304
FXUS66 KMTR 290319
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
819 PM PDT TUE OCT 28 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1217 PM PDT TUE OCT 28 2025
- PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
- MILD OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 801 PM PDT TUE OCT 28 2025
FANTASTIC FALL-WEATHER AROUND THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WERE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH MANY LOCATIONS WELL INTO THE 80S. AS DISCUSSED
BELOW, OFFSHORE FLOW WAS ONE OF THE MAIN DRIVERS FOR TODAY'S
WEATHER. ANY LOCATIONS IN A DOWNSLOPE FAVORED REGIONS RECEIVED A
LITTLE EXTRA BOOST IN TEMPS DUE TO COMPRESSIONAL WARMING. SOME OF
THE HOTTEST INTERIOR/DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS PEAKED AT 87-89 DEGREES.
THE OTHER NOTEWORTHY THING FROM THE OFFSHORE FLOW IS THE LACK OF
CLOUDS. EVENING SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT SHOWS SOME COASTAL STRATUS
FORMING NEAR POINT ARENA, BUT ITS NEARSHORE DEVELOPMENT IS BEING
BUFFETED BY THE OFFSHORE FLOW. THE LARGER SCALE OFFSHORE GRADIENT
WILL MAINTAIN OVERNIGHT KEEPING MILD TEMPS AND STRATUS AWAY FROM
THE COASTLINE. DESPITE THE OFFSHORE FLOW NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. A QUICK LOOK AT REGION FIRE INDICES SHOWS
SOME RESPONSE TO THE MILD/DRY/OFFSHORE FLOW, BUT INDICES WERE SO
FAR IN THE TANK DUE TO EARLY OCT PRECIP THEY'RE NOW RETURNING TO
AVERAGE.
NO UPDATE THIS EVENING...
MM
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1217 PM PDT TUE OCT 28 2025
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
A LOOK AT THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NARY A CLOUD IN THE SKY
ACROSS THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS TAKEN
HOLD AND IS CAUSING THE WARMER TEMPERATURES THAT WE WILL SEE THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS IS BEING REINFORCED BY MILD OFFSHORE
FLOW, THE PRODUCT OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM A THERMAL TROUGH OVER
THE STATE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THE SFO-WMC GRADIENT PEAKED AT AROUND 14-15Z (7-8 AM
PACIFIC TIME) WITH A GRADIENT VALUE OF -10.3 MB. THE GRADIENT HAS
BEGUN TO RELAX SINCE THEN, BUT AS OF 18Z (11 AM) IT WAS STILL VERY
ROBUST AT -9.4 MB. ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, LIGHT TO GENTLE
OFFSHORE BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING, BEFORE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER
80S IN THE INLAND VALLEYS, THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S CLOSE TO THE
BAYS, AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. TOMORROW,
HIGHS WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES IN THE INLAND AREAS, WITH LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S IN THE INLAND VALLEYS AND THE MIDDLE 70S TO NEAR 80 IN
THE BAYSIDE AREAS.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1217 PM PDT TUE OCT 28 2025
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
BY THURSDAY, THE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL TURN TOWARDS A MORE ONSHORE
PATTERN, AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DECAYS INTO A MORE ZONAL FLOW,
ALLOWING FOR ENHANCED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE BAY AREA. HIGHS IN THE
BAY AREA INTERIOR VALLEYS DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S, WITH THE
SAN FRANCISCO BAY SEEING HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE
PACIFIC COAST WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S, WHILE
THE INTERIOR CENTRAL COAST REMAINS WARM IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE
MIDDLE 80S. TEMPERATURES RECOVER ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S IN THE INLAND VALLEYS, AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S CLOSE TO THE BAYS, WITH THE WARMER CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS ITSELF.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES RIGHT AT THE END OF THE 7-DAY
FORECAST PERIOD AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE FIRST FULL
WEEK OF NOVEMBER. ENSEMBLE MODEL PRODUCTS ARE SUGGESTING THAT AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND MOVE
INTO THE WEST COAST. BEYOND THAT, DETAILS ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN
DOWN, AND INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST
UPDATES AS THE WEATHER PATTERN EVOLVES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 426 PM PDT TUE OCT 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AT MOST TERMINALS THE NEXT 24-30 HRS. THE
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE SOME SEA SPRAY HAZE AT HAF AND A FEW HOURS OF
PATCHY FOG AT STS LATE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR. LINGERING ONSHORE WILL SWITCH TO ONSHORE
THIS EVENING. EXPECT A STRONGER ONSHORE PUSH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM PDT TUE OCT 28 2025
HIGH PRESSURE TO NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS FOR THE WEEK. WINDS WILL
BE LOCALLY STRONGER WITH OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER THE
OUTER WATERS AND NEAR SHORE SOUTH OF POINT SUR. SEAS STAY LIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY BUT BUILD INTO THURSDAY. SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE SOME
ON FRIDAY AND REBUILD AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM PDT THURSDAY
FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...DIALH
LONG TERM....DIALH
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...MM
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