628
FXUS66 KMTR 271209
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
509 AM PDT MON OCT 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1225 AM PDT MON OCT 27 2025
- PLEASANT WEATHER THIS THE WEEK
- LIGHT OFFSHORE WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY TUE-WED
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1225 AM PDT MON OCT 27 2025
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
THE RADAR HAS BEEN PUT BACK IN CLEAR AIR MODE AS THE RAIN HAS
ENDED ACROSS THE CWA. SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS PERSIST OVER THE BAY
AREA, BUT THEY SHOULD CLEAR BY MID DAY AS MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS
IN. THE SFO-WMC GRADIENT WAS +6.7 MB AT 26/06Z, AND HAS DROPPED
TO +2.3 BY 27/06Z. THIS GRADIENT WILL FLIP NEGATIVE AND CONTINUE
TO DROP THROUGH THE DAY, EVENTUALLY REACHING -5 MB OR SO AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND A SURFACE TROUGH
FORMS OVER CALIFORNIA. THIS GRADIENT WILL TRIGGER SOME DRY,
OFFSHORE, N-NE WINDS THAT WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE 850MB
TEMPERATURE IS QUICKLY RISING, BUT IS STILL BELOW NORMAL AND THE
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD TODAY.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1225 AM PDT MON OCT 27 2025
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
CLASSIC LA NINA PATTERN THIS WEEK WITH A FEW WEAK TROUGHS MOVING
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WHILE A STRONG RIDGE PERSISTS OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE BAY AREA WILL BE INFLUENCED MORE BY THE
RIDGING, BUT IT WON'T BE QUITE AS HOT AS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE
WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND CONTINUED OFFSHORE WIND. INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S WITH THE MINIMUM RH DROPPING TO 25-35%. THE
OFFSHORE WIND WILL HELP PUSH THE WARMER AIR ALL THE WAY TO THE
COAST, WHERE THE TEMPERATURE SHOULD CLIMB TO UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. THE ACTUAL WIND SPEED DOESN'T LOOK VERY STRONG, HELPING KEEP
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN CHECK. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER AND CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. SINCE
TEMPERATURES ARE AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEGREES HIGHER THAN NORMAL, WE
HAVE SOME MINOR HEATRISK MID WEEK. THE OFFSHORE WIND WILL LIKELY
EASE OR FLIP BACK ONSHORE BY THURSDAY, WHICH COULD BRING US SOME
CLOUD COVER, BUT STILL NO CHANCE OF RAIN. MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SUGGEST RIDGING WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 508 AM PDT MON OCT 27 2025
LIGHT WINDS AND MVFR CIGS ARE AFFECTING ALL OF THE TAF SITES. CLOUD
COVER ERODES THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING WITH MODERATE WINDS
BUILDING IN TIME FOR THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER FAILS TO RETURN INTO
THE NIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED IN THE EVENING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
VICINITY OF SFO...MVFR CIGS ERODE INTO THE MID MORNING AS
MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ARRIVE. EXPECT WINDS TO TURN MORE
WESTERLY INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 22 KTS. THESE
WINDS TURN LATE AND VARIABLE INTO THE NIGHT.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS SCATTER AND ERODE INTO THE MID
MORNING AS MODERATE WINDS BUILD. EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS NEAR SNS
THROUGH THE DAY, WHILE MRY STARTS NORTHEAST THEN TURNS NORTHWEST IN
THE AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO THE LATE
EVENING.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 508 AM PDT MON OCT 27 2025
BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH NEAR-
GALE FORCE GUSTS FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND COASTAL JET REGION OF
POINT SUR. SEAS ABATE THROUGH THE MORNING ABATE BECOMING MODERATE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PT ARENA TO
PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 0-10 NM-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT PINOS TO PT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM TUESDAY TO 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...FLYNN
LONG TERM....FLYNN
AVIATION...MURDOCK
MARINE...MURDOCK
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