAK TROUGHS MOVING
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WHILE A STRONG RIDGE PERSISTS OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE BAY AREA WILL BE INFLUENCED MORE BY THE
RIDGING, BUT IT WON'T BE QUITE AS HOT AS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE
WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND CONTINUED OFFSHORE WIND. INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S WITH THE MINIMUM RH DROPPING TO 25-35%. THE
OFFSHORE WIND WILL HELP PUSH THE WARMER AIR ALL THE WAY TO THE
COAST, WHERE THE TEMPERATURE SHOULD CLIMB TO UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. THE ACTUAL WIND SPEED DOESN'T LOOK VERY STRONG, HELPING KEEP
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN CHECK. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER AND CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. SINCE
TEMPERATURES ARE AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEGREES HIGHER THAN NORMAL, WE
HAVE SOME MINOR HEATRISK MID WEEK. THE OFFSHORE WIND WILL LIKELY
EASE OR FLIP BACK ONSHORE BY THURSDAY, WHICH COULD BRING US SOME
CLOUD COVER, BUT STILL NO CHANCE OF RAIN. MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SUGGEST RIDGING WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 905 PM PDT SUN OCT 26 2025
CURRENTLY A MIXED BAG OF MVFR-VFR AT THE TERMINALS. IT'LL LIKELY BE
A TRANSIENT START TO THE TAF PERIOD WITH CEILINGS FLUXING BETWEEN
MVFR-VFR. NORTHERLY/OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS IS EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO HAVE PREVAILING THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
VICINITY OF SFO...CURRENTLY MVFR WITH WESTERLY FLOW. A GENEROUS HIGH-
END MVFR CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED, THE CEILING MAY FLUX BETWEEN
MVFR AND VFR, BUT VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. WINDS WILL VEER
THROUGH THE NIGHT TO BECOME NORTHERLY. THE SEA BREEZE WILL RETURN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH A SIMILAR WIND PATTERN EXPECTED TOMORROW
NIGHT.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...CURRENTLY VFR WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
BOTH TERMINALS. VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
IF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WERE TO DEVELOP, IT WOULD LIKELY BE WITHIN THE
NEXT FOUR HOURS OR SO.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 905 PM PDT SUN OCT 26 2025
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH NEAR-GALE FORCE GUSTS FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND COASTAL JET
REGION OF POINT SUR. SEAS WILL REMAIN VERY ROUGH FOR THE OUTER
WATERS AND ROUGH FOR THE INNER WATERS TODAY, SLOWLY BEGINNING TO
ABATE TOMORROW TO BECOME ROUGH TO MODERATE RESPECTFULLY BY
TUESDAY.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 3 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MRY
BAY-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PT ARENA TO
PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 0-10 NM-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...FLYNN
LONG TERM....FLYNN
AVIATION...SARMENT
MARINE...SARMENT
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