463
FXUS66 KMTR 281918
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1218 PM PDT TUE OCT 28 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1217 PM PDT TUE OCT 28 2025
- PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
- MILD OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1217 PM PDT TUE OCT 28 2025
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
A LOOK AT THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NARY A CLOUD IN THE SKY
ACROSS THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS TAKEN
HOLD AND IS CAUSING THE WARMER TEMPERATURES THAT WE WILL SEE THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS IS BEING REINFORCED BY MILD OFFSHORE
FLOW, THE PRODUCT OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM A THERMAL TROUGH OVER
THE STATE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THE SFO-WMC GRADIENT PEAKED AT AROUND 14-15Z (7-8 AM
PACIFIC TIME) WITH A GRADIENT VALUE OF -10.3 MB. THE GRADIENT HAS
BEGUN TO RELAX SINCE THEN, BUT AS OF 18Z (11 AM) IT WAS STILL VERY
ROBUST AT -9.4 MB. ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, LIGHT TO GENTLE
OFFSHORE BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING, BEFORE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER
80S IN THE INLAND VALLEYS, THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S CLOSE TO THE
BAYS, AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. TOMORROW,
HIGHS WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES IN THE INLAND AREAS, WITH LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S IN THE INLAND VALLEYS AND THE MIDDLE 70S TO NEAR 80 IN
THE BAYSIDE AREAS.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1217 PM PDT TUE OCT 28 2025
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
BY THURSDAY, THE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL TURN TOWARDS A MORE ONSHORE
PATTERN, AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DECAYS INTO A MORE ZONAL FLOW,
ALLOWING FOR ENHANCED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE BAY AREA. HIGHS IN THE
BAY AREA INTERIOR VALLEYS DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S, WITH THE
SAN FRANCISCO BAY SEEING HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE
PACIFIC COAST WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S, WHILE
THE INTERIOR CENTRAL COAST REMAINS WARM IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE
MIDDLE 80S. TEMPERATURES RECOVER ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S IN THE INLAND VALLEYS, AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S CLOSE TO THE BAYS, WITH THE WARMER CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS ITSELF.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES RIGHT AT THE END OF THE 7-DAY
FORECAST PERIOD AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE FIRST FULL
WEEK OF NOVEMBER. ENSEMBLE MODEL PRODUCTS ARE SUGGESTING THAT AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND MOVE
INTO THE WEST COAST. BEYOND THAT, DETAILS ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN
DOWN, AND INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST
UPDATES AS THE WEATHER PATTERN EVOLVES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1026 AM PDT TUE OCT 28 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DIAMANTE THE FORECAST, LEADING TO
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT MOST SITES ALONG WITH DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WINDS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT FOR MOST AREAS, AND LESS
THAN 10 KT. A FEW MODELS HINT AT THE KSTS SEEING REDUCED
VISIBILITY AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING, LIKELY DUE TO THE RUSSIAN
RIVER'S INFLUENCE. OPTED TO HINT AT THAT MVFR VISIBILITY
CONDITIONS, FOR A FEW HOURS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SUNRISE.
ELSEWHERE, KHAF HAS REPORTED VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. WEBCAMS SHOW
THIS IS LIKELY HAZE AND/OR SEA SPRAY. ADDED THAT THE TAF THROUGH
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. IF CONDITIONS HOLD WE MAY NEED AGAIN TOMORROW,
AND PERHAPS FOR OTHER TAF SITES.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, WITH ONSHORE WINDS
DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
WINDS SHOULD DECREASE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH A RINSE AND
REPEAT FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WITH OFFSHORE WINDS OCCURING DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS AND ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 917 AM PDT TUE OCT 28 2025
BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH NEAR-
GALE FORCE GUSTS FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND COASTAL JET REGION OF
POINT SUR. SEAS STAY LIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BUT BUILD INTO
THURSDAY. SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE SOME ON FRIDAY AND REBUILD AGAIN
OVER THE WEEKEND.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM PDT THURSDAY
FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...DIALH
LONG TERM....DIALH
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...KR
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