477
FXUS66 KMTR 011011
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
311 AM PDT SAT NOV 1 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 309 AM PDT SAT NOV 1 2025
- QUIET AND WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND
- NEXT STORM SYSTEM ON TAP FOR LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL, HIGHEST TOTALS NORTH BAY
- POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF HAZARDOUS WIND THREAT WEDNESDAY MORNING
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 309 AM PDT SAT NOV 1 2025
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD WITH HIGH TEMPS 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SUBTLE MARINE LAYER COMPRESSION WILL RESULT IN
PATCHY DENSE FOG THROUGH SUNRISE FOR COASTAL AREAS AND PORTIONS OF
SONOMA COUNTY. OTHERWISE CLEARING OUT TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 309 AM PDT SAT NOV 1 2025
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
HONESTLY WISHING I HAD MORE OF AN UPDATE ON NEXT WEEK'S SYSTEM, BUT
THERE REALLY HAVEN'T BEEN ANY NOTABLE CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
THINKING. SOME OF THE MAIN POINTS AND FEATURES ARE STILL VALID,
WHICH I'LL MENTION AGAIN. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGESTS A
ROBUST 150 KT PACIFIC JET WILL UNFOLD ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS,
WHICH PAVES THE WAY FOR A DEEP UPPER LOW TO DIG INTO THE WEST COAST.
ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS A MAJORITY OF MEMBERS
SUPPORTING A SOLUTION WETTER THAN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN. HOWEVER, THIS
IS SLIGHTLY MORE FOCUSED ON THE NORTH BAY AT THIS TIME...PERHAPS THE
MOST NOTABLE CHANGE IN THIS FORECAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED, AND NEITHER HAS THE RANGE OF UNCERTAINTY.
STILL LOOKING AT A RANGE OF 0.75" TO 1.75" (25TH TO 75TH
PERCENTILES) FOR THE NORTH BAY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BAY AREA,
TOTALS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE AT THE BOTTOM END OF THAT RANGE, AND
EVEN LOWER ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. SINCE IT LOOKS LIKE WE'LL BE
LOOKING AT A MOSTLY BENEFICIAL RAINFALL, WIND MAY BE THE BIGGER
STORY HERE. WE'RE STILL IN LINE FOR A BRIEF GUSTY PERIOD WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE MAIN TROUGH PASSES. MODELS ARE STILL SUPPORTIVE OF 50
KT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 850 MB, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A MARGINAL
HAZARDOUS WIND THREAT. STILL TOO EARLY TO ISSUE ANY ADVISORY, BUT WE
ARE EVALUATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIND ADVISORY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES!
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1005 PM PDT FRI OCT 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AT THE MOMENT, BUT A STRATUS DECK LURKS OFF THE COAST
AND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE COASTAL TERMINALS IMMINENTLY.
CONFIDENCE IN STRATUS IMPACTS IN THE INTERIOR HAS DECREASED, AND THE
STS AND LVK TERMINALS ARE NOW VFR. THERE IS STILL A RATHER LOW
PROBABILITY OF RADIATIVE STRATUS AT THE TERMINALS, WITH THE BEST
CHANCES BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. THE STRATUS SHOULD MIX OUT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
VICINITY OF SFO... VFR CONDITIONS AT PRESENT AT THE TERMINAL. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT STRATUS DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE TERMINAL, INCLUDING OAK. AT SFO ITSELF IT LOOKS TO
BE QUITE A CLOSE CALL. CURRENTLY SEEING A 20-30% PROBABILITY THAT
STRATUS FORMS AT THE TERMINAL TONIGHT. AFTER SOME DELIBERATION,
ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FROM 12Z TO 16Z IN CASE RADIATIONAL EFFECTS AND
STRATUS FLOW COMBINE TO PRODUCE STRATUS. ANY CLOUDS THAT FORM SHOULD
CLEAR OUT SATURDAY MORNING WITH BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SOMEWHAT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN LIMITED STRATUS
IMPACTS ALONG THE APPROACH PATH, ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN
END. OTHERWISE SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS... TERMINALS REMAIN VFR AT PRESENT WITH LIFR
STRATUS ARRIVING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT BEFORE BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS RESUME SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1005 PM PDT FRI OCT 31 2025
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWEST BREEZES AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS EARLY NEXT
WEEK FOLLOWED BY AN ENERGETIC PACIFIC PATTERN BRINGING RAIN AND
WIND TO OUR COASTAL WATERS AND BAYS FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 912 PM PDT FRI OCT 31 2025
A LONG PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL BRING AN INCREASED THREAT
FOR FOR SNEAKER WAVES, RIP CURRENTS, AND BREAKING WAVES OF 12-17
FEET TO PACIFIC COAST BEACHES THROUGH MONDAY. SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS
WILL PROVIDE UPDATES TO BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS. SNEAKER WAVES CAN
UNEXPECTEDLY RUN SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER UP THE BEACH THAN NORMAL,
INCLUDING OVER ROCKS AND JETTIES. RIP CURRENTS ARE TYPICALLY MORE
FREQUENT AND STRONGER IN THE VICINITY OF JETTIES, INLETS, AND
PIERS. SWIMMERS SHOULD ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD. REMAIN OUT OF
THE WATER TO AVOID HAZARDOUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS AND NEVER TURN
YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN!
SARMENT/BAIN
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 7 AM PDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT FOR CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
PZ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR MRY BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM PDT SUNDAY
FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM PDT SUNDAY
FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...BEHRINGER
LONG TERM....BEHRINGER
AVIATION...DIALH
MARINE...SARMENT
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