099
FXUS66 KMTR 281727
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1027 AM PDT TUE OCT 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 305 AM PDT TUE OCT 28 2025
- PLEASANT WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.
- LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 917 AM PDT TUE OCT 28 2025
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PATCH OF STRATUS LINGERING RIGHT AT THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF MONTEREY COUNTY NEAR CAMP ROBERTS. OTHERWISE, THE
SKIES ARE CLEAR AND THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
DIALH
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 305 AM PDT TUE OCT 28 2025
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ANY NIGHT OWLS OUT THERE? IF SO, YOU MAY NOTICE QUITE THE DIFFERENCE
WALKING OUTSIDE TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. A 24 HOUR SATELLITE
COMPARISON SHOWS WIDESPREAD STRATUS ACROSS THE BAY AREA LAST NIGHT
COMPARED TO COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE RUNNING AROUND 30% TO 60% DRIER TONIGHT COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO. THIS IS IN PART THANKS TO ZONAL FLOW GIVING WAY TO A BUILDING
RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND PERSISTENT LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION. OFFSHORE FLOW TYPICALLY BRINGS IN WARMER AND DRIER AIR
WHICH WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS FOG AND LOW LEVEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THIS
MORNING AND KEEP MORNING TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN THEY WERE
YESTERDAY. THIS CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES IS MOST NOTABLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING AROUND 10 TO 14
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT WARMER TONIGHT THAN THEY WERE AT THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S WITH PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR CENTRAL COAST REACHING
THE LOW TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES WARM UP NICELY BY THE AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND 60S TO
70S ALONG THE COASTLINE. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW DUE TO
RELATIVELY MOIST FUEL.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 305 AM PDT TUE OCT 28 2025
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
THE PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY STAGNANT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE FORECAST. WE WILL
HOWEVER STILL SEE SOME VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND UPPER 60S TO 70S ALONG THE COASTLINE. BY
THURSDAY, THE OFFSHORE WIND GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AND GRADUALLY SHIFT
ONSHORE AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES INTO CALIFORNIA. THE
RETURN OF ONSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND UPPER 50S TO
60S ALONG THE COASTLINE. BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND RIDGING WILL AGAIN BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RISING BY A FEW DEGREES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVER THE WEEKEND, SHIFTING BETWEEN ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE AT
TIMES, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
60S ALONG THE COASTLINE. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE COOLER WEATHER RETURNS MIDWEEK AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE WEST COAST. INITIAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA BUT THIS IS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS IT IS OVER A WEEK OUT STILL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1026 AM PDT TUE OCT 28 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DIAMANTE THE FORECAST, LEADING TO
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT MOST SITES ALONG WITH DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WINDS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT FOR MOST AREAS, AND LESS
THAN 10 KT. A FEW MODELS HINT AT THE KSTS SEEING REDUCED
VISIBILITYAGAIN TOMORROW MORNING, LIKELY DUE TO THE RUSSIAN
RIVER'S INFLUENCE. OPTED TO HINT AT THAT MVFR VISIBILITY
CONDITIONS, FOR A FEW HOURS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SUNRISE.
ELSEWHERE, KHAF HAS REPORTED VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. WEBCAMS SHOW
THIS IS LIKELY HAZE AND/OR SEA SPRAY. ADDED THAT THE TAF THROUGH
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. IF CONDITIONS HOLD WE MAY NEED AGAIN TOMORROW,
AND PERHAPS FOR OTHER TAF SITES.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, WITH ONSHORE WINDS
DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
WINDS SHOULD DECREASE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH A RINSE AND
REPEAT FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WITH OFFSHORE WINDS OCCURING DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS AND ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 917 AM PDT TUE OCT 28 2025
BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH NEAR-
GALE FORCE GUSTS FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND COASTAL JET REGION OF
POINT SUR. SEAS STAY LIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BUT BUILD INTO
THURSDAY. SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE SOME ON FRIDAY AND REBUILD AGAIN
OVER THE WEEKEND.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM PDT THURSDAY
FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...KENNEDY
LONG TERM....KENNEDY
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...KR
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