697
FXUS66 KMTR 290952
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
252 AM PDT WED OCT 29 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 249 AM PDT WED OCT 29 2025
- SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.
- MILD OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- COOLING TREND BEGINS MONDAY AND POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 249 AM PDT WED OCT 29 2025
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
CONTINUING THE THEME FROM LAST NIGHT, THE MAJORITY OF THE BAY AREA
AND CENTRAL COAST IS RUNNING DRIER AND WARMER THAN IT WAS AT THIS
TIME YESTERDAY. A LOOK AT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE INTERIOR WITH SOME CLOUD COVER OVER THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT.
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW IS STILL BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE INTERIOR BUT
THE SFO-WMC GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. AS MENTIONED BY THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER, THE GRADIENT PEAKED AROUND 7/8AM YESTERDAY
MORNING AT A MAGNITUDE OF -10.30 MB. THE GRADIENT, AS OF 12 AM, HAS
WEAKENED TO -7.0 MB. MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS GRADIENT WEAKENING
FASTER THAN THE OBSERVATIONS SHOW IT IS (GFS FORECASTING THE
GRADIENT TO BE -5.0 MB AT 12 AM COMPARED TO THE OBSERVED GRADIENT OF
-7.0 MB). OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH
THE REST OF WEDNESDAY BUT IT MAY TAKE ONSHORE FLOW SLIGHTLY LONGER
TO RETURN THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED. NEWEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS PUTTING
THE SWITCH FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING NOW INSTEAD OF WEDNESDAY MORNING. AGAIN, NO REAL
FIRE CONCERNS EXPECTED WITH THIS LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW GIVEN MOIST
FUELS ACROSS THE REGION.
ANOTHER WARM FALL DAY IS ON TAP TODAY THANKS TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE WEST COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ABOUT 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S. TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSER TO SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL ALONG THE COASTLINE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
HOT SPOTS ACROSS THE GABILAN RANGE (NEAR PINNACLES NATIONAL PARK)
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER
80S. MINOR HEATRISK IS EXPECTED WHICH PRIMARILY EFFECTS ANYONE WHO
IS EXTREMELY SENSITIVE TO HEAT AND WITHOUT ACCESS TO ADEQUATE
COOLING/HYDRATION. ALL IN ALL, REMEMBER TO TAKE WATER WITH YOU WHILE
OUTDOORS AND MAKE THE MOST OUT OF THIS PLEASANTLY WARM DAY AS WE
MOVE INTO THE WINTER MONTHS.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 249 AM PDT WED OCT 29 2025
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY THURSDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
DRY COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL DROP TEMPERATURES
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO 70S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND UPPER 50S TO 60S
ALONG THE COASTLINE. THE FAR INTERIOR CENTRAL COAST WILL STILL BE ON
THE WARMER SIDE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM UP AGAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND UPPER 50S TO 60S ALONG THE COASTLINE.
THE PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED AGAIN MONDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS A
DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL KICK OFF
A COOLING TREND STARTING MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO
THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. TEMPERATURES COOL MORE
NOTICEABLY TUESDAY WITH INTERIOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S. COASTAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S
TO 60S. THIS SYSTEM WILL ADDITIONALLY BRING US OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
RAIN. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER IS HIGHLIGHTING POTENTIAL FOR
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN BOTH THE DAYS 6-10 OUTLOOK (NOV. 3-7)
AND THE DAYS 8-14 OUTLOOK (NOV. 5-11) ACROSS THE BAY AREA AND
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL COAST. IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT THE EXACT
TRACK AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE FLUCTUATING AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME TO ITS ARRIVAL.
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS LACK A
CONSENSUS AS TO HOW MUCH QPF IS EXPECTED WITH MANY FALLING INTO BOOM
(MODERATE AMOUNT OF RAIN) OR BUST (LITTLE TO NO RAIN) SCENARIOS.
WITH THAT IN MIND, WE WILL START TO GET A CLEARER PICTURE OF THIS
SYSTEM IN THE COMING DAYS SO RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO STAY UP TO
DATE ON THE FORECAST AS MORE INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM PDT TUE OCT 28 2025
NEARLY WIDESPREAD VFR THROUGH HE TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION LOOKS
TO BE STS WHICH WILL BE AFFECTED BY SOME LOCALIZED PATCHES OF FOG
INTO THE EARLY MORNING, BUT THIS SHOULD CLEAR BEFORE THE MID
MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MORNING BEFORE
MODERATE WINDS ARRIVE FOR THE AFTERNOON. WINDS FOR MOST AREAS LOOK
TO BECOME LIGHT AGAIN INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING, WHILE A FEW NEAR-
COAST SITES KEEP MODERATE WINDS.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS REDUCE INTO
THE NIGHT, BECOMING LIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT WEST WINDS INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE MORE MODERATE WEST WINDS ARRIVE IN THE MID
AFTERNOON. THESE MODERATE WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST BEYOND
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS TO LAST INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS
INCREASE SLIGHTLY AND TURN WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AGAIN INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM PDT WED OCT 29 2025
EXPECT MODERATE TO BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY STRONGER WITH OCCASIONAL
GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND NEARSHORE SOUTH OF
POINT SUR. SEAS STAY LIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT BUILD INTO
THURSDAY. SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE SOME ON FRIDAY AND REBUILD AGAIN
OVER THE WEEKEND.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
MRY BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT FRIDAY
FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...KENNEDY
LONG TERM....KENNEDY
AVIATION...MURDOCK
MARINE...MURDOCK
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