850
FXUS66 KMTR 020924
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
124 AM PST SUN NOV 2 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 124 AM PDT SUN NOV 2 2025
- QUIET AND WARM CONTINUES TODAY WITH HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS
ALONG PACIFIC COAST BEACHES
- BENEFICIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HIGHEST TOTALS NORTH BAY.
- POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY
MORNING, 40-50 MPH ACROSS BAY AREA AND NORTH BAY.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 124 AM PDT SUN NOV 2 2025
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ANOTHER WARM AND QUIET DAY TODAY BEFORE THINGS START TO CHANGE FOR
THE WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AWAY FROM
THE COAST, NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE COAST. PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS
MORNING ALONG COASTAL AREAS WILL MIMIC YESTERDAY MORNING, BUT GIVE
WAY TO CLEAR SKIES BY MID-MORNING.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 124 AM PDT SUN NOV 2 2025
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ONCE AGAIN NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS. THIS
DOES HINT TOWARDS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST FROM
SIMPLY MOVING CLOSER TO THE EVENT. A COUPLE OF ITEMS TO NOTE NOW
THAT SOME DETAILS ARE MORE CLEAR. THUNDER CHANCES ARE INCREASING
WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT. THIS WOULD PRIMARILY
AFFECT NORTH BAY COUNTIES AT THIS JUNCTURE, BUT STILL CAN'T RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO ACROSS THE
GREATER BAY AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRIOR TO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS A SMALLER
CHANCE AND THE SHOWERS WOULD BE LIGHTER IN GENERAL, BUT THESE
SHOWERS ALONG THE WARM FRONT ARE TYPICALLY EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS
DESPITE THEIR LACKLUSTER APPEARANCE ON RADAR (LOOKUP WARM RAIN VS.
COLD RAIN PROCESSES IF YOUR CURIOUS). DESPITE THIS SYSTEM NOT
REALLY "STALLING", WE CAN SOMETIMES SEE THESE FEATURES ACT AS A
PRECURSOR FOR FLOODING IMPACTS ONCE THE HEAVIER RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. THE NORTH BAY IS CURRENTLY TEETERING
ON THE EDGE OF THIS AXIS OF WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS TUESDAY, SO WE'LL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT WHEN ASSESSING THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCAL FLOODING IMPACTS. STILL LOOKING AT WIND BEING MORE OF A
PROBLEM ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AND BAY AREA AS A WHOLE. 50-60 KT
FLOW AT 850 MB WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN 40-50 MPH GUSTS
AS THE FRONT PASSES. WIND IMPACTS LESSEN AS YOU GO MOVE SOUTH.
STILL TOO EARLY TO NAIL DOWN WIND ADVISORY DECISIONS, BUT
WEDNESDAY MORNING CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE A CANDIDATE FOR
AREAS NORTH OF SAN JOSE AND THROUGH THE NORTH BAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 950 PM PDT SAT NOV 1 2025
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST REMAINS LOW TO MEDIUM, BUT THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW A GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF MARINE
STRATUS. AS A RESULT, THE LATEST ITERATION OF THE TAFS HOLDS
REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BETWEEN
06-08Z SUN AT KHAF AND NORTH BAY SITES WITH CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES APPROACHING AIRPORT MINIMUMS. THE WINDOW FOR IFR
FARTHER SOUTH REMAINS THE SAME AROUND 10Z AT KOAK. INTERMITTENT
MVFR AT KSJC IS STILL ANTICIPATED, THROUGH THE PROBABILITY IS LOW
AND I DO ANTICIPATE THAT IT'LL BE BRIEF/OCCASIONAL. THE
COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER SHOULD EQUATE TO A RAPID EROSION OF
STRATUS, MIST, AND FOG BY 17-18Z, EXCEPT AT KHAF WHERE POOR
CONDITIONS REMAIN THROUGH MID- AFTERNOON.
VICINITY OF SFO...MVFR AND INTERMITTENT IFR ARE FORECAST WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. AT PRESENT TIME, CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
INVADE JUST PRIOR TO 11Z WITH OCCASIONAL IFR. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO REMAIN INSISTENT IN IFR AND THIS IS THE TRICKIEST PART OF THE
FORECAST, AS CLIMATOLOGICALLY THIS IS OUT OF THE NORM. FUTURE
UPDATES WILL LIKELY NEED TO ALTER THE TIMING. VFR IS ANTICIPATED
TO RETURN LATE MORNING WITH DIURNAL NW'LY BREEZES FUNNELING
THROUGH THE SAN BRUNO GAP. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT
MVFR/IFR MAY RETURN AFTER 00Z MONDAY, BUT FROM A BIG PICTURE,
THERE MAY BE SOME DRY AIR THAT CHEWS UP SOME OF THE MOIST MARINE
LAYER AIR ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. GIVEN SOME
OF THE VARIABILITY IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE TAF, I'LL
ADVERTISE VFR, BUT TRENDS IN MODEL OUTPUT WILL BE MONITORED.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VAPS CURRENTLY, BUT LOSS OF VAPS LIKELY BY
THE SUNDAY AM PUSH. CIGS SHOULD SCATTER NEAR OR AFTER 18Z SUNDAY.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...STRATUS HAS BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO
DEVELOP, BUT IT IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
MONTEREY PENINSULA. LIFR TO VLIFR VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS APPEAR
TO BE MOST LIKELY AT THESE TERMINALS FOR A FEW HOURS ON SUNDAY
MORNING WITH VFR NOT RETURNING NEAR OR AFTER 18Z. CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING OF STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS LOW, BUT THERE'S HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT BY THE 6Z TO 9Z TIMEFRAME THAT LIFR/VLIFR WILL BE
IN PLACE AT THE TERMINALS.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 922 PM PDT SAT NOV 1 2025
FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE BREEZES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
BEFORE ABATING EARLY MONDAY, EXCEPT FOR REGIONS NEAR MONTEREY BAY
AND SOUTH OF POINT SUR. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY, BEFORE A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.
VERY HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS
GALE FORCE, POSSIBLY SEVERE, WIND GUSTS ARE PROBABLE. THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL WILL BE FOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF POINT REYES. STEEP
SEAS AND VERY ROUGH CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED AROUND MID-
WEEK. IN ADDITION, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO POSE
LIGHTNING, HIGHER END WIND, AND POOR VISIBILITY RISK TO ALL
MARINERS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 922 PM PDT SAT NOV 1 2025
A LONG PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL BRING AN INCREASED RISK FOR
SNEAKER WAVES, RIP CURRENTS, AND BREAKING WAVES OF UP TO 20 FEET
TO PACIFIC COAST BEACHES THROUGH MONDAY. THE SNEAKER WAVE RISK
REMAINS LOW TO MODERATE THROUGH MONDAY AND WILL LIKELY ELEVATE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH SURF CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FACING BEACHES.
REMEMBER, SNEAKER WAVES CAN UNEXPECTEDLY RUN SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER
UP THE BEACH THAN NORMAL, INCLUDING OVER ROCKS AND JETTIES. RIP
CURRENTS ARE TYPICALLY MORE FREQUENT AND STRONGER IN THE VICINITY
OF JETTIES, INLETS, AND PIERS. SWIMMERS SHOULD ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A
LIFEGUARD. STAY OFF THE ROCKS, REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER TO AVOID
HAZARDOUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS, AND NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON THE
OCEAN!
BAIN/SARMENT
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PT ARENA TO
PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM-PT PINOS TO PT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...BEHRINGER
LONG TERM....BEHRINGER
AVIATION...BAIN
MARINE...BAIN
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