735
FXUS66 KMTR 310349
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
849 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1237 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2025
- PLEASANT WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
- COOLING TREND BEGINS MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES
- UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH RAIN
LIKELY ACROSS THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 843 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2025
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK TONIGHT WITH A MORE ROBUST MARINE
LAYER THAN WE SAW AT THIS TIME 24HRS AGO, GENERALLY 1500-2000FT.
LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR MOST COASTAL LOCATIONS. PATCHY DENSE
FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR INTERIOR VALLEYS. WHERE THE
DENSE FOG DEVELOPS AND LINGERS, IT WOULD LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE MONITORING POTENTIAL BEACH HAZARDS FOR
THIS WEEKEND, AND POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD RAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1237 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2025
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A STRATUS DECK SLOWLY DISSIPATING ACROSS
THE BAY AREA AND IN THE MONTEREY PENINSULA REGION AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE STATE, ENHANCING THE ONSHORE FLOW
AND REBUILDING THE MARINE LAYER. PROFILER OBSERVATIONS AT BODEGA BAY
AND POINT SUR PLACE THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AROUND 1000-1500 FEET.
THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO DISSIPATE THAN EARLIER FORECASTS HAVE
ANTICIPATED, THUS, I HAVE BUMPED DOWN THE EXPECTED HIGHS FOR THE
COASTAL REGIONS BY A DEGREE OR TWO TO REFLECT THE IMPEDED SOLAR
HEATING UNDER THE STRATUS DECKS, ALTHOUGH I AM STILL EXPECTING AREAS
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO CLEAR OUT, AT LEAST BRIEFLY, DURING
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S IN THE INLAND VALLEYS, WITH
THE INTERIOR CENTRAL COAST REMAINING IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S, THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE BAYS, AND THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. TOWARDS THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS,
MID- TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A DECAYED COLD FRONT WILL
COME OVER THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGIONS, WITH THE
HIGHEST PEAKS POTENTIALLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S.
ON FRIDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD REDEVELOP AND ALLOW FOR
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A COMPRESSING MARINE LAYER. HIGHS RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S IN THE INLAND VALLEYS, THE UPPER 60S TO
THE MIDDLE 70S NEAR THE BAYS, AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1237 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2025
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WITH TEMPERATURES STEADILY RISING THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
BY SUNDAY PARTS OF THE INLAND VALLEYS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
80S WHILE THE BAYS REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AND THE PACIFIC
COAST REACHES THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. BY MONDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS MOVING EASTWARD, KICKING OFF A COOLING TREND THAT
SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES, AROUND
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST.
THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
OF THE POTENTIAL RAINMAKER NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS ARE STILL IN
ALIGNMENT ON THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMING INTO THE WEST COAST
DURING THE APPROXIMATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME, WITH THE BULK OF
THE IMPACTS EXPECTED DURING THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.
THIS IS STILL 6- 7 DAYS OUT AND THERE IS STILL TIME FOR THE MODEL
FORECAST TO SHIFT. HOWEVER, THE TREND OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
MODEL RUNS HAS BEEN TO INCREASE THE CONFIDENCE FOR ANY RAIN OVER
THE REGION. WE'RE STILL SEEING A SPLIT BETWEEN THE "BOOM" AND
"BUST" SCENARIOS (MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL VERSUS LIGHT
RAINFALL) BUT THE BUST SCENARIOS ARE BECOMING SOMEWHAT LESS
LIKELY. THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED THAT OUT OF THE 30 ENSEMBLE
RUNS OF THE 00Z GFS MODEL YESTERDAY AFTERNOON, 14 OF THEM SHOWED
MORE THAN 1 INCH OF RAINFALL AT THE SONOMA COUNTY AIRPORT. WITH
THE 12Z RUN THIS MORNING, THAT NUMBER HAS INCREASED TO 18. THERE
IS ALSO A SIMILAR TREND WITH THE ENSEMBLE RUNS OF THE EUROPEAN
MODEL. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP AS THE SYSTEM PASSES OUR REGION,
BUT AS OF NOW, STAY BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WE WILL HAVE A
BETTER VIEW OF THE STORM'S EVOLUTION AS IT APPROACHES AND THE
TIMING AND TRACK OF THE STORM GETS BETTER CONSTRAINED. RESIDENTS
ARE ADVISED TO STAY UPDATED ON THE FORECAST EVOLUTION AS WE HEAD
INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 512 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2025
ONSHORE FLOW AND MARINE LAYER CLOUDS OVER PERFORMED TODAY AND
THEY'RE MAKING THEIR SLOW INLAND MARCH THIS EVENING. HAD TO MAKE A
FEW TWEAKS IN THE NEAR TERM - SAN BRUNO FEED HAS CLOUDS
FILTERING OVER SFO WITH A CIG AND EARLIER CIG ARRIVAL FOR SNS.
CIG COVERING WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THIS EVENING AND MORE SO AFTER
06Z WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON CLEARING FOR MOST
TERMINALS ON FRIDAY.
VICINITY OF SFO...BREEZE ONSHORE FLOW (G20KT) WITH CLOUDS FEEDING
THROUGH SAN BRUNO GAP THIS EVENING. EXPECTING MORE COVER OF CIGS
LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS EASE. CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE FRIDAY AM RUSH. AS CIGS CLEAR FRIDAY ONSHORE WINDS
WILL RAMP UP AGAIN OF OUT OF THE NW.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...A FEW CIGS FLIRTING WITH THE NORTH END OF
THE APPROACH, BUT SOUTHERN AREAS ARE FINE AND VFR. LOWER CIGS
FILLING INTO TONIGHT AND IMPACTING THE FRIDAY AM RUSH.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...IFR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED AND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 19-20Z.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 448 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2025
BREEZES WILL BE MODERATE TO FRESH AND INCLUDE OCCASIONAL GALE
FORCE GUSTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND NEARSHORE SOUTH OF POINT SUR
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS BUILD TONIGHT BUT SLIGHTLY SUBSIDE ON
FRIDAY THEN REBUILD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A LONGER PERIOD SWELL.
WINDS REDUCE INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK BUT BUILD AGAIN IN THE MID
WEEK AHEAD OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CHANCE OF RAIN.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR MRY BAY-PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT REYES
TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PT PINOS TO PT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...DIALH
LONG TERM....DIALH
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...CANEPA
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