086
FXUS66 KMTR 271754
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1054 AM PDT MON OCT 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1225 AM PDT MON OCT 27 2025
- PLEASANT WEATHER THIS THE WEEK
- LIGHT OFFSHORE WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY TUE-WED
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 851 AM PDT MON OCT 27 2025
LOW CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO MIX OUT ACROSS THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL
COAST, AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MIX OUT THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
AFTERWARDS CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE NECESSARY
AT THIS TIME.
DIALH
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1225 AM PDT MON OCT 27 2025
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
THE RADAR HAS BEEN PUT BACK IN CLEAR AIR MODE AS THE RAIN HAS
ENDED ACROSS THE CWA. SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS PERSIST OVER THE BAY
AREA, BUT THEY SHOULD CLEAR BY MID DAY AS MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS
IN. THE SFO-WMC GRADIENT WAS +6.7 MB AT 26/06Z, AND HAS DROPPED
TO +2.3 BY 27/06Z. THIS GRADIENT WILL FLIP NEGATIVE AND CONTINUE
TO DROP THROUGH THE DAY, EVENTUALLY REACHING -5 MB OR SO AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND A SURFACE TROUGH
FORMS OVER CALIFORNIA. THIS GRADIENT WILL TRIGGER SOME DRY,
OFFSHORE, N-NE WINDS THAT WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE 850MB
TEMPERATURE IS QUICKLY RISING, BUT IS STILL BELOW NORMAL AND THE
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD TODAY.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1225 AM PDT MON OCT 27 2025
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
CLASSIC LA NINA PATTERN THIS WEEK WITH A FEW WEAK TROUGHS MOVING
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WHILE A STRONG RIDGE PERSISTS OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE BAY AREA WILL BE INFLUENCED MORE BY THE
RIDGING, BUT IT WON'T BE QUITE AS HOT AS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE
WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND CONTINUED OFFSHORE WIND. INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S WITH THE MINIMUM RH DROPPING TO 25-35%. THE
OFFSHORE WIND WILL HELP PUSH THE WARMER AIR ALL THE WAY TO THE
COAST, WHERE THE TEMPERATURE SHOULD CLIMB TO UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. THE ACTUAL WIND SPEED DOESN'T LOOK VERY STRONG, HELPING KEEP
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN CHECK. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER AND CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. SINCE
TEMPERATURES ARE AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEGREES HIGHER THAN NORMAL, WE
HAVE SOME MINOR HEATRISK MID WEEK. THE OFFSHORE WIND WILL LIKELY
EASE OR FLIP BACK ONSHORE BY THURSDAY, WHICH COULD BRING US SOME
CLOUD COVER, BUT STILL NO CHANCE OF RAIN. MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SUGGEST RIDGING WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1053 AM PDT MON OCT 27 2025
THE STORY FOR THIS MORNING IS, HOW LONG WILL IT TAKE FOR THE STRATUS
TO CLEAR OUT. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE NORTH BAY AND MONTEREY BAY
TERMINALS HAVE MORE OR LESS CLEARED OUT. THE "BAD" NEWS IS THAT THE
REST OF THE BAY AREA TERMINALS HAVE NOT. TIMING IS RATHER DIFFICULT
FOR THIS AS MOST MODELS SHOW ALL SITES CLEARING BY 18Z, WHICH IS NOT
THE CASE. EXPECT CLEARING TO LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 18Z-21Z, WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING AFTER THAT.
VICINITY OF SFO...STRATUS IS CONTINUES TO FLOW IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
THIS MORNING, WHICH HAS LEAD TO MVFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING FROM KOAK
TO KHAF. FOLLOWING SATELLITE TRENDS, KSFO SHOULD CLEAR OUT BETWEEN
19-20Z, PERHAPS LINGERING TO 21Z IF WE'RE UNLUCKY. ONCE WE DO CLEAR,
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND ONSHORE WINDS WILL PICK UP AND
BECOME GUSTY. WIND GUSTS TO 20-22KT ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS, WITH WINDS EASING AND BRIEFLY BECOMING OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY
MORNING. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WITH MAINLY NORTHERLY LIGHT WINDS AT KSNS AND NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS AT KMRY. WINDS EASE DURING THE EVENING AND BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 851 AM PDT MON OCT 27 2025
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH NEAR- GALE FORCE GUSTS FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND COASTAL
JET REGION OF POINT SUR. SEAS ABATE THROUGH THE MORNING ABATE
BECOMING MODERATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 0-10 NM-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT PINOS TO PT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM TUESDAY TO 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...FLYNN
LONG TERM....FLYNN
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...KR
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