613
FXUS66 KMTR 021151
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
351 AM PST SUN NOV 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 124 AM PDT SUN NOV 2 2025
- QUIET AND WARM CONTINUES TODAY WITH HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS
ALONG PACIFIC COAST BEACHES
- BENEFICIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HIGHEST TOTALS NORTH BAY.
- POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY
MORNING, 40-50 MPH ACROSS BAY AREA AND NORTH BAY.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 124 AM PDT SUN NOV 2 2025
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ANOTHER WARM AND QUIET DAY TODAY BEFORE THINGS START TO CHANGE FOR
THE WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AWAY FROM
THE COAST, NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE COAST. PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS
MORNING ALONG COASTAL AREAS WILL MIMIC YESTERDAY MORNING, BUT GIVE
WAY TO CLEAR SKIES BY MID-MORNING.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 124 AM PDT SUN NOV 2 2025
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ONCE AGAIN NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS. THIS
DOES HINT TOWARDS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST FROM
SIMPLY MOVING CLOSER TO THE EVENT. A COUPLE OF ITEMS TO NOTE NOW
THAT SOME DETAILS ARE MORE CLEAR. THUNDER CHANCES ARE INCREASING
WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT. THIS WOULD PRIMARILY
AFFECT NORTH BAY COUNTIES AT THIS JUNCTURE, BUT STILL CAN'T RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO ACROSS THE
GREATER BAY AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRIOR TO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS A SMALLER
CHANCE AND THE SHOWERS WOULD BE LIGHTER IN GENERAL, BUT THESE
SHOWERS ALONG THE WARM FRONT ARE TYPICALLY EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS
DESPITE THEIR LACKLUSTER APPEARANCE ON RADAR (LOOKUP WARM RAIN VS.
COLD RAIN PROCESSES IF YOUR CURIOUS). DESPITE THIS SYSTEM NOT
REALLY "STALLING", WE CAN SOMETIMES SEE THESE FEATURES ACT AS A
PRECURSOR FOR FLOODING IMPACTS ONCE THE HEAVIER RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. THE NORTH BAY IS CURRENTLY TEETERING
ON THE EDGE OF THIS AXIS OF WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS TUESDAY, SO WE'LL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT WHEN ASSESSING THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCAL FLOODING IMPACTS. STILL LOOKING AT WIND BEING MORE OF A
PROBLEM ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AND BAY AREA AS A WHOLE. 50-60 KT
FLOW AT 850 MB WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN 40-50 MPH GUSTS
AS THE FRONT PASSES. WIND IMPACTS LESSEN AS YOU GO MOVE SOUTH.
STILL TOO EARLY TO NAIL DOWN WIND ADVISORY DECISIONS, BUT
WEDNESDAY MORNING CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE A CANDIDATE FOR
AREAS NORTH OF SAN JOSE AND THROUGH THE NORTH BAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 347 AM PST SUN NOV 2 2025
CURRENTLY A MIXED BAG OF LIFR-VFR AT THE TERMINALS WITH PATCHY LIFR
STRATUS AND DENSE FOG BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE REGION. AS THIS IS A
SHALLOW AND THIN CLOUD LAYER, VFR IS EXPECTED BY LATE-MORNING.
SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC PERSISTENCE FORECAST ON TAP TONIGHT WITH
THE HELP OF DRY AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION.
VICINITY OF SFO...CURRENTLY VFR WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE THAT VFR WILL HANG ON THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE HELP
OF A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER THAT WILL BE UNABLE TO SNEAK THROUGH THE
SAN BRUNO GAP. THE AREA TO WATCH THIS MORNING WILL BE THE PATCH OF
STRATUS THAT HAS DEVELOPED JUST TO THE NORTH OF SJC AS THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT IT EXPANDS QUICKLY ENOUGH TO REACH THE TERMINAL. WINDS
WILL BACK THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE WESTERLY FLOW SETS IN WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. 40% CHANCE FOR A SUB-VFR CEILING TO DEVELOP AT
THE TERMINAL TONIGHT.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...THE SAN MATEO BRIDGE APPROACH WILL BE IMPACTED
EARLIER AND POTENTIALLY LATER THAN SFO ITSELF DUE TO THE LOCATION OF
THE LIFR STRATUS PATCH.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...CURRENTLY VFR WITH EASTERLY FLOW AT MRY AND
VFR WITH DRAINAGE FLOW AT SNS. DENSE FOG HAS BEEN PUSHED OUT TO THE
MONTEREY BAY WITH THE HELP OF THE WINDS. AS LONG AS AN OTTER EDDY
DOESN'T DEVELOP, VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
LIFR CONDITIONS LINGERING IN THE AREA. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN TONIGHT.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM PST SUN NOV 2 2025
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL TODAY, DIMINISHING
TO BECOME A MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE TOMORROW. WIDESPREAD
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR-GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GALE
FORCE GUSTS, ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS, RAINFALL, AND A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 347 AM PST SUN NOV 2 2025
A LONG PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL BRING AN INCREASED RISK FOR
SNEAKER WAVES, RIP CURRENTS, AND BREAKING WAVES OF UP TO 20 FEET
TO PACIFIC COAST BEACHES THROUGH TOMORROW. HIGH SURF CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FACING BEACHES.
REMEMBER, SNEAKER WAVES CAN UNEXPECTEDLY RUN SIGNIFICANTLY
FARTHER UP THE BEACH THAN NORMAL, INCLUDING OVER ROCKS AND
JETTIES. RIP CURRENTS ARE TYPICALLY MORE FREQUENT AND STRONGER IN
THE VICINITY OF JETTIES, INLETS, AND PIERS. SWIMMERS SHOULD ALWAYS
SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD. STAY OFF THE ROCKS, REMAIN OUT OF THE
WATER TO AVOID HAZARDOUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS, AND NEVER TURN YOUR
BACK ON THE OCEAN!
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PT ARENA TO
PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST MONDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM-PT PINOS TO PT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...BEHRINGER
LONG TERM....BEHRINGER
AVIATION...SARMENT
MARINE...SARMENT
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