904
FXUS66 KMTR 281148
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
448 AM PDT TUE OCT 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 305 AM PDT TUE OCT 28 2025
- PLEASANT WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.
- LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 305 AM PDT TUE OCT 28 2025
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ANY NIGHT OWLS OUT THERE? IF SO, YOU MAY NOTICE QUITE THE DIFFERENCE
WALKING OUTSIDE TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. A 24 HOUR SATELLITE
COMPARISON SHOWS WIDESPREAD STRATUS ACROSS THE BAY AREA LAST NIGHT
COMPARED TO COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE RUNNING AROUND 30% TO 60% DRIER TONIGHT COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO. THIS IS IN PART THANKS TO ZONAL FLOW GIVING WAY TO A BUILDING
RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND PERSISTENT LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION. OFFSHORE FLOW TYPICALLY BRINGS IN WARMER AND DRIER AIR
WHICH WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS FOG AND LOW LEVEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THIS
MORNING AND KEEP MORNING TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN THEY WERE
YESTERDAY. THIS CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES IS MOST NOTABLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING AROUND 10 TO 14
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT WARMER TONIGHT THAN THEY WERE AT THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S WITH PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR CENTRAL COAST REACHING
THE LOW TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES WARM UP NICELY BY THE AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND 60S TO
70S ALONG THE COASTLINE. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW DUE TO
RELATIVELY MOIST FUEL.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 305 AM PDT TUE OCT 28 2025
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
THE PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY STAGNANT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE FORECAST. WE WILL
HOWEVER STILL SEE SOME VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND UPPER 60S TO 70S ALONG THE COASTLINE. BY
THURSDAY, THE OFFSHORE WIND GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AND GRADUALLY SHIFT
ONSHORE AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES INTO CALIFORNIA. THE
RETURN OF ONSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND UPPER 50S TO
60S ALONG THE COASTLINE. BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND RIDGING WILL AGAIN BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RISING BY A FEW DEGREES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVER THE WEEKEND, SHIFTING BETWEEN ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE AT
TIMES, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
60S ALONG THE COASTLINE. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE COOLER WEATHER RETURNS MIDWEEK AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE WEST COAST. INITIAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA BUT THIS IS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS IT IS OVER A WEEK OUT STILL.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 305 AM PDT TUE OCT 28 2025
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
THE PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY STAGNANT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE FORECAST. WE WILL
HOWEVER STILL SEE SOME VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND UPPER 60S TO 70S ALONG THE COASTLINE. BY
THURSDAY, THE OFFSHORE WIND GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AND GRADUALLY SHIFT
ONSHORE AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES INTO CALIFORNIA. THE
RETURN OF ONSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND UPPER 50S TO
60S ALONG THE COASTLINE. BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND RIDGING WILL AGAIN BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RISING BY A FEW DEGREES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVER THE WEEKEND, SHIFTING BETWEEN ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE AT
TIMES, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
60S ALONG THE COASTLINE. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE COOLER WEATHER RETURNS MIDWEEK AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE WEST COAST. INITIAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA BUT THIS IS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS IT IS OVER A WEEK OUT STILL.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 448 AM PDT TUE OCT 28 2025
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING
WITH SLIGHT INCREASES INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL
TREND NORTHERLY, BUT SOME SITES WILL BE MOSTLY SEE WIND DIRECTIONS
AFFECTED BY MORE LOCALIZED AFFECTS. WINDS OVERALL LOOK TO REDUCE
INTO THE NIGHT AND BECOME LIGHT.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS ARRIVING IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WEAKEN INTO THE NIGHT AND TURN WESTERLY.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS
LAST THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE INCREASING SLIGHTLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND TURN NORTH TO NORTHWEST. WINDS REDUCE INTO THE EVENING, BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM PDT TUE OCT 28 2025
BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH NEAR-
GALE FORCE GUSTS FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND COASTAL JET REGION OF
POINT SUR. SEAS STAY LIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BUT INCREASE INTO
THURSDAY, WITH SOME REDUCTIONS ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE AGAIN OVER
THE WEEKEND.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM PDT THURSDAY
FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...KENNEDY
LONG TERM....KENNEDY
AVIATION...MURDOCK
MARINE...MURDOCK
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