855
FXUS66 KMTR 011751
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1051 AM PDT SAT NOV 1 2025
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 309 AM PDT SAT NOV 1 2025
- QUIET AND WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HAZARDOUS BEACH
CONDITIONS AT PACIFIC COAST BEACHES
- NEXT STORM SYSTEM ON TAP FOR LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL, HIGHEST TOTALS NORTH BAY
- POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF HAZARDOUS WIND THREAT WEDNESDAY MORNING
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 838 AM PDT SAT NOV 1 2025
NEAR TERM WEATHER IMPACTS FOR LAND AND WATER ARE FOG AND PATCHY
DENSE FOG FOR THAT MATTER. DECIDED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
VALID THROUGH 10 AM FOR N BAY VALLEYS AND SOUTHERN MONTEREY BAY
COAST DUE TO SENSORS/CAMS SHOWING VISBY LESS THAN 1/2 MILE WITH
POCKETS OF JUST A FEW HUNDRED FEET. MARINE LAYER IS SHALLOW IN
FLOATING IN THE 500-700 RANGE, WHICH IS LEADING TO THE FOG.
MORNING SATELLITE IS STARTING TO SHOW SOME THINNING OF THE FOG
OVER LAND, BUT COASTAL WATERS/SHORELINE STILL SHOW CLOUDS/FOG.
SPEAKING OF SATELLITE, PRETTY NEAT TO PICK OUT FOG ALONG THE
RUSSIAN RIVER IN SONOMA HEADING WEST TO THE PACIFIC. WILL HOLD
ONTO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NOW, BUT WILL WATCH TRENDS CLOSELY
AND END IT EARLY IF NEED. ALL THAT BEING SAID, BE MINDFUL IF
YOU'RE DRIVING IN THOSE AREA AND BE READY FOR FOG.
AS NOTED BELOW, TODAY WILL BE A PLEASANT DAY ONCE THE FOG
DISSIPATES. IF YOU HEAD TO THE COAST, BE CAREFUL AS A BEACH HAZARD
STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT.
FOCUS FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE REFINEMENT OF
THE WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. HOW MUCH RAIN? WHEN?
WIND IMPACTS?
MM
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 309 AM PDT SAT NOV 1 2025
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD WITH HIGH TEMPS 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SUBTLE MARINE LAYER COMPRESSION WILL RESULT IN
PATCHY DENSE FOG THROUGH SUNRISE FOR COASTAL AREAS AND PORTIONS OF
SONOMA COUNTY. OTHERWISE CLEARING OUT TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 309 AM PDT SAT NOV 1 2025
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
HONESTLY WISHING I HAD MORE OF AN UPDATE ON NEXT WEEK'S SYSTEM, BUT
THERE REALLY HAVEN'T BEEN ANY NOTABLE CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
THINKING. SOME OF THE MAIN POINTS AND FEATURES ARE STILL VALID,
WHICH I'LL MENTION AGAIN. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGESTS A
ROBUST 150 KT PACIFIC JET WILL UNFOLD ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS,
WHICH PAVES THE WAY FOR A DEEP UPPER LOW TO DIG INTO THE WEST COAST.
ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS A MAJORITY OF MEMBERS
SUPPORTING A SOLUTION WETTER THAN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN. HOWEVER, THIS
IS SLIGHTLY MORE FOCUSED ON THE NORTH BAY AT THIS TIME...PERHAPS THE
MOST NOTABLE CHANGE IN THIS FORECAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED, AND NEITHER HAS THE RANGE OF UNCERTAINTY.
STILL LOOKING AT A RANGE OF 0.75" TO 1.75" (25TH TO 75TH
PERCENTILES) FOR THE NORTH BAY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BAY AREA,
TOTALS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE AT THE BOTTOM END OF THAT RANGE, AND
EVEN LOWER ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. SINCE IT LOOKS LIKE WE'LL BE
LOOKING AT A MOSTLY BENEFICIAL RAINFALL, WIND MAY BE THE BIGGER
STORY HERE. WE'RE STILL IN LINE FOR A BRIEF GUSTY PERIOD WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE MAIN TROUGH PASSES. MODELS ARE STILL SUPPORTIVE OF 50
KT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 850 MB, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A MARGINAL
HAZARDOUS WIND THREAT. STILL TOO EARLY TO ISSUE ANY ADVISORY, BUT WE
ARE EVALUATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIND ADVISORY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES!
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1051 AM PDT SAT NOV 1 2025
STRATUS AND FOG /IFR-LIFR/ ARE SLOWLY MIXING OUT, OTHERWISE IT'S
VFR. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS TO LOCALLY ONSHORE 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
LIGHT WINDS. STRATUS AND FOG /IFR-LIFR/ REDEVELOPS TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING, MIXING OUT BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR EXCEPT TEMPO IFR CEILING DUE TO STRATUS
SUNDAY MORNING 02Z-16Z. WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND 7 TO 14 KNOTS.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...STRATUS AND FOG /IFR-LIFR/ MOSTLY MIXING
OUT, IT'LL BE VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON EXCEPT STRATUS AND FOG MVFR-
IFR MAY LINGER ALONG THE COASTLINE. STRATUS AND FOG /MVFR-IFR/
MOVING INLAND TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. ONSHORE WINDS 5 TO 10
KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1043 AM PDT SAT NOV 1 2025
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH STRONG GUSTS FOR THE INNER WATERS AND OUTER WATERS.
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS FOR THE INNER WATERS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS
FOR THE OUTER WATERS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE MONDAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO BECOME MODERATE AND SEAS
ABATING TO BECOME ROUGH IN THE OUTER WATERS. CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH VERY ROUGH
SEAS FOR THE OUTER WATERS, ROUGH SEAS FOR THE INNER WATERS, STRONG
TO NEAR-GALE SOUTHERLY BREEZES WITH WIDESPREAD GALE FORCE GUSTS,
AND RAINFALL.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 416 AM PDT SAT NOV 1 2025
A LONG PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL BRING AN INCREASED RISK FOR
SNEAKER WAVES, RIP CURRENTS, AND BREAKING WAVES OF 12-17 FEET TO
PACIFIC COAST BEACHES THROUGH MONDAY. SNEAKER WAVES CAN
UNEXPECTEDLY RUN SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER UP THE BEACH THAN NORMAL,
INCLUDING OVER ROCKS AND JETTIES. RIP CURRENTS ARE TYPICALLY MORE
FREQUENT AND STRONGER IN THE VICINITY OF JETTIES, INLETS, AND
PIERS. SWIMMERS SHOULD ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD. REMAIN OUT OF
THE WATER TO AVOID HAZARDOUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS AND NEVER TURN
YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN!
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...BEHRINGER
LONG TERM....BEHRINGER
AVIATION...CANEPA
MARINE...CANEPA
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