021
FXUS66 KMTR 272134
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
234 PM PDT MON OCT 27 2025
..NEW MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1248 PM PDT MON OCT 27 2025
- PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK
- MILD OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
- TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1248 PM PDT MON OCT 27 2025
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LINGERING STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTH BAY.
CURRENT THINKING IS FOR THE CLOUD COVER TO LAST FOR ANOTHER COUPLE
OF HOURS. AFTER THE STRATUS MIXES OUT, THE SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR
THROUGH THE DAY AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, STRAIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN TRANSITION TODAY, AS ZONAL FLOW (WEST TO
EAST WINDS) ALOFT THIS MORNING GIVES WAY TO A BUILDING RIDGE THAT
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. TODAY'S
HIGHS REMAIN COOL WITH THE INLAND VALLEYS REACHING TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 70S, WITH AREAS ALONG THE BAYS GOING INTO THE UPPER 60S
AND THE PACIFIC COAST SEEING HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. AFTER
A COOL MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS MOST
OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, A MARKED WARMING TREND BEGINS ON TUESDAY AS
TEMPERATURES RISE SLIGHTLY (5 TO 10 DEGREES) ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES, WITH THE INLAND VALLEYS SEEING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
THE LOWER 80S, THE BAYSIDE REGIONS SEEING HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S, AND THE PACIFIC COAST HOVERING AROUND THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S. THE RESULTING THERMAL TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA WILL COMBINE
WITH A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO PRODUCE
MILD OFFSHORE FLOW, WITH LIGHT WINDS FROM THE NORTH AND THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND
SPEEDS WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN CHECK.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1248 PM PDT MON OCT 27 2025
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
THE OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH A PEAK IN
THE TEMPERATURES THAT DAY AS THE INLAND VALLEYS REACH THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S. TEMPERATURES REACH THE 10-15 DEGREE ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGE MARK AND MINOR HEATRISK IS POSSIBLE, CORRESPONDING TO A
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAT RELATED ILLNESS FOR PEOPLE HIGHLY SENSITIVE TO
HEAT. AN INCOMING TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN TIER WILL RESTORE MAINLY
ONSHORE FLOW AND CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO DIP ACROSS MUCH THE REGION,
WITH THE INLAND VALLEYS ACROSS THE BAY AREA SEEING HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AND THE BAY AREA PACIFIC COAST DIPPING TO NEAR
60 WHILE THE INTERIOR CENTRAL COAST CONTINUES TO SEE HIGHS IN THE
80S. ENHANCED CLOUD COVER IS POSSIBLE, BUT ANY RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
FAR TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL
QUICKLY REBOUND AND RETURN TO THE 5-10 DEGREE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE
BRACKET FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, WITH CPC OUTLOOKS SUGGESTING THAT
TEMPERATURE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF
NOVEMBER.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1053 AM PDT MON OCT 27 2025
THE STORY FOR THIS MORNING IS, HOW LONG WILL IT TAKE FOR THE STRATUS
TO CLEAR OUT. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE NORTH BAY AND MONTEREY BAY
TERMINALS HAVE MORE OR LESS CLEARED OUT. THE "BAD" NEWS IS THAT THE
REST OF THE BAY AREA TERMINALS HAVE NOT. TIMING IS RATHER DIFFICULT
FOR THIS AS MOST MODELS SHOW ALL SITES CLEARING BY 18Z, WHICH IS NOT
THE CASE. EXPECT CLEARING TO LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 18Z-21Z, WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING AFTER THAT.
VICINITY OF SFO...STRATUS IS CONTINUES TO FLOW IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
THIS MORNING, WHICH HAS LEAD TO MVFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING FROM KOAK
TO KHAF. FOLLOWING SATELLITE TRENDS, KSFO SHOULD CLEAR OUT BETWEEN
19-20Z, PERHAPS LINGERING TO 21Z IF WE'RE UNLUCKY. ONCE WE DO CLEAR,
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND ONSHORE WINDS WILL PICK UP AND
BECOME GUSTY. WIND GUSTS TO 20-22KT ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS, WITH WINDS EASING AND BRIEFLY BECOMING OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY
MORNING. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WITH MAINLY NORTHERLY LIGHT WINDS AT KSNS AND NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS AT KMRY. WINDS EASE DURING THE EVENING AND BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM PDT MON OCT 27 2025
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH NEAR- GALE FORCE GUSTS FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND COASTAL
JET REGION OF POINT SUR. SEAS WILL BE MODERATE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PT ARENA TO
PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 0-10 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM TUESDAY TO 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...DIALH
LONG TERM....DIALH
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...KR
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